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6241

鑫永洋 Communications & Internet As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 鑫永洋 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 30Quality 63Growth 68Momentum 54Chips 55

Is 鑫永洋 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 52th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.7%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 77th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 83th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 22.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral -0.08
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 元大-蘆洲中正 holds 441 lots
  • sellers have 210 lots left, ~37 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-蘆洲中正 has accumulated 441 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 高橋 peaked at 132 lots, has sold 58%, 56 left, ~7 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.17pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.24pp — little change.
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-蘆洲中正日進光和-田中凱基-台北中國信託-嘉義德信
Distributing
高橋群益金鼎-台南玉山-台南國票-新莊群益金鼎第一金-台中
Desks
own scale
台新-彰化元大-員林中山永豐金-新竹凱基-市政
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-蘆洲中正 +441
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 日進 +350
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 光和-田中 +195
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +178
    sold 19%· still adding
  • 中國信託-嘉義 +151
    sold 0%
  • 德信 +150
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 高橋 56 left
    sold 58%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎-台南 12 left
    sold 89%· ~2 sessions to clear
  • 玉山-台南 47 left
    sold 45%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 國票-新莊 16 left
    sold 80%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎 43 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 第一金-台中 30 left
    sold 50%· paused recently

Desks

  • 台新-彰化 -934
    unclassified
  • 元大-員林中山 -257
    unclassified
  • 永豐金-新竹 -227
    unclassified
  • 凱基-市政 -203
    unclassified
Still selling 210 lots ~37 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,486 absorbed / -283 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

15 historical occurrences (since 2010-01-28)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 14, Median +18.09%, Excess +11.48%, Beat mkt rate 64.3%；60-day: Win 35.7%, Sample 14, Median -5.91%, Excess -0.08%, Beat mkt rate 35.7%；120-day: Win 28.6%, Sample 14, Median -21.84%, Excess -7.52%, Beat mkt rate 21.4%

120 days after: historical avg -0.84%

20-day +13.67%
60-day +3.76%
120-day -0.84%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.1%
35.7%
28.6%
Sample
14
14
14
Median
+18.09%
-5.91%
-21.84%
Excess
+11.48%
-0.08%
-7.52%
Beat mkt rate
64.3%
35.7%
21.4%

Over 14 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 0.84%, lagged the market by 7.52 pts; win rate 28.6%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 22.88%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

101 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 50.5%, Sample 97, Median +0.11%, Excess +3.9%, Beat mkt rate 46.4%；60-day: Win 41.2%, Sample 97, Median -2.68%, Excess +1.28%, Beat mkt rate 39.2%；120-day: Win 41.2%, Sample 97, Median -7.63%, Excess -2.21%, Beat mkt rate 35.1%

120 days after: historical avg +5.68%

20-day +4.71%
60-day +5.42%
120-day +5.68%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50.5%
41.2%
41.2%
Sample
97
97
97
Median
+0.11%
-2.68%
-7.63%
Excess
+3.9%
+1.28%
-2.21%
Beat mkt rate
46.4%
39.2%
35.1%

Over 97 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.68%, lagged the market by 2.21 pts; win rate 41.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 30+15.6% +10.8% 100% 0%
20-40 127+14.9% +18.1% 80.3% -76.9%
40-60 104+12.2% +13.4% 76% -25.5%
60-80 128-4.9% +6.2% 54.7% -72%
80-100 You are here338-17.4% -29% 23.7% -93.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 54.4, at the 82.7th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-12.1%
Win rate 27% Excess -18.9%
122d
-6.8%
Win rate 33.9% Excess -21.8%
124d
Now
-7.9%
Win rate 42.9% Excess -25.2%
177d
60-day momentum down
-18.4%
Win rate 30.3% Excess -52.2%
119d
+0.8%
Win rate 73.7% Excess -13.8%
38d
+26.5%
Win rate 59% Excess -25.5%
261d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 177 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 7.9%, win rate 42.9%, lagged the market by 25.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

9 times historically; 60-day forward avg -6.26%, win rate 25%, beating the market by -13.03 pts on average.

What does 鑫永洋 do? Company profile

通信網路業 上櫃（櫃買中心）

Overview

6241 為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，現名鑫永洋科技股份有限公司，原名易通展科技股份有限公司，2026年1月更名為鑫永洋科技股份有限公司。公司成立於1992年3月28日，2003年4月8日上櫃，總部位於臺南市安南區科技五路168號1樓，統一編號86504769。公開資料顯示實收資本額為新台幣4.87億元、已發行普通股4,870萬股；2026年3月20日董事會決議辦理減資彌補虧損，擬減少資本新台幣131,663,300元、銷除13,166,330股、減資比率27.03558521%，減資後股本預計為新台幣355,336,700元，仍待相關程序完成。2026年4月底後董事長為郭金河，總經理與發言人為謝景惠；年報與官網部分舊頁仍可見前董事長孫秀梅，係改選前資料。公司官網列示主要業務為通訊產品製造及買賣；2024年永續報告書揭露員工151人，年報截至2025年3月31日揭露員工約131人，兩者口徑不同。2026年3月2日官網前十大股東包括易昇鋼鐵股份有限公司14,982,712股、30.77%；吳俊毅2,277,000股、4.68%；金智富資產管理股份有限公司1,572,473股、3.23%；劉月真1,239,000股、2.54%；王永聖843,000股、1.73%；郡鼎管理顧問股份有限公司800,000股、1.64%；鍾興博799,535股、1.64%；何浚旗605,000股、1.24%；張碧霞533,000股、1.09%；楊儒傳408,000股、0.84%。公司屬台鋼集團網通設備事業群，官網同列該事業群包含友訊、友勁與鑫永洋。

Business

鑫永洋專注各式聯網設備的設計、研發與製造，定位為網通產品 ODM/OEM 廠，產品包含消費型通訊設備、IoT設備、電信客戶網路設備、無線網路通訊、寬頻通訊、電信與物聯網智慧家庭設備。2024年主要產品營收結構依年報為：多功能路由器新台幣373,945千元、占57.83%；無線橋接/基地台新台幣253,360千元、占39.18%；USB dongle 新台幣3,084千元、占0.48%；其他收入新台幣16,282千元、占2.52%；合計營收新台幣646,671千元。主要商業模式為自行設計研發，並以 OEM/ODM 方式供貨給國內外品牌客戶，由品牌商銷售予一般消費者、企業用戶或電信通路。年報揭露2024年主要銷貨客戶友訊科技股份有限公司占銷貨淨額95.65%，友訊電子設備（上海）有限公司等其他客戶占4.35%，客戶集中度極高。銷售區域以亞洲為主，2024年亞洲占97.79%、歐洲占2.21%。公司產品線涵蓋戶外/室內無線基地台、Mesh Router、Wi-Fi Router、GPON產品、5G/6G無線路由器、交換器、USB無線網卡、IPCAM、智慧門窗感應器、Matter產品等；官網產品頁亦揭露 BE19000 Wi-Fi 7 Mesh Router、Matter無線網路攝影機與智慧門窗感應器等新產品。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以網通產品升級、Wi-Fi 7滲透、IoT/Matter智慧家庭、電信寬頻與去中國化供應鏈需求為主要成長動能。公司年報指出2025年 Wi-Fi 7產品將逐步提升市場占有率並成為歐美消費者選購主流，且2025年全球網通產業在雲端運算、基礎建設需求與庫存調整告一段落下仍具成長動能；公司規劃推出 BE9500/BE7200、BE3600 無線路由器/網狀路由器/延伸器、BE19500 10GPON SFU/HGU、IPCAM、BE6500 USB網卡、電源供應器與16/24 port FE交換器等。中長期策略包括擴展可長期配合的品牌客戶以降低單一客戶與銷售區域集中風險、與關鍵元件及軟體供應商建立技術合作、強化零組件供應商合作、整合網路通訊技術並培養專業研發人才。機會面包括美國寬頻基礎建設、印度與新興市場網路升級、5G FWA/CPE、AI資料中心帶動高階交換器需求、Wi-Fi 7新品放量與美中科技/貿易摩擦下的非中國製造需求。風險面包括客戶集中度非常高、美元計價與匯率波動、中國廠商在歐亞中東非低價競爭、2024年仍為稅後淨損、2026年辦理減資彌補虧損、供應鏈交期與關鍵零組件價格波動。ESG與產品趨勢方面，公司稱將持續研發低功耗、高效能與環保包材產品；永續報告書亦提到2028年起將持續揭露相關溫室氣體資訊，但未揭露2025至2028的量化財務預測。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 晶片組供應商 年報揭露上游零組件包含晶片組，未揭露具體供應商名稱；公司長期與晶片廠商保持密切合作以加速產品開發。
  • 印刷電路板供應商 年報揭露上游包含印刷電路板PCB，未揭露具體供應商名稱。
  • 記憶體與電子零組件供應商 年報揭露上游包含DRAM、EPROM、EEPROM、Relay、Data Pump、TTL等一般通訊電子零組件，未揭露具體供應商名稱。
  • 委外加工與包裝測試合作廠 永續報告書揭露公司自2014年度起加工生產全數委外；年報並稱產品經加工、組合、測試及包裝後供貨，但未揭露委外廠名稱。
Downstream
  • 友訊科技股份有限公司 2332 2024年主要銷貨客戶，占全年銷貨淨額95.65%；為台股上市網通品牌商，亦為關係人，透過自有品牌與全球通路銷售網通設備。
  • 友訊電子設備（上海）有限公司 年報列為主要客戶之一，為友訊相關中國大陸公司，非台股掛牌；2024年與其他客戶合計占銷貨淨額4.35%。
  • 國內外品牌客戶與電信通路 公司以OEM/ODM模式供貨給國內外品牌，由品牌商銷售予一般消費者、公司用戶、通路商與當地電信商；多數客戶名稱未公開。
  • 消費者、企業與電信終端應用 終端應用包含家庭與企業Wi-Fi、Mesh網路、智慧家庭IoT、IPCAM、5G/FWA與寬頻客戶終端設備。

Competitors

Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.