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8342

益張 Other As of 2026-07-29 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 益張 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
估值 59品質 75成長 38動能 60籌碼 3

Is 益張 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • 獲利能力中上。營業利益率位居全市場第 69 百分位。最新一季 ROE 約 4.4%。

  • 估值中性。本益比位居全市場第 33 百分位。以自身歷史看，目前本益比約在第 80 百分位。

  • 外資近期偏賣。外資近 20 日買賣超約佔成交量 -14.7%（賣超）。

Chip flow

Bullish +0.79
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 兆豐-員林 holds 163 lots
  • sellers have 1 lots left, ~10 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +7% · branches to 2026-06-15· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 兆豐-員林 has accumulated 163 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大-南京 peaked at 3 lots, has sold 33%, 2 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.38pp, mid holders +0, retail -1.39pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -12 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
兆豐-員林台新-台中華南永昌-鳳山元大-羅東永豐金-台南(牛牛牛)亞-網路
Distributing
元大-南京富邦-青埔元大-華山兆豐-松德
Desks
own scale
富邦-南員林富邦-南屯玉山-大里統一-台中
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 兆豐-員林 +163
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新-台中 +54
    sold 4%
  • 華南永昌-鳳山 +3
    sold 0%
  • 元大-羅東 +2
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-台南 +2
    sold 0%
  • (牛牛牛)亞-網路 +1
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 元大-南京 2 left
    sold 33%· paused recently
  • 富邦-青埔 2 left
    sold 33%· paused recently
  • 元大-華山 1 left
    sold 50%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 兆豐-松德 1 left
    sold 50%· paused recently

Desks

  • 富邦-南員林 -67
    unclassified
  • 富邦-南屯 -24
    unclassified
  • 玉山-大里 -12
    unclassified
  • 統一-台中 -11
    unclassified
Still selling 1 lots ~10 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +26 absorbed / -1 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

目前正在發生的訊號

以下訊號在最近一筆資料中成立，附這檔股票自身歷史上每次出現後的前瞻報酬統計

股價創 252 日新高（突破日）

Active

還原股價首次站上過去 252 個交易日最高；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

23 historical occurrences (since 2019-01-29)
Average forward return after 股價創 252 日新高（突破日）。20-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 22, Median +1.63%, Excess -1.39%, Beat mkt rate 45.5%；60-day: Win 77.3%, Sample 22, Median +3.65%, Excess -0.52%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%；120-day: Win 80%, Sample 20, Median +12.87%, Excess +2.48%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +11.42%

20-day +1.8%
60-day +4.67%
120-day +11.42%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
63.6%
77.3%
80%
Sample
22
22
20
Median
+1.63%
+3.65%
+12.87%
Excess
-1.39%
-0.52%
+2.48%
Beat mkt rate
45.5%
54.5%
50%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 11.42%, beat the market by 2.48 pts; win rate 80%.

估值位階與後續報酬

把這檔股票每天的本益比，換算成「截至當天為止的自身歷史百分位」，再看不同估值位階之後 240 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 423+16.4% +14.1% 97.2% +10.5%
20-40 253+21% +17.3% 100% -29%
40-60 209+20.8% +13.7% 90.9% +2.3%
60-80 You are here162+15.3% +4.1% 84% -7.3%
80-100 71+35.5% +35.2% 100% +6.5%

百分位以當天為止的自身歷史滾動計算（expanding），不含未來資訊；前瞻報酬為還原股價 240 交易日。樣本日重疊，僅供分布參考。

目前本益比約 15.21，落在自身歷史第 80.0 百分位，屬於 60-80 區間。

估值 × 動能的歷史對照

把自身歷史的每一天，依估值位階（本益比自身歷史三分位）與 60 日動能方向分成六格，看各情境之後 120 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

Valuation
Momentum
便宜
中等
昂貴
向上
+6%
Win rate 84.9% Excess +1.7%
345d
+9%
Win rate 77.9% Excess -3.7%
353d
Now
+20.1%
Win rate 88.7% Excess +0.7%
151d
向下
+5.3%
Win rate 90.8% Excess -6.7%
173d
+3.2%
Win rate 59.8% Excess -11.2%
87d
Insufficient data
(3d)

Currently in “昂貴（自身歷史後 1/3） × 60 日動能向上”: across 151 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 20.1%, win rate 88.7%, beat the market by 0.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

這個訊號在全市場是否站得住腳

「月營收年增率 ≥ 20%」過去 243 個月，每月平均約 404 檔個股符合條件；這些個股之後 60 個交易日的還原股價報酬，等權平均為 6.99%，平均贏過大盤 2.32 個百分點，在 64.2% 的月份中跑贏發行量加權股價報酬指數。

每月對全市場符合訊號的股票取等權平均前瞻 60 日還原報酬，再對月份平均；超額相對發行量加權股價報酬指數

目前未成立的訊號（歷史統計供參）

這些訊號現在沒有發生，列出歷史樣本以供對照

月營收年增率 ≥ 20%（公告截止日起算）

Pending

單月營收年增率達 20% 以上；事件日為公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到未公告資訊

73 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.16%, win rate 75.8%, beating the market by -0.85 pts on average.

外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日

Pending

外資（不含自營商）買賣超連續 5 日為正，事件日為第 5 日；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

方法與限制

  • 所有報酬以還原股價（etl:adj_close）計算，已還原除權息與股票分割。
  • 超額報酬以發行量加權股價報酬指數（含息）為基準。
  • 估值位階與分位統計以「截至當天為止的自身歷史」滾動計算，不使用未來資訊。
  • 營收訊號的事件日對齊到公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到尚未公開的資訊。
  • 事件樣本之間日期可能重疊，統計僅描述歷史分布，樣本數較少時參考價值有限。

本頁內容為歷史資料統計與教育用途，不構成投資建議。投資一定有風險，過去績效不代表未來表現，交易前請自行評估並承擔風險。