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6023

元大期貨 Finance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 元大期貨 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 78Quality 42Growth 90Momentum 59Chips 92

Is 元大期貨 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 11th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.5%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 13th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 47th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 11.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 80.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.33
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 兆豐-復興 holds 1,067 lots
  • sellers have 285 lots left, ~57 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +6% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 兆豐-復興 has accumulated 1,067 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 319 lots, has sold 25%, 238 left, ~42 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.02pp, mid holders -2, retail +0.09pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,165 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
兆豐-復興台灣摩根士丹利元大-台北新加坡商瑞銀永豐金-敦北新光
Distributing
凱基-台北凱基-三重(牛牛牛)亞-網路臺銀台新-高雄元大-北三重
Desks
own scale
元大-敦化台新-台中凱基富邦-宜蘭
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 兆豐-復興 +1,067
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +860
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 元大-台北 +271
    sold 19%
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +226
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-敦北 +113
    sold 0%
  • 新光 +112
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 238 left
    sold 25%· ~43 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-三重 6 left
    sold 89%· paused recently
  • (牛牛牛)亞-網路 7 left
    sold 84%· paused recently
  • 臺銀 19 left
    sold 53%· paused recently
  • 台新-高雄 17 left
    sold 43%· ~57 sessions to clear
  • 元大-北三重 16 left
    sold 33%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元大-敦化 -940
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 台新-台中 -502
    unclassified
  • 凱基 -239
    unclassified
  • 富邦-宜蘭 -200
    unclassified
Still selling 285 lots ~57 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +952 absorbed / -73 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -141 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 80.38%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

80 historical occurrences (since 2007-11-28)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 77, Median +1.33%, Excess +0.65%, Beat mkt rate 45.5%；60-day: Win 64.5%, Sample 76, Median +1.94%, Excess +0.31%, Beat mkt rate 47.4%；120-day: Win 62.7%, Sample 75, Median +2.52%, Excess -1.05%, Beat mkt rate 44%

120 days after: historical avg +5.01%

20-day +1.51%
60-day +3.43%
120-day +5.01%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
63.6%
64.5%
62.7%
Sample
77
76
75
Median
+1.33%
+1.94%
+2.52%
Excess
+0.65%
+0.31%
-1.05%
Beat mkt rate
45.5%
47.4%
44%

Over 75 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.01%, lagged the market by 1.05 pts; win rate 62.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 425+28.1% +21% 100% +12.9%
20-40 811+21.2% +16.3% 91.1% +0.1%
40-60 You are here1004+12.5% +9.4% 85.3% -8.4%
60-80 373+10.2% +5.8% 75.9% -3.7%
80-100 416+10.2% +4.1% 90.1% +9.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 11.74, at the 47.0th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+19%
Win rate 94.7% Excess +8.6%
528d
Now
+6.3%
Win rate 72.4% Excess -3.7%
1307d
+2.5%
Win rate 64% Excess +1.4%
369d
60-day momentum down
+11.6%
Win rate 96.2% Excess +2.8%
370d
+3.7%
Win rate 64.3% Excess -7.8%
392d
+2.4%
Win rate 81.4% Excess +2.6%
183d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 1307 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.3%, win rate 72.4%, lagged the market by 3.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

36 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.26%, win rate 70.6%, beating the market by +0.19 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

37 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.62%, win rate 68.6%, beating the market by +2.03 pts on average.

What does 元大期貨 do? Company profile

金融保險業／證券期貨業 上櫃（櫃買中心 TPEx）

Overview

6023 對應證券為元大期貨股份有限公司，為上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於1997年，2007年11月28日上櫃，總部位於台北市中山區南京東路二段77號。董事長為林添富，總經理為高毅瑞，發言人為袁良慧。官方基本資料揭露實收資本額為新台幣3,199,762,880元、普通股319,976,288股、面額10元；2025年全年法人說明會列示資本額32億元、淨值194.4億元、員工397人、據點245處、國際交易所會員資格16個，並列示轉投資事業包含元大期貨（香港）與元大國際（新加坡）。主要股東方面，元大期貨公司治理頁面於115年3月28日揭露元大金融控股股份有限公司持股208,171千股、持股65.05%，為最大股東；國泰人壽全權委託國泰投信投資帳戶（台股D）持股8.11%；羅盛豐股份有限公司持股6.00%。

Business

元大期貨為專營期貨公司，核心業務包括期貨經紀、期貨顧問、期貨自營、槓桿交易商，以及期貨交易輔助人（IB）相關服務。公司透過期貨分公司、元大證券與外部IB通路，以及手機與網路電子交易平台服務一般投資人、專業法人與境外機構。產品與服務涵蓋國內期貨與選擇權、國外期貨與選擇權、外幣保證金交易、法人電子下單串接、人工下單執行、客製化報表、研究報告與跨境金融諮詢。商業模式以交易量與客戶保證金規模為主要驅動，收入來源主要來自經紀手續費、客戶保證金相關利息收益、自營及金融商品交易損益、槓桿交易與顧問服務等；官方法說會顯示2025年元大期貨在全體專營期貨商稅後淨利占36.8%、經紀手續費收入占24.4%，2025年稅後淨利26.55億元、EPS 8.45元、ROE 15.02%。2025年國內期權市占18.4%、國外期權市占24.1%、客戶保證金市占31.5%；股期月均交易量324萬口，個股期貨市占第一。主要客戶包含散戶交易人、專業投資人、法人、外資機構、投信與資產管理業者、需要以期貨或選擇權避險的企業與金融機構；終端應用為交易、避險、套利、資產配置、外匯與商品風險管理。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望重點在三條主線：一是期權市場量能與波動度。台灣期交所資料與公司法說會顯示，2025年國內期權交易量仍維持高檔，外期交易量突破4,500萬口，美盤、新加坡盤、日本盤需求成長，若台股、匯率、利率、商品與國際政治風險持續波動，避險與投機需求將支撐經紀手續費與客戶保證金規模。二是國際化與跨境整合。公司規劃以台灣、香港、新加坡形成區域平台，朝亞洲大型上手期貨商推進，擴大海外經紀、清算、商品與外匯業務；元大國際（新加坡）於2025年正式開業，有助於銜接東南亞與大宗商品、外匯市場。三是數位與資訊基礎建設。公司2026年規劃資訊資本支出預算擴大至3.7億元，推動核心帳務系統汰換、國外期貨核心系統升級、異地備援、直連CME下單系統、五大交易平台整合、交易達人App上線、CRM、OCR、智能客服與數位資料倉儲。潛在成長動能包括主動式ETF與Covered Call等選擇權應用、企業與投信避險需求、外期與外匯商品拓展、電子交易占比提升、金控通路綜效與法人客戶滲透。主要風險包括市場交易量下滑、低波動造成手續費衰退、國內外監理規範變動、保證金提高導致調整後淨資本額壓力、利率下行壓縮利息收益、資訊系統與資安風險、客戶違約與極端行情風控風險、國際政治與匯率波動，以及凱基期貨、群益期貨、永豐期貨等同業在市占與價格上的競爭。2027至2028年具體財務數字未見公司公開可驗證指引，相關展望屬依公司策略與產業趨勢推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 臺灣期貨交易所股份有限公司 國內期貨與選擇權主要交易、結算與統計基礎設施；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 臺灣證券交易所股份有限公司 股票期貨、股權類衍生商品與證券市場相關基礎設施；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 證券櫃檯買賣中心 元大期貨掛牌市場與部分金融商品、資訊揭露基礎設施；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 元大金融控股股份有限公司 2885 最大股東與金控母公司，提供品牌、資本、治理與集團資源。
  • 元大證券股份有限公司 集團證券通路與IB合作來源，元大期貨法說會列示元大證券147家據點；元大證券本身未上市櫃，母公司元大金控為上市公司。
  • 芝加哥商業交易所集團（CME Group） 國外期貨重要交易所與下單連線對象；美國上市公司，非台股上市櫃。
  • 香港交易及結算所有限公司 香港市場期貨及選擇權相關交易所；香港上市公司，非台股上市櫃。
  • 新加坡交易所（SGX） 新加坡盤及亞洲跨境期貨交易重要交易所；新加坡上市公司，非台股上市櫃。
Downstream
  • 一般期貨與選擇權交易人 零售客戶，透過分公司、IB、手機App與網路平台交易國內外期權商品；非公司主體。
  • 專業投資機構與外資法人 法人客戶，使用電子下單串接、人工下單、代理人服務與客製化報表；多為境內外機構，非特定台股上市櫃公司。
  • 投信與資產管理業者 使用期貨、選擇權、外匯與商品衍生性工具進行基金避險、增益與資產配置；包含未上市投信及部分金融集團子公司。
  • 企業與商品、外匯避險客戶 使用外幣保證金、期貨與選擇權管理匯率、利率、商品價格與股價風險；客戶名單未公開。
  • 元大期貨（香港） 子公司與海外服務平台，提供香港與亞太跨境期貨服務；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 元大國際（新加坡） 新加坡海外平台，法說會列為拓展清算、大宗商品及外匯業務的重要節點；非台股上市櫃公司。

Competitors

  • 凱基期貨股份有限公司 台灣主要期貨商之一，台灣期交所市占率資料顯示其期貨與選擇權市占居前；公司本身未上市櫃，隸屬凱基金控體系。
  • 群益期貨股份有限公司 台灣主要期貨商之一，台灣期交所市占率資料列示其期貨、選擇權及全市場市占居前；公司本身未上市櫃。
  • 永豐期貨股份有限公司 台灣主要期貨商之一，與元大期貨在國內外期貨經紀與法人服務競爭；公司本身未上市櫃，屬永豐金控體系。
  • 統一期貨股份有限公司 台灣期貨商，於期貨經紀、IB與電子交易服務上競爭；公司本身未上市櫃。
  • 國泰期貨股份有限公司 台灣期貨商，背靠國泰金控體系，於金融集團客戶與期權經紀業務競爭；公司本身未上市櫃。
  • 富邦期貨股份有限公司 台灣期貨商，背靠富邦金控體系，於零售與法人期貨經紀業務競爭；公司本身未上市櫃。
  • 華南期貨股份有限公司 台灣期貨商，於國內期貨與選擇權經紀市場競爭；公司本身未上市櫃。
  • 國票期貨股份有限公司 台灣期貨商，於期貨經紀與電子交易業務競爭；公司本身未上市櫃。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.