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6414

樺漢 Computer & Peripherals As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 樺漢 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 60Quality 56Growth 77Momentum 75Chips 94

Is 樺漢 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 46th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.9%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 36th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 38th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 14.7% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 35.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.87
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 5,948 lots
  • sellers have 2,587 lots left, ~48 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +26% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 5,948 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 2,188 lots, has sold 28%, 1,572 left, ~48 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.85pp, mid holders +9, retail -2.26pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -18 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利凱基-台北摩根大通花旗環球新加坡商瑞銀永豐金-匯立
Distributing
美商高盛美林富邦-建國新光國泰-桃園福邦證券
Desks
own scale
永豐金證券元大證券凱基富邦證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +5,948
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +4,955
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +3,380
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +1,666
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +1,464
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-匯立 +1,292
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 1,572 left
    sold 28%· ~48 sessions to clear
  • 美林 428 left
    sold 38%· ~19 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-建國 72 left
    sold 62%· ~8 sessions to clear
  • 新光 64 left
    sold 59%· ~8 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-桃園 99 left
    sold 36%· ~40 sessions to clear
  • 福邦證券 84 left
    sold 33%· paused recently

Desks

  • 永豐金證券 -2,709
    unclassified
  • 元大證券 -2,438
    unclassified
  • 凱基 -2,198
    unclassified
  • 富邦證券 -2,024
    unclassified
Still selling 2,587 lots ~48 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +5,232 absorbed / -996 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 35.27%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

93 historical occurrences (since 2014-03-28)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 55.4%, Sample 83, Median +2.2%, Excess -0.17%, Beat mkt rate 44.6%；60-day: Win 62.2%, Sample 82, Median +5.66%, Excess +0.53%, Beat mkt rate 59.8%；120-day: Win 63.4%, Sample 82, Median +6.89%, Excess +0.2%, Beat mkt rate 52.4%

120 days after: historical avg +5.2%

20-day +0.71%
60-day +3.06%
120-day +5.2%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.4%
62.2%
63.4%
Sample
83
82
82
Median
+2.2%
+5.66%
+6.89%
Excess
-0.17%
+0.53%
+0.2%
Beat mkt rate
44.6%
59.8%
52.4%

Over 82 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.2%, beat the market by 0.2 pts; win rate 63.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1204+14.3% +17.4% 77.8% -9.6%
20-40 You are here490-6.5% -4% 39.6% -22%
40-60 195-23% -16.2% 1% -32.1%
60-80 55-37.5% -41.6% 0% -38.6%
80-100 23Insufficient data

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 17.22, at the 37.9th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+0.4%
Win rate 47.2% Excess -11%
786d
Now
-5.5%
Win rate 40.2% Excess -9.9%
271d
-21.2%
Win rate 24.6% Excess -24.9%
61d
60-day momentum down
+9.4%
Win rate 70.4% Excess -2.6%
882d
-11%
Win rate 48.8% Excess -10.4%
86d
Insufficient data
(0d)

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 271 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 5.5%, win rate 40.2%, lagged the market by 9.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.73%, win rate 55.6%, beating the market by -5.26 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

44 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.23%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by +4.47 pts on average.

What does 樺漢 do? Company profile

電腦及週邊設備業／工業電腦／工業物聯網與系統整合 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

6414 對應證券為樺漢科技股份有限公司，屬台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於1999年7月12日，2014年3月28日上市，總部位於新北市中和區建康路10號3至6樓。董事長為朱復銓，總經理為蔡能吉，發言人為莊宗憲。公開資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣14.58至14.59億元，已發行普通股約1.46億股；2025年年報列示截至2026年3月31日合併從業員工12,833人。公司2007年成為富士康科技集團子公司／重要成員，官網稱富士康為大股東並提供全球策略聯盟、嵌入式系統整合與DMS服務能力。主要股東方面，樺漢官網2026年3月31日停止過戶日資料列示：寶鑫國際投資33,178,779股、22.74%；花旗台灣銀行受託保管谷歌國際有限公司投資專戶4,880,000股、3.35%；元大台灣高股息低波動ETF專戶4,580,000股、3.14%；中華郵政4,411,000股、3.02%；翔發投資3,682,456股、2.52%；元大臺灣價值高息ETF專戶3,542,000股、2.43%；凱基人壽2,832,000股、1.94%；新制勞工退休基金2,131,000股、1.46%；鴻揚創投2,063,433股、1.41%；全球人壽1,642,000股、1.13%。

Business

樺漢定位為全球技術解決方案供應商，核心是工業物聯網、嵌入式技術、設計製造服務、IT與系統整合服務，應用涵蓋智慧城市、智慧製造、智慧零售、智慧金融、媒體娛樂、交通、醫療、能源、建築與園區等。2025年年報揭露主要營收結構：工業物聯網事業群營收684.90億元，占48.13%；智慧軟體與方案事業群222.32億元，占15.63%；智慧工廠與廠務事業群515.67億元，占36.24%；合計1,422.90億元。區域別約為歐洲36.92%、美洲26.34%、亞洲18.68%、內銷17.83%、其他0.23%。商業模式包括ODM／JDM、DMS設計製造服務、工業電腦板卡與控制器、POS／ATM／Kiosk等終端設備核心零組件、Edge AI與AIoT平台、雲地整合、數位雙生、工業軟體、資料處理與雲端服務、智慧工廠與廠務系統整合。公司官網另揭露與Google Cloud Platform、Google Glass、Google Meet、Google Workspace之策略合作，將雲、AI、5G、AIoT與製造服務整合為數位化即服務／ESaaS。年報指出主要交易對象多為POS、ATM、工業控制、網路通訊、遊戲機、博弈與其他工業電腦應用領域龍頭廠商，並已成為全球最大ATM品牌廠及前三大POS品牌廠A集團的重要板卡與控制器供應商；年報客戶名稱多以匿名方式揭露。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年實績顯示樺漢營收較2024年小幅下滑但獲利改善，年報與法說新聞指出2025年合併營收約1,422.9億元，歸屬母公司稅後淨利32.1億元，EPS 23.26元，產品組合由較高毛利的智慧軟體與方案、Edge AI、雲地整合與ESaaS拉動。2026年展望以在手訂單、NCR Voyix智慧零售專案、AIoT、網安、AI雲地整合、北美半導體建廠相關智慧工廠與廠務需求為主；2026年3月法說報導稱在手訂單超過1,900億元，NCRV訂單第二季放量、全年可望貢獻約120億元營收；2026年5月經濟日報報導董事長稱在手訂單已達2,150億元，預期第二季強勁反彈、上下半年營收比重約45:55、下半年優於上半年。2027至2028年可觀察成長動能包括：一、工業物聯網由傳統IPC延伸至Edge AI伺服器、機器視覺、光通訊模組、5G／6G、多軌衛星、資安通訊；二、智慧軟體與方案由雲端AI運算、數位雙生、工業軟體、API與訂閱式ESaaS提升毛利率；三、智慧工廠與廠務受半導體、AIDC、北美製造回流與廠區自動化投資支撐；四、富士康集團全球製造與供應鏈資源有助大型客戶拓展。主要風險包括：歐洲客戶訂單遞延、德國子公司業務重整費用、記憶體／處理器／儲存等零組件漲價與轉嫁時差、關稅與地緣政治造成生產基地調整、匯率波動、大型專案認列時點不均、工業電腦同業競爭、客戶集中但年報多以匿名揭露、AI與ESaaS高毛利業務滲透率不如預期。2027至2028屬研究推估，未見公司正式量化財測，應持續追蹤在手訂單轉換率、毛利率、現金流、三大事業群營收占比與NCRV等大型專案出貨節奏。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 鴻海精密工業股份有限公司 2317 富士康科技集團為樺漢2007年後之大股東／策略聯盟來源，提供全球製造、採購與DMS服務資源；屬台股上市公司。
  • Google LLC／Google Cloud 官網揭露樺漢圍繞GCP、Google Glass、Google Meet、Google Workspace整合與打包解決方案；Google／Alphabet為美國上市集團，非台股掛牌，stock_id填null。
  • NVIDIA Corporation Edge AI與工業電腦平台生態的重要上游晶片與加速運算供應商；產業報導將樺漢／Kontron列入AI IPC相關生態，但未確認為樺漢直接重大供應商；美國上市，非台股。
  • Intel Corporation 工業電腦CPU、邊緣運算與嵌入式平台重要供應商；產業報導提及樺漢旗下Kontron屬Intel陣營之一，但未確認為樺漢直接重大供應商；美國上市，非台股。
  • 電源供應器、圖形處理器、BIOS、液晶顯示器、積體電路供應商 2025年年報僅揭露主要原料類別且供應狀況良好，並稱最近二年度無占進貨總額10%以上供應商；未公開具名供應商，故stock_id填null。
Downstream
  • NCR Voyix Corporation 北美智慧零售客戶／NCRV專案；2026年法說報導稱第二季開始放量出貨，全年可望帶來約120億元營收貢獻；美國上市，非台股。
  • 甲客戶 2025年年報匿名揭露之主要銷貨客戶；2024年銷貨16,333,155仟元、占11.16%，2025年8,347,817仟元、占5.87%；名稱未公開。
  • 全球最大ATM品牌廠及前三大POS品牌廠A集團 年報描述樺漢為其重要板卡及控制器供應商；公司未公開具名，非可確認台股掛牌公司。
  • 全球系統整合商與企業客戶 官網與年報描述樺漢透過工業物聯網、DMS／SI與雲服務服務全球高成長市場，涵蓋智慧城市、製造、零售、金融、媒體娛樂等；未列具名客戶。
  • 半導體與AIDC智慧工廠／廠務客戶 智慧工廠與廠務事業群主要提供半導體、AIDC產業所需系統整合與智慧化工廠設備；未公開具名客戶。

Competitors

Sources（11）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.