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6585

鼎基 Other As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 鼎基 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 47Quality 79Growth 86Momentum 78Chips 48

Is 鼎基 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~84% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.5%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 59th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 89th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.3% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 58.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.17
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution, concentration falling — bearish

  • Distribution, concentration falling — bearish
  • 統一 holds 532 lots
  • sellers have 135 lots left, ~17 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +45% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 統一 has accumulated 532 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大-北投 peaked at 187 lots, has sold 87%, 24 left, ~2 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.27pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.34pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -214 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
統一凱基-信義富邦-木柵台新-台北富邦-台北元大-中和
Distributing
元大-北投凱基-台北臺銀-民權美商高盛國票-安和國泰證券
Desks
own scale
華南永昌台灣摩根士丹利第一金-高雄國票-敦北法人
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 統一 +532
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-信義 +282
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-木柵 +120
    sold 2%
  • 台新-台北 +105
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-台北 +104
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-中和 +81
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 元大-北投 24 left
    sold 87%· ~2 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 85 left
    sold 48%· paused recently
  • 臺銀-民權 27 left
    sold 77%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 47 left
    sold 56%· ~17 sessions to clear
  • 國票-安和 20 left
    sold 77%· ~11 sessions to clear
  • 國泰證券 37 left
    sold 48%· paused recently

Desks

  • 華南永昌 -193
    unclassified
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -140
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 第一金-高雄 -105
    unclassified
  • 國票-敦北法人 -103
    unclassified
Still selling 135 lots ~17 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,481 absorbed / -318 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -177 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

8 historical occurrences (since 2023-07-03)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 7, Median -8.72%, Excess -6.78%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；60-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 7, Median +1.96%, Excess -0.78%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；120-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 7, Median +0.65%, Excess +0.22%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%

120 days after: historical avg +15.39%

20-day -4.68%
60-day +9.15%
120-day +15.39%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.9%
71.4%
57.1%
Sample
7
7
7
Median
-8.72%
+1.96%
+0.65%
Excess
-6.78%
-0.78%
+0.22%
Beat mkt rate
42.9%
42.9%
42.9%

Over 7 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 15.39%, beat the market by 0.22 pts; win rate 57.1%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 58.06%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

22 historical occurrences (since 2022-05-20)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 78.6%, Sample 14, Median +13.11%, Excess +9.51%, Beat mkt rate 71.4%；60-day: Win 53.8%, Sample 13, Median +9.01%, Excess +5.14%, Beat mkt rate 46.2%；120-day: Win 53.8%, Sample 13, Median +3.05%, Excess +1.46%, Beat mkt rate 30.8%

120 days after: historical avg +13.11%

20-day +10.61%
60-day +10.45%
120-day +13.11%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
78.6%
53.8%
53.8%
Sample
14
13
13
Median
+13.11%
+9.01%
+3.05%
Excess
+9.51%
+5.14%
+1.46%
Beat mkt rate
71.4%
46.2%
30.8%

Over 13 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 13.11%, beat the market by 1.46 pts; win rate 53.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1Insufficient data
20-40 0Insufficient data
40-60 0Insufficient data
60-80 0Insufficient data
80-100 You are here0Insufficient data

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 27.86, at the 89.2th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(6d)
Insufficient data
(5d)
Now
Insufficient data
(0d)
60-day momentum down
-7.8%
Win rate 11.5% Excess -46.8%
87d
Insufficient data
(17d)
Insufficient data
(0d)

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

14 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.91%, win rate 61.5%, beating the market by +2.02 pts on average.

What does 鼎基 do? Company profile

其他業／高機能熱塑性聚氨酯（TPU）材料與塑膠製品 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

6585 對應證券為鼎基，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、特別股或權證。公司成立於 1981/03/06，前身為鼎基化學工業股份有限公司，2015 年更名為鼎基先進材料股份有限公司；總部位於高雄市小港區北林路 8-1 號，主要生產據點位於高雄與屏東，並有中國、歐洲等海外子公司或據點。上市日期為 2022/05/20，興櫃日期為 2016/09/08，公開發行日期為 2016/06/29。董事長為林勳臺，總經理及發言人為林庚賢。依公開股市資料，資本額約新台幣 7.21 億元，已發行普通股約 72,133,587 股；104 人力銀行揭露員工數約 600 人。主要股東與內部人方面，公開資料顯示鼎爾投資股份有限公司、鼎玉投資股份有限公司與董事長林勳臺為主要持股者；2026 年 3 月董監持股資料中，鼎爾投資約持股 37.02%，鼎玉投資約 26.35%，林勳臺約 7.95%。

Business

鼎基為高機能 TPU 材料與製品廠，產品線涵蓋 TPU 高科技膜／高機能薄膜、纖維與先進複合材料、Perfloa 氣動管與飲水管、Aldura 傳動輸送帶、DING ZING DZ 密封件等。主要營收來自 TPU 薄膜，2024 年產品營收比重約為 TPU 薄膜 92%、TPU 密封件 4%、TPU 管帶 3%；2025 年上半年法說資料整理則顯示高機能薄膜約 87.55%、密封件約 5.66%、管帶約 2.84%。TPU 薄膜使用 TPU 粒料經押出、吹膜或淋膜等製程製成，可再貼合織布或其他材料，應用於汽車烤漆保護膜、安全氣囊、醫療用品、3C／電子、運動用品、鞋材、戶外用品、衣料、箱包、球類、航空與工業用途。密封件主要應用於油壓系統、挖土機與重機等設備；管帶應用於氣動系統、飲水管、食品與鋼鐵輸送。商業模式以客製化材料開發、協同研發與一條龍生產為核心，從 TPU 造粒、薄膜／管帶／密封件加工到客戶應用共同開發，提高產品差異化與切入高毛利應用。2024 年銷售地區約為亞洲 49%、美洲 32%、台灣 11%、歐洲 7%。主要客戶或終端品牌包括 Adidas、NIKE、Volkswagen、Mercedes-Benz、Audi、迪卡儂等；公開資訊另提及汽車、醫療與電子為近年三大核心成長領域。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年公司受到美國關稅政策不確定性、新台幣快速升值與客戶延後採購衝擊，第二季營運明顯下滑；2025 上半年合併營收約 14.56 億元、年減 12.14%，EPS 約 2.69 元，其中第二季營收約 6.02 億元、季減 29.57%、年減 30.41%。2025 全年合併營收約 28.50 億元、年減約 13.2%，但第四季營收季增，顯示需求回溫。2026 年展望以汽車、醫療、電子三大高附加價值業務為主軸；公司表示營運谷底已過，將紮根汽車烤漆保護膜（PPF）、醫療材料與手機用膜等高毛利領域。2026 年 4 月合併營收 3.25 億元創歷史單月新高，月增 24.7%、年增 27.5%，前 4 月累計營收 10.52 億元，年減幅收斂；5 月營收 2.80 億元，年增 58.07%，前 5 月累計營收 13.32 億元，年增 3.56%。成長動能包括：汽車新規格產品與 PPF 拉貨回溫、醫療客戶銷售量提升、電子客戶備貨及新機相關材料需求、TPU 可回收與替代 PVC 的環保趨勢、全球品牌對永續材料與高機能薄膜的需求。2027 至 2028 年展望屬推估：若汽車保護膜、醫療耗材／手術保護套、電子薄膜與高附加價值 TPU 薄膜持續通過客戶驗證並放量，產品組合可望優化並支撐毛利率；但缺乏公司正式 2027 至 2028 財測，仍需以訂單能見度、月營收與毛利率變化驗證。主要風險包括匯率升值、關稅與地緣政治、石化原料 MDI／TDI／多元醇與 TPU 粒子價格波動、汽車與醫療客戶拉貨節奏、終端品牌庫存循環、同業削價競爭、單一高機能薄膜產品線占比過高，以及新產品驗證與放量不如預期。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • BASF SE（巴斯夫） 德國上市化工大廠，為全球 TPU、MDI、聚氨酯與高分子材料供應商；可視為鼎基所在 TPU 產業鏈上游材料來源之一，但公開資料未確認其為鼎基直接供應商。
  • Covestro AG（科思創） 德國上市材料商，供應 TPU、聚氨酯與異氰酸酯等材料；屬 TPU 薄膜產業上游，公開資料未確認為鼎基直接供應商。
  • Huntsman Corporation 美國上市化工公司，供應聚氨酯、MDI 與相關化學品；屬 TPU 產業上游原料供應鏈，公開資料未確認為鼎基直接供應商。
  • 萬華化學集團股份有限公司 中國 A 股上市化工公司，供應 MDI、TDI、聚氨酯與 TPU 相關材料；屬 TPU 產業上游，非台股掛牌，公開資料未確認為鼎基直接供應商。
  • TPU 粒子、MDI、TDI、大分子多元醇與擴鏈劑供應商 MoneyDJ 資料指出 TPU 粒子為鼎基主要原料，TPU 粒子由 MDI、TDI、大分子多元醇與擴鏈劑聚合而成；公司未完整揭露具體供應商名稱。
Downstream
  • Adidas 歐洲上市運動品牌，公開資料列為鼎基主要客戶之一；終端應用包含足球、鞋材與運動用品等。
  • NIKE 美國上市運動品牌，公開資料列為鼎基主要客戶之一；終端應用包含鞋材與運動用品等。
  • Volkswagen（VW） 德國上市汽車集團，公開資料列為鼎基主要客戶之一；終端應用包含汽車安全氣囊或車用材料。
  • Mercedes-Benz 德國上市汽車品牌／集團，公開資料列為鼎基主要客戶之一；終端應用包含汽車安全氣囊或車用材料。
  • Audi 德國汽車品牌，隸屬 Volkswagen Group，公開資料列為鼎基主要客戶之一；終端應用包含汽車安全氣囊或車用材料。
  • Decathlon（迪卡儂） 法國未上市運動零售與品牌商，公開資料列為鼎基主要客戶之一；終端應用包含戶外、運動與休閒用品。
  • 汽車、醫療、電子、戶外、紡織箱包等應用客戶 2025 年上半年法說資料整理顯示應用占比以汽車約 39.45%、醫療約 28.57% 為主，另有戶外、紡織箱包、電子等；部分客戶未公開名稱。

Competitors

  • 東莞雄林新材料科技股份有限公司 中國 TPU 薄膜與相關材料廠，MoneyDJ 列為鼎基主要競爭同業之一；非台股掛牌。
  • 浙江佳陽塑膠新材料有限公司 中國 TPU 薄膜／塑膠新材料廠，MoneyDJ 列為鼎基主要競爭同業之一；非台股掛牌。
  • 中山博銳斯塑膠新材料有限公司 中國 TPU 薄膜與塑膠新材料廠，MoneyDJ 列為鼎基主要競爭同業之一；非台股掛牌。
  • 三芳化學工業股份有限公司 1307 台股上市 PU 合成皮革與材料廠；旗下立基先進材料與 BASF 合作推出回收環保 TPU 薄膜，屬鞋材、薄膜與永續 TPU 材料應用上的廣義競爭者。
  • BASF SE（巴斯夫） 全球 TPU 與聚氨酯材料大廠，更多屬上游材料商，但在 TPU 高性能材料與永續材料方案上亦可能與下游薄膜解決方案形成競合；德國上市，非台股。
  • Covestro AG（科思創） 全球聚氨酯與 TPU 材料供應商，主要為上游材料商，但在高性能 TPU 應用開發上與鼎基產業位置有競合關係；德國上市，非台股。
Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.