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6508
steady quality, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 惠光 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 48th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.3%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 90th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.2% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +0% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 富邦-竹科 has accumulated 1,395 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 國泰-敦南 peaked at 95 lots, has sold 31%, 66 left, ~330 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.59pp, mid holders +0, retail -1.78pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -46 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 富邦-竹科 +1,395
- 宏遠-高雄 +258
- 富邦-永康 +135
- 華南永昌-岡山 +75
- 第一金-中山 +61
- 永豐金-桃園 +47
Distributing
- 國泰-敦南 66 left
- 元富-成功 9 left
- 台新證券 34 left
- 凱基-台北 5 left
- 玉山-桃園 9 left
- 國泰-板橋 5 left
Desks
- 宏遠-館前 -160
- 土銀-玉里 -87
- 元大-新盛 -74
- 群益金鼎 -65
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 1046 | +5.2% | +3.9% | 61.2% | -8.8% |
| 20-40 | 562 | +7.2% | +9.1% | 69.6% | -11.5% |
| 40-60 | 557 | +15.9% | +12.9% | 91.4% | +3.6% |
| 60-80 | 381 | +9% | +8.3% | 78.5% | -2.6% |
| 80-100 You are here | 479 | -5.6% | -11.4% | 17.7% | -33.5% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 107.95, at the 99.7th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 539 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 1.6%, win rate 34%, lagged the market by 18%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
28 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.99%, win rate 35.7%, beating the market by -4.45 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
82 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.22%, win rate 52.8%, beating the market by +3.59 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
40 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.22%, win rate 48.7%, beating the market by -5.81 pts on average.
What does 惠光 do? Company profile
Overview
6508 對應惠光股份有限公司，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、特別股或權證。公司前身為惠光化學，官方資料列示成立日為 1965-12-27，另部分市場資料列示 1965-12-17；本研究以公司官網投資人專區為主並在 notes 標示日期差異。上櫃日期為 2004-03-22，總部及主要地址在台南市麻豆區麻佳路一段259號，實收資本額 NT$865,388,640，董事長兼總經理為陳冠華，發言人為朱秋碧，股務代理為永豐金證券股務代理部。115年3月31日止從業員工合計258人。115年4月27日前十大或持股5%以上股東為惠光投資15,343,113股、17.73%；陳榮東7,986,746股、9.23%；劉德鋆4,090,000股、4.73%；東強投資3,837,210股、4.43%；惠通投資3,423,178股、3.96%；湯秋英3,253,507股、3.76%；東尼投資3,100,479股、3.58%；陳冠華2,852,000股、3.30%；陳毓宏2,059,264股、2.38%；惠光貿易1,856,753股、2.15%。
Business
惠光主要從事植物保護劑、肥料、環衛用藥、特用化學品、生物製劑、地工合成材料、環境保護產品之研發、生產與銷售。114年度營業比重為農業科學事業群新台幣1,086,619千元、76.36%，環境科技事業群新台幣336,479千元、23.64%，合計新台幣1,423,098千元。農業科學產品包含植物保護劑、植物生長補助劑、生物製劑、環境衛生用藥、特用化學品；植物保護劑依用途可分殺蟲劑、除草劑、殺菌劑、殺蟎劑及其他，商業模式包含採購或合成農藥原體、加工製劑、登記許可、自有品牌與通路銷售。公司國內長期經營惠光農友服務站，年報稱台灣各地逾350家銷售據點；中國市場透過當地通路及自有品牌，外銷以東南亞、南美等農業市場為主，並有美國棉花田用藥專案於2025年3月起陸續出貨。環境科技事業群主要為 HUITEX 品牌地工合成材料，產品包括地工膜、混凝土保護膜、地工格穴、地工織物；地工膜主要以高密度或線性低密度聚乙烯，透過大型押出吹膜成形生產，應用於垃圾掩埋場、礦場、廢水處理、大蓄水池、水庫、灌溉渠道、地基工程、養殖場、屋頂防漏、邊坡防護、工業污水防治、農業及民生儲水池、雨水集水系統等。地工材料銷售地區以中國大陸、越南、印尼、南非等地為主，部分銷售至歐美。年報揭露最近二年度任一年度中無占銷貨總額10%以上客戶。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年實際營運情況顯示，農業科學事業群在台灣及中國市場因原料價格穩定而大致平穩，南美仍有價格競爭壓力但部分需求維持動能，美國棉花田用藥專案自2025年3月起出貨並挹注營收及獲利；環境科技事業群則受中國經濟低迷、工程預算縮編、專案減少、中國製造商低價競爭、東南亞養殖景氣下滑與終端價格競爭影響，營收下滑且市場仍具挑戰。2026至2028年展望以公司年報策略與產業趨勢推估：成長動能包括全球糧食需求、可耕地有限、高效低毒與安全農藥替代、高風險農藥逐步受限、學名藥登記項目增加、海外農藥登記與特殊市場合作、東南亞與南美等農業市場、自有品牌及國際大廠授權產品導入。環境科技方面，水資源、垃圾掩埋、礦業、廢水處理、養殖與氣候變遷相關防滲需求仍是中長期支撐；公司策略包括耐極端氣候及惡劣環境材料配方、複合材料技術、工程周邊產品、實驗室認證、深耕亞太、非洲、澳洲並拓展蒙古、中國西北及中亞礦業項目。潛在風險包括農藥法規與登記成本升高、環保與食安壓力、國內耕地面積減少、農藥及地工膜削價競爭、農藥原體及聚乙烯樹脂仰賴進口、匯率與航運波動、地工膜大型工程招標價格導向、中國及其他地區低成本地工膜產能外溢。年報並揭露未來一年無重大投資計畫、目前無擴充廠房計畫；因此2026至2028的成長較可能來自產品登記、產品組合、海外市場與技術差異化，而非已公告的大型擴產。
Supply Chain
- 日本、印度、中國、保加利亞農藥原體供應商 年報列示農藥原體主要來源為日本、印度、中國、保加利亞，供應情形良好；未揭露具名供應商，故不填股票代號。
- 卡達、新加坡聚乙烯樹脂供應商 地工合成材料主要原料聚乙烯樹脂來源為卡達、新加坡；年報說明地工材料專用聚乙烯目前僅少數大廠生產，公司與供應商長期往來，未揭露具名供應商。
- 台灣色母供應商 年報列示色母主要來源為台灣，供應情形良好；未揭露具名供應商。
- 石化原料業、塑膠顏料業、添加劑業 地工合成材料上游產業關聯包含石化原料、塑膠顏料、添加劑；此為產業類別而非具名公司。
- 惠光農友服務站及農業經銷零售通路 植物保護劑下游包含經銷商、零售商與農民；年報稱台灣各地已逾350家銷售據點。
- 中國大陸及海外農藥代理商、經銷商 農業科學事業群透過中國市場通路與海外市場布局銷售自有品牌與登記產品；具名客戶未揭露，且最近二年度無占銷貨總額10%以上客戶。
- 農民及農業生產者 植物保護劑終端用於農林作物病蟲草害防治及生長調節；非上市櫃公司。
- 環境工程業、營造業、土木包工業、施工商與大型經銷商 地工合成材料下游用於環境工程、營造、土木工程、礦業、養殖、水資源及廢水處理等；年報提到與區域大型經銷商及施工商合作，但未揭露具名客戶。
Competitors
- 興農股份有限公司 1712 年報明確指出目前台灣植物保護產業僅興農為惠光主要競爭對手；興農為台股上市公司。
- Solmax 加拿大地工材料業者；年報提及惠光聚乙烯地工膜在亞洲地區總產能僅次於 Solmax，且 Solmax 於2017年底收購整併 GSE。非台股掛牌。
- 中國大陸、中東及亞太地區地工膜生產廠商 年報指出近年中國大陸、中東甚至亞太地區地工膜產線快速增長，以低成本與非國際規格產品影響區域銷售平衡；未揭露具名公司。
Sources（7）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.