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6265

方土昶 Electronics Distribution As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 方土昶 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 27Quality 96Growth 99Momentum 86Chips 60

Is 方土昶 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~94% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 12.9%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 51th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 55th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.8% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 1076.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.40
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 陽信-石牌 holds 882 lots
  • sellers have 3,956 lots left, ~2251 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 陽信-石牌 has accumulated 882 lots since the start (sold 23%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 5,441 lots, has sold 38%, 3,377 left, ~2251 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -3.79pp, mid holders -9, retail +4.93pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -3,413 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
陽信-石牌群益金鼎-大甲富邦-羅東玉山證券富邦-台北元大-頭份
Distributing
摩根大通新加坡商瑞銀國泰-敦南富邦-南京元大-竹科新光
Desks
own scale
華南永昌-中正凱基-台北群益金鼎-館前美商高盛
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 陽信-石牌 +882
    sold 23%
  • 群益金鼎-大甲 +352
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-羅東 +318
    sold 17%
  • 玉山證券 +282
    sold 0%
  • 富邦-台北 +271
    sold 10%· still adding
  • 元大-頭份 +232
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 摩根大通 3,377 left
    sold 38%· ~2251 sessions to clear
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 268 left
    sold 84%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 304 left
    sold 59%· paused recently
  • 富邦-南京 382 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 元大-竹科 230 left
    sold 54%· paused recently
  • 新光 47 left
    sold 88%· paused recently

Desks

  • 華南永昌-中正 -2,224
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -1,449
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 群益金鼎-館前 -1,040
    unclassified
  • 美商高盛 -964
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 3,956 lots ~2251 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,207 absorbed / -712 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,923 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 1076.35%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

64 historical occurrences (since 2008-05-12)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 68.3%, Sample 63, Median +5.04%, Excess +5.31%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%；60-day: Win 59%, Sample 61, Median +8.33%, Excess +13.22%, Beat mkt rate 50.8%；120-day: Win 60.3%, Sample 58, Median +8.42%, Excess +24.84%, Beat mkt rate 53.4%

120 days after: historical avg +35.26%

20-day +6.89%
60-day +18.38%
120-day +35.26%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
68.3%
59%
60.3%
Sample
63
61
58
Median
+5.04%
+8.33%
+8.42%
Excess
+5.31%
+13.22%
+24.84%
Beat mkt rate
55.6%
50.8%
53.4%

Over 58 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 35.26%, beat the market by 24.84 pts; win rate 60.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 365+26.9% +4.1% 57% -3.8%
20-40 227+10.2% +1.9% 56.8% -13%
40-60 You are here164+7.2% -6.6% 28.7% -7.7%
60-80 302+55.7% +3.5% 60.3% -0.1%
80-100 239+47.6% -2.9% 46.4% +4.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 23.35, at the 55.1th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-2.5%
Win rate 42.4% Excess -7.8%
217d
Now
-11.2%
Win rate 24.4% Excess -6.5%
168d
+21%
Win rate 40.2% Excess +2.6%
301d
60-day momentum down
+5.1%
Win rate 49.2% Excess -5.1%
301d
+13.7%
Win rate 46% Excess +1.8%
161d
+92.3%
Win rate 71.7% Excess +43.6%
269d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 168 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 11.2%, win rate 24.4%, lagged the market by 6.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +29.81%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +23.61 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

22 times historically; 60-day forward avg +17.18%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +14.84 pts on average.

What does 方土昶 do? Company profile

電子通路業（IC／半導體零組件通路） 上櫃（櫃買中心/TPEX）

Overview

6265 為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，市場簡稱多顯示為「方土昶」，公司登記與官網常見名稱為「堃昶股份有限公司」。公司統一編號 16436439，英文名 KUEN CHAANG UPPERTECH CORP.，英文簡稱 KCU。公司成立日期為 1998-01-22，股票於 2003-10-24 上櫃。總部位於新北市新店區寶中路92號10樓，董事長與總經理皆為張政文，發言人林芳燕。實收資本額約新台幣 1,181,721,510 元，已發行普通股 118,172,151 股，特別股 0 股，簽證會計師事務所為資誠聯合會計師事務所。104 人力銀行揭露員工人數約 100 人，此數字屬招聘平台資料，未必等同合併年報正式人數。主要股東／內部人方面，2026年5月富聯網資料顯示哲睿投資股份有限公司為董事長代表人張政文之法人股東，持股 22,321 張、約 18.89%；張政文以總經理身分另持股約 6,796 張、約 5.75%；董事及監察人合計持股約 18.90%，內部人約 24.65%。

Business

公司核心業務為半導體／電子零組件通路，主要代理與經銷記憶體元件等半導體產品，並提供供應鏈、產品導入、客戶服務與技術支援。MoneyDJ 資料指出公司代理半導體品牌廠，例如南亞科技，產品應用涵蓋手機、行動裝置、電腦、網路等 3C 與周邊電子產品。2025年年報摘要顯示營收結構高度集中於記憶體元件：2025年度記憶體元件營收 897,445 仟元，占 98.62%；其他（中成藥、健康調理飲品）營收 12,569 仟元，占 1.38%。公司近年也透過 100% 轉投資子公司布局生技與保健食品／中成藥品牌，包括仁仙國際、仁壽藥業及「仙桃牌」相關產品；此部分目前營收占比仍小。商業模式上，半導體事業主要是向上游記憶體／IC 原廠取得代理或供貨資源，再銷售予下游電子製造、品牌、系統與通路客戶，賺取通路價差、服務加值與庫存調度價值。2025年合併營收 909,917 仟元，較 2024年 558,730 仟元成長 62.85%；2026年1至5月累計營收 1,808,847 仟元，年增 648.38%，但此高成長需觀察是否來自可延續訂單、記憶體價格循環或短期拉貨。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年：公司受惠記憶體產業景氣回升與終端需求改善，2025年合併營收 9.10 億元、年增 62.85%，稅後淨利 8,018.5 萬元，EPS 0.68 元，毛利率由 2024年的 6.30% 升至 20.88%。2026年：截至2026年5月，單月營收 5.36 億元、年增 1,076.35%，1至5月累計營收 18.09 億元、年增 648.38%，短期動能明顯強於2025年；主要觀察點為記憶體元件需求、代理產品線、客戶拉貨與庫存週轉是否同步健康。公司年報展望指出將深耕現有產品線、擴大新產品線、切入新應用市場、開拓新客戶，並提供專業技術支援與完整解決方案；生技事業則強調「仙桃牌」品牌經營、中成藥恢復生產銷售及藥食同源調理飲品開發。2027至2028年：公司未公開提供具體量化財測，以下為基於公開產業資訊與公司年報方向之推估。中長期成長動能可能來自 AI、高效能運算、車用電子、高速網路、物聯網與邊緣裝置帶動記憶體與半導體零組件需求；若公司取得較高毛利新產品線或擴大一線客戶滲透率，營收與毛利率有續升空間。主要風險包括記憶體產業高度循環、價格波動、上游原廠供貨與授權變化、下游客戶拉貨反轉、庫存跌價、應收帳款收款風險、匯率波動、通路商競爭激烈，以及生技／中成藥產品法規、藥證、通路費用與品牌投入不確定性。公司年報亦明確提及全球地緣政治、通膨、主要國家貨幣政策與終端電子需求復甦步調仍具不確定性。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 南亞科技 2408 記憶體原廠；MoneyDJ 指出方土昶代理半導體品牌廠例如南亞科技，屬主要上游供應來源之一。
  • SK hynix 韓國上市記憶體原廠；MoneyDJ 公司互動資料列入供應鏈相關企業，非台股掛牌，stock_id 設為 null。
  • 旺宏電子 2337 台股上市記憶體原廠；MoneyDJ 公司互動資料列入供應鏈相關企業，與公司記憶體通路業務具上游或同產業關聯。
Downstream
  • 緯創資通 3231 下游電子製造／系統客戶；法說會整理與產業資料列為方土昶半導體零組件業務主要客戶之一。
  • 台達電子 2308 下游電源、工業與電子系統客戶；法說會整理列為主要客戶之一。
  • 技嘉科技 2376 下游主機板、顯示卡、伺服器與電腦硬體客戶；法說會整理列為主要客戶之一。
  • 仁寶電腦 2324 下游電子代工與終端裝置客戶；法說會整理列為主要客戶之一。
  • 英華達 英業達集團旗下未上市公司；法說會整理列為主要客戶之一，非台股掛牌。
  • Garmin／台灣國際航電 Garmin 為海外上市集團，台灣國際航電非台股掛牌；法說會整理列為主要客戶之一。

Competitors

  • 大聯大 3702 台股上市電子零組件通路龍頭，MoneyDJ 列為主要競爭者。
  • 文曄科技 3036 台股上市半導體通路商，MoneyDJ 列為主要競爭者。
  • 至上電子 8112 台股上市半導體與電子零組件通路商，與記憶體／IC 通路業務具競爭關係。
  • 倍微科技 6270 台股上櫃電子零組件通路商，MoneyDJ 公司互動資料列入相關競爭／供應鏈企業。
  • 增你強 3028 台股上市電子通路商，財報狗將其列為記憶體通路代表性公司之一。
  • 全達國際 8068 台股上櫃電子通路商，CMoney 同產業參考股之一。
  • 亞矽科技 6113 台股上櫃電子通路商，CMoney 同產業參考股之一。
  • 光菱電子 8032 台股上櫃電子通路商，CMoney 同產業參考股之一。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.