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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 6512 啟發電. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=6512
6512
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 啟發電 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 8th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -2.0%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 93th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 93th percentile.
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -6% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 國泰-敦南 has accumulated 142 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 群益金鼎-崇德 peaked at 7 lots, has sold 86%, 1 left, ~3 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.10pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.05pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 國泰-敦南 +142
- 元大-汐止 +72
- 富邦-台北 +45
- 國泰-板橋 +39
- 群益金鼎-新竹 +35
- 玉山-左營 +28
Distributing
- 群益金鼎-崇德 1 left
- 元大-善化 1 left
- 元富-大裕 1 left
- 統一 3 left
- 台新-新營 1 left
Desks
- 兆豐-嘉義 -123
- 元大-台中中港 -40
- 凱基-中壢 -35
- 美好-中壢 -34
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 20-40 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 40-60 | 40 | +31.4% | +31.4% | 100% | -38.7% |
| 60-80 | 27 | Insufficient data | |||
| 80-100 You are here | 73 | +27.6% | +29% | 94.5% | -40.2% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 89.58, at the 93.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
(0d)
(15d)
(0d)
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 117 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 4.3%, win rate 24.8%, lagged the market by 20%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
6 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.2%, win rate 33.3%, beating the market by +1.04 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
32 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.68%, win rate 34.5%, beating the market by -3.83 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.