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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 8215 明基材. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=8215
8215
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 明基材 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 19th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -2.6%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 99th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.4% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +49% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 永豐金證券 has accumulated 831 lots since the start (sold 3%), still adding.
- Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 2,803 lots, has sold 70%, 829 left, ~7 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.58pp, mid holders +6, retail -1.45pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,374 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 永豐金證券 +831
- 台新證券 +707
- 元大-北屯 +497
- 華南永昌-內壢 +371
- 元大-大同 +356
- 凱基-市政 +296
Distributing
- 凱基-台北 829 left
- 國票證券 887 left
- 台新 425 left
- 新加坡商瑞銀 342 left
- 群益金鼎 85 left
- 福勝 126 left
Desks
- 國泰-板橋 -928
- 中國信託-嘉義 -797
- 台灣摩根士丹利 -621
- 美林 -405
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 163 | +21.2% | +18.9% | 98.2% | -1.8% |
| 20-40 | 180 | +6% | +4.7% | 63.9% | -11.1% |
| 40-60 | 424 | +6.5% | -5.8% | 39.2% | -7% |
| 60-80 | 523 | +22.7% | +16.6% | 67.5% | +3.3% |
| 80-100 You are here | 668 | +3.8% | -14.4% | 44% | -19.9% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 1057.5, at the 99.9th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 519 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 8%, win rate 48.7%, lagged the market by 6%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.13%, win rate 38.1%, beating the market by -2.02 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
34 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.01%, win rate 57.1%, beating the market by +3.19 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
66 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.57%, win rate 52.3%, beating the market by +2.6 pts on average.
What does 明基材 do? Company profile
Overview
8215 對應明基材料股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF/ETN/權證。公司成立於 1998/07/16，上市日期 2010/11/12，總部位於桃園市龜山區建國東路 29 號。董事長為陳建志，總經理為劉家瑞，發言人/財務長為王勝興。Yahoo 股市與鉅亨網揭露股本約新台幣 3,206,745,140 元、已發行普通股 320,674,514 股，所屬集團為明基友達集團，主要營業項目為電腦及週邊設備製造、其他化學材料製造、醫療產品製造。2025 年年報揭露主要股東截至 2026/03/29 包括明基電通 80,847,763 股約 25.21%、佳世達科技 43,659,294 股約 13.61%、達利投資 15,182,178 股約 4.74%、台新銀行受託明基材員工持股信託專戶 4,657,912 股約 1.45%、李焜耀 4,580,396 股約 1.43%、社團法人東木協會 3,327,410 股約 1.04%。年報表列 2025 年底員工合計約 1,965 人，2026/03/29 約 1,976 人；此數字係依 PDF 表格欄位推讀。
Business
公司定位為材料科學公司，以高分子、精密塗佈、射出與押出、光學、精密雕刻、捲對捲製程為核心，產品橫跨機能膜、先進電池材料、生醫與織物。2025 年合併營收 178.45985 億元，年減 4%；內銷 53.22535 億元、占 29.8%，外銷 125.23450 億元、占 70.2%，其中亞洲外銷占 63.7%。主要業務之一為顯示材料/機能膜，核心產品為偏光片及機能膜，應用於 LCD、OLED、液晶電視、桌上型顯示器、平板、筆電、手機、穿戴、工控與專業顯示器；公司在偏光片製程涵蓋 PVA 染色、TAC 蝕刻/貼合、保護膜貼合、裁切、磨邊、熟成與包裝等。另一主軸為醫療/護理產品，包含隱形眼鏡、皮膚護理、傷口照護、醫療包材、專業衛材與低溫膜材等；法說與媒體資料顯示醫療事業 2024 至 2025 年占比約三成，2025 年機能膜與醫療產品營收占比約 67% 與 33% 為法人/媒體估計，非年報正式產品別表。年報揭露 2025 年主要銷貨客戶甲占銷貨 27%，且為關係人，但未揭露名稱；主要供應商甲、乙分別占進貨約 20%、10%，名稱亦匿名。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 年公司營運由盈轉虧，全年營收 178.46 億元、毛利率約 14%、歸屬母公司淨損 3.64 億元、EPS -1.14 元，主因顯示器材料需求走弱、新台幣兌美元升值與毛利壓力；醫療與高附加價值產品仍維持成長但不足以完全抵銷顯示材料衰退。2026Q1 合併營收 45.46 億元，受顯示器材料壓力影響仍虧損，惟虧損較 2025Q4 收斂。2025 至 2028 展望可分為四條主線：第一，顯示器材料由一般偏光片走向高值化，重點在車用顯示、OLED 手機、大尺寸電視、高耐候、薄化、低碳材料與高抗眩低反射產品；車用顯示器因認證與供應鏈黏著度較高，預期相對穩定，但 IT、手機與 TV 終端需求仍受景氣、記憶體成本與面板循環影響。第二，醫療事業是中期主要成長引擎，公司目標 2026 年醫療業務恢復雙位數成長，產品線包括消費性醫療（隱形眼鏡、皮膚護理）與專業醫療（傷口敷料、醫療包材、手術應用材料），市場聚焦台灣、中國、東南亞並逐步拓展歐美；醫療產品認證期長、進入門檻高，一旦導入較不易被替換，但也代表新產品放量節奏較慢。第三，新興材料布局包括半導體製程材料、CMP 製程後清洗刷輪、Micro LED 移轉膠材與防漏光膜材、CPO 光通訊用 FAC 快軸準直透鏡及光學膠材，多數仍屬開發、小量出貨或客戶共同驗證階段，2027 至 2028 是否形成實質營收貢獻仍待觀察。第四，風險包括中國偏光片新增產能與價格競爭、PVA/PET/補償膜等上游寡占材料供應與成本波動、日圓/美元/新台幣匯率、醫療保險價格壓力、高階醫材取證與客戶驗證週期、主要客戶集中、以及總體景氣與關稅不確定性。
Supply Chain
- 日本及台灣光學膜、化學品與醫療級原材料供應商 年報揭露機能膜主要原料包括 PVA 膜、TAC 膜、PET 膜、PMMA 膜、補償膜、保護膜、離型膜、化學品等，主要供應商來自日本及台灣；PVA 膜、PET 膜、補償膜等屬寡占市場，未揭露具體公司名稱。
- 供應商甲（年報匿名） 2025 年主要供應商，占進貨淨額約 20%，年報未揭露名稱與是否掛牌。
- 供應商乙（年報匿名） 2025 年主要供應商，占進貨淨額約 10%，年報未揭露名稱與是否掛牌。
- 滅菌廠、包材廠、醫療產品檢驗及驗證機構 醫療產品上游與中游支援體系，包含滅菌、包材、檢驗與認證服務；年報僅揭露產業類型，未揭露公司名稱。
- 主要銷貨客戶甲（年報匿名） 2025 年占銷貨淨額 27%，且為關係人；年報未揭露名稱，不能確認其實際公司與股票代號。
- 液晶顯示面板及模組廠 顯示材料主要下游，使用偏光片與機能膜於 LCD/OLED 面板及模組；年報以產業類型揭露，未列具體客戶。
- 友達光電 2409 台灣上市面板廠、明基友達集團關係企業，屬顯示材料潛在/關聯下游；是否為年報主要銷貨客戶甲未由年報確認。
- 醫療品牌商、醫院、電商平台與終端消費者 醫療/護理產品下游，包含專業醫療品牌、各規模醫院、通路與終端消費者；年報未揭露個別公司。
Competitors
Sources（14）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.