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6412
steady quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 群電 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 42th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.7%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 38th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 87th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 14.6% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Distribution to retail — bearish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +10% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 3,648 lots since the start (sold 13%), still adding.
- Main distributor 新加坡商瑞銀 peaked at 1,559 lots, has sold 40%, 934 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -3.30pp, mid holders +0, retail +3.31pp — drifting down to retail.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,872 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 摩根大通 +3,648
- 中國信託-文心 +3,000
- 元大-鹿港 +1,362
- 台新 +795
- 國泰-敦南 +568
- 台新-大昌 +175
Distributing
- 新加坡商瑞銀 934 left
- 凱基-台北 606 left
- 康和 139 left
- 元大-大天母 44 left
- 第一金-台中 28 left
- 華南永昌-台中 30 left
Desks
- 群益金鼎 -6,533
- 元大證券 -5,519
- 第一金 -3,334
- 國票-敦北法人 -2,034
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 568 | +41% | +25.5% | 85% | +31.7% |
| 20-40 | 345 | +19.3% | +8.6% | 78.3% | +0.5% |
| 40-60 | 530 | +3.5% | +2.2% | 52.8% | -21.1% |
| 60-80 | 342 | +8.4% | +11.2% | 63.2% | -22.2% |
| 80-100 You are here | 294 | +1.2% | -4.7% | 46.3% | -16.5% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 17.79, at the 86.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 372 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 0.9%, win rate 59.9%, lagged the market by 13.5%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.77%, win rate 56.5%, beating the market by -1.54 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
15 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.79%, win rate 46.7%, beating the market by -4.13 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
61 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.31%, win rate 52.5%, beating the market by -1.87 pts on average.
What does 群電 do? Company profile
Overview
6412 對應證券為台灣證券交易所上市普通股「群電」，公司全名為群光電能科技股份有限公司，英文名 Chicony Power Technology Co., Ltd.。公司成立於2008年12月24日，2013年11月8日上市掛牌，總部位於新北市三重區光復路二段69號30樓。董事長為呂進宗，總經理為曾國華，發言人為陳學毅。實收資本額約新台幣40.08億元，已發行普通股約400,769,126股。公司隸屬群光藍天體系，主要股東/法人董事為群光電子股份有限公司（2385），公開資料顯示其持有約2.08億股，另董事李慈靜、總經理曾國華等亦持股。2026年5月法說資料揭露員工人數為10,694人（截至2026年3月31日）；2026年3月法說資料揭露員工人數為10,281人（截至2026年2月28日）。研發中心位於台灣與香港，生產據點包括中國蘇州、重慶、東莞，以及泰國北柳府 Chachoengsao；泰國廠建築面積約100K sqm。2025年合併營收新台幣344.52億元、年減7.3%，稅後淨利20.84億元、年減37.6%，EPS 5.20元，董事會擬配發現金股利3.70元，近年現金股利配發率約維持七成以上。
Business
群電主要從事交換式電源供應器、其他電子零組件與器材、LED應用產品及智慧建築系統業務之研發、製造與銷售，商業模式以電源供應器 OEM/ODM、客製化電力電子設計、製造與售後支援為主，協助 OEM、系統整合廠及終端客戶滿足筆電、電競、伺服器、資料中心、儲存設備、通訊設備與智慧低碳場域需求。主要產品涵蓋筆電電源供應器、桌機/電競電源、伺服器與雲端應用電源、資料中心/儲存器/通訊產品電源、CRPS、ORv3 PSU module、變壓器、功率因素修正器、EV Portable Charger、EV Power Module、LED照明與智慧建築相關產品。官方產品說明指出，群電可提供伺服器入門級450W至數千瓦需求的電源產品，透過硬體與韌體模組化設計縮短開發時間並符合SSI規範。2026年第1季產品組合為 PC 43%、Cloud and Smart Solutions 51%、Consumer Electronics 6%；2025年第4季產品組合為 PC 43%、Cloud and Smart Solutions 52%、Consumer Electronics 5%。2025年雲端智能應用比重已高於PC，顯示公司營收重心逐步由傳統PC電源轉向雲端、AI伺服器、通訊與智慧低碳解決方案。公開法說簡報列示的客戶獎項/合作對象包括 Dell、Lenovo、Bitmain、Gigabyte、Lexmark、Foxconn、HP、Framework 等，代表其下游橫跨全球PC品牌、伺服器/雲端設備、印表機、電競與代工體系。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年：公司受到RTX50系列晶片缺貨、高階電競筆電電源出貨遞延、產品組合不如預期、泰國新廠學習曲線、匯率及消費電子需求偏弱等影響，全年營收與獲利下滑；但雲端智能應用比重維持在五成以上，並持續投入AI伺服器電源、高功率電源與Telecom電源。2026年：法說與新聞資料顯示，公司預期筆電品牌庫存回補、高階機種需求、AI應用、高功率電源、伺服器與Telecom電源新專案，可自第二季起逐步送樣、試產或放量，營運有機會逐季走升；2026年第1季營收77.84億元、EPS 1.01元，產品組合維持穩定，惟年減仍反映2025年基期與PC/智慧建築波動。2027至2028年：屬推估。若AI資料中心建置、高瓦數伺服器PSU、Power Shelf、HVDC/高效率電源架構、GaN/SiC等高功率密度技術持續滲透，群電可望受惠於產品ASP提升與雲端智能占比提高；智慧建築、智慧工廠、冷鏈及低碳解決方案亦可成為非PC中長期成長來源。不確定性與風險包括AI伺服器客戶驗證時程不如預期、價格競爭、台達電/光寶科等大廠競爭、PC與消費性電子循環、關鍵半導體與GPU供應、原物料與電子零件成本、匯率、新台幣/人民幣波動、美國關稅與地緣政治、泰國產能爬坡良率與學習曲線、智慧建築專案認列時點，以及客戶集中度與終端需求波動。
Supply Chain
- 德州儀器 Texas Instruments 美國上市公司；群電公開宣布筆電電源供應器採用TI整合式GaN解決方案，TI為電源IC/GaN控制器與功率元件技術合作夥伴。
- 英飛凌 Infineon Technologies 德國上市公司；群電頒予其氮化鎵策略合作夥伴獎，英飛凌提供筆電、電競、伺服器與儲存設備等ICT應用之GaN電源供應器解決方案。
- 電子零組件、磁性元件、PCB、機構件與電力半導體供應商群 供應電源供應器所需控制IC、MOSFET/GaN/SiC、變壓器、被動元件、PCB、散熱與機構件；未能由公開資料逐一確認特定台股供應商，因此不填個別stock_id。
- Dell Technologies 美國上市公司；官方法說列示Dell頒發Adapter相關獎項，推估為筆電/電源產品品牌客戶或合作對象。
- HP Inc. 美國上市公司；官方法說列示HP筆電與印表機電源品質獎、Supplier of the Year、Quality Award等，為PC/印表機電源下游客戶或合作對象。
- Lenovo 聯想 香港上市公司；官方法說列示Lenovo品質、智慧製造與鑽石獎等，為筆電/PC電源下游客戶或合作對象。
- 技嘉科技 2376 台股上市公司；官方法說列示Gigabyte Best Partner Award與永續獎，為電競/PC相關下游客戶或合作對象。
- 鴻海精密 Foxconn 2317 台股上市公司；官方法說列示Foxconn Excellent Strategic Partner Award與Quality Award，為代工/系統整合下游客戶或合作對象。
- Bitmain 比特大陸 未上市公司；官方法說列示Bitmain Best Quality Award及2024 Award，推估為高功率電源或特定應用下游客戶。
- Lexmark 非台股掛牌公司；官方法說列示多次PSU品質獎，為印表機/電源相關下游客戶或合作對象。
- Framework 未上市公司；官方法說列示Framework Certificate Appreciation 2025，推估為筆電/PC電源合作對象。
Competitors
- 台達電 2308 台股上市；全球電源與電源管理大廠，AI伺服器、資料中心電源、電源模組及散熱整合能力強，為群電在高階電源與雲端應用的重要競爭者。
- 光寶科 2301 台股上市；電源供應器、雲端與伺服器電源、電力電子產品供應商，與群電在PC、雲端及伺服器電源市場競爭。
- 康舒 6282 台股上市；電源供應器、工業電源、通訊與伺服器電源廠商，為群電在電源供應器與高功率應用市場同業。
- 全漢 3015 台股上市；FSP集團，PC、工業、醫療、伺服器與AI伺服器電源產品供應商，為群電同業競爭者。
- 飛宏 2457 台股上市；電源供應器、充電器與電源解決方案廠商，在消費、通訊、工業及充電應用與群電部分產品線競爭。
- 海韻電子 未上市公司；高階PC與工業電源供應器品牌/製造商，為電源供應器產業競爭者。
Sources（19）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.