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6128
steady quality, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is 上福 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 44th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.3%.
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Valuation is low.PE is in the 8th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 36th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.5% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 華南永昌-高雄 has accumulated 1,110 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 永豐金證券 peaked at 71 lots, has sold 80%, 14 left, ~9 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.04pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.11pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -76 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 華南永昌-高雄 +1,110
- 第一金-桃園 +765
- 富邦-南員林 +454
- 兆豐-台中港 +145
- 富邦-木柵 +100
- 元大-大甲 +95
Distributing
- 永豐金證券 14 left
- 群益金鼎-彰化 29 left
- 摩根大通 4 left
- 臺銀-民權 17 left
- 元富-台中 16 left
- 國泰-敦南 17 left
Desks
- 群益金鼎-中港 -978
- 港商野村 -213
- 元大-沙鹿 -194
- 元大-清水 -152
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 567 | +14% | +14.8% | 80.4% | -9.8% |
| 20-40 You are here | 482 | +12.4% | +6.6% | 70.7% | -11.9% |
| 40-60 | 499 | +8.7% | +10.4% | 59.5% | +5.3% |
| 60-80 | 472 | +7.6% | +12.2% | 69.1% | -1.4% |
| 80-100 | 877 | +2.5% | +3.4% | 53.8% | -9.1% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 10.5, at the 36.1th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 416 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 3.2%, win rate 57.7%, lagged the market by 0.2%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.26%, win rate 46.2%, beating the market by +2.18 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
57 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.13%, win rate 58%, beating the market by +3.59 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
46 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.72%, win rate 48.9%, beating the market by -3.82 pts on average.
What does 上福 do? Company profile
Overview
6128 對應證券為上福全球科技股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於1978年7月12日，2001年12月25日上櫃，2003年6月16日上市，總部位於台中市梧棲區自強路50號。董事長為王國印，總經理為王瑞麒；官方揭露2025年底資本額約新台幣12.76億元，已發行普通股127,588,740股。104人力銀行揭露員工數約500人，屬台灣徵才口徑；全球合併員工數未能由官方年報完整確認。主要股東截至2025年4月21日包含寬府股份有限公司21.27%、宏新利股份有限公司11.59%、王瑞麒4.46%、義福投資1.95%、聖福投資1.85%、王吳春枝1.72%、台灣永光化學工業股份有限公司1.68%、全通科技股份有限公司1.61%、王瑞拱1.51%、艾斯可投資有限公司1.17%。公司2017年以9,600萬美元收購美國事務機耗材通路商 Katun，形成製造與全球通路整合；另持有久福興業，跨足台中港酒店等其他營運。
Business
上福核心業務為影印機、雷射印表機、傳真機、多功能事務機相關碳粉匣、耗材、空匣、回收槽、感光滾筒組與OPC感光鼓精密齒輪之研發、製造、銷售及售後耗材通路。公司自有品牌包含 GPI、Cartridge Web；Cartridge Web 主要銷售雷射印表機相容碳粉匣完成品，包含非主流OEM品牌全新相容卡匣及主流OEM品牌再生卡匣，強調專利迴避、相容性與多國認證。2025年前三季合併收入39.54億元，其中事務機器耗材部門外部收入37.63億元，約佔95.16%，其他部門1.91億元，約佔4.84%；財務資料顯示商品銷售收入37.63億元、其他營業收入1.91億元。MoneyDJ揭露2024年產品營收佔比約為彩色與黑白碳粉匣等耗材96%、其他4%；銷售地區以歐美為主，美國22%、荷蘭14%、義大利11%、英國9%、墨西哥9%、德國8%、法國8%、西班牙5%、台灣4%、巴西4%、其他6%。商業模式包含台中梧棲廠與衛星工廠體系製造，透過 Katun 在全球售後服務市場銷售，Katun 擁有逾1萬家中小型通路客戶，市場遍及多國；下游客戶包含全球碳粉廠、區域代理商、通路商與終端企業/消費列印設備售後耗材需求。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年營運承壓：前三季合併營收39.54億元，年減1.68億元，營業利益1.25億元，年減2.04億元；美國子公司 Katun 受美國關稅推升進口成本，加上2024年下半年推出的 Arivia 自有品牌事務機導入初期銷售不如預期，導致 Katun 營業利益轉虧，上福於2025年第三季提列商譽、客戶關係與品牌商標等無形資產減損13.47億元，前三季稅後虧損12.12億元、EPS -9.50元。2025全年外部資料顯示營收約52.51億元、EPS約-9.56元，2026年第一季EPS回到0.28元，顯示減損後本業仍需觀察獲利修復。2026至2028成長動能主要來自：一、原有卡匣耗材與OPC精密齒輪穩定汰換需求；二、Katun 全球通路與上福製造/研發整合，包含將研發與供應鏈管理更多移回台中梧棲新總部以降低人事與管理成本；三、原廠合作銷售合約與新產品、新市場、新客戶開發；四、Arivia 事務機自有品牌若完成區域行銷整合與精實布局，可能帶來較高附加價值。主要風險包含列印耗材長期市場成熟、辦公室無紙化、原廠專利與相容耗材法律風險、中國紅色供應鏈低價競爭、美國關稅與進口成本、美元及歐元匯率波動、Katun 併購後整合與品牌投資回收不確定、Arivia 銷售不如預期，以及2025年大額減損反映過去併購預期效益下修。2027至2028展望較依賴公司能否把Katun通路、台灣研發供應鏈與新品牌策略轉化為穩定毛利與現金流，目前可見公開資料不足以量化營收或EPS目標。
Supply Chain
- 塑膠主體及配件供應商 主要原物料之一；公司揭露碳粉匣與耗材原料包含塑膠主體及配件，供應商多未公開具名。
- 顯像元件、晶片、碳粉、泡棉與包裝材料供應商 主要原物料與零組件；公開資料未確認具名上市櫃供應商。
- 三十多家衛星工廠 上福官方稱建立三十多家衛星工廠，多位於十五分鐘車程內，以供應相關零組件；個別公司名稱未公開確認。
- Katun Corporation 美國未上市子公司，為全球OEM相容事務機器耗材及售後服務市場通路商；銷售影印機、印表機、傳真機、多功能事務機相關卡匣與耗材。
- Katun歐洲與拉美通路子公司 包含 Katun E.D.C. B.V.、Katun Benelux、Katun Germany、Katun U.K.、Katun France、Katun Spain、Katun Italy、PNA Mexico 等未上市子公司，負責區域銷售與通路。
- 全球碳粉廠、區域代理商與通路商 上福核心客戶群；2017年收購Katun前後皆以全球耗材通路與代理商為主要下游，終端應用為影印機、雷射印表機、傳真機與多功能事務機售後耗材。
Competitors
- G&G／格之格／Ninestar 中國耗材品牌與集團，Ninestar 為中國A股上市公司，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ列為上福碳粉匣主要競爭對手。
- Print-Rite／天威 中國/香港列印耗材業者，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ列為上福碳粉匣主要競爭對手。
- 北京中恆 中國列印耗材競爭業者，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ列為上福碳粉匣主要競爭對手。
- HP Inc. 美國上市原廠印表機與耗材公司，非台股掛牌；在原廠耗材與相容耗材市場形成替代競爭。
Sources（15）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.