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8415

大國鋼 Iron & Steel As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 大國鋼 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 79Quality 79Growth 65Momentum 49Chips 91

Is 大國鋼 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~85% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.5%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 9th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 19th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 10.9% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 20.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.34
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 元富-成功 holds 3,014 lots
  • sellers have 371 lots left, ~26 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +3% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元富-成功 has accumulated 3,014 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 563 lots, has sold 26%, 414 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.03pp, mid holders +7, retail -0.23pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -169 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元富-成功台新-成功台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛美林元富-同大
Distributing
摩根大通凱基-台北台新-台中統一-桃園永豐金-南投華南永昌-台南
Desks
own scale
美好兆豐-岡山港商麥格理兆豐-台南
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元富-成功 +3,014
    sold 0%
  • 台新-成功 +2,717
    sold 1%
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +1,757
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +894
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 美林 +722
    sold 14%
  • 元富-同大 +716
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 摩根大通 414 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 凱基-台北 263 left
    sold 49%· ~15 sessions to clear
  • 台新-台中 39 left
    sold 79%· paused recently
  • 統一-桃園 29 left
    sold 78%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-南投 9 left
    sold 89%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌-台南 23 left
    sold 68%· paused recently

Desks

  • 美好 -8,607
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-岡山 -908
    unclassified
  • 港商麥格理 -519
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 兆豐-台南 -346
    unclassified
Still selling 371 lots ~26 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,617 absorbed / -311 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -89 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 20.69%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

51 historical occurrences (since 2016-09-07)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 59%, Sample 39, Median +0.6%, Excess +0.26%, Beat mkt rate 53.8%；60-day: Win 64.1%, Sample 39, Median +1.82%, Excess +2.24%, Beat mkt rate 61.5%；120-day: Win 59%, Sample 39, Median +3.32%, Excess +5.63%, Beat mkt rate 51.3%

120 days after: historical avg +6.25%

20-day +1.01%
60-day +3.48%
120-day +6.25%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
59%
64.1%
59%
Sample
39
39
39
Median
+0.6%
+1.82%
+3.32%
Excess
+0.26%
+2.24%
+5.63%
Beat mkt rate
53.8%
61.5%
51.3%

Over 39 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.25%, beat the market by 5.63 pts; win rate 59%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here506+1.5% +2.8% 67.2% -14.5%
20-40 450+5.4% +4.8% 86.4% -25.9%
40-60 122-3.9% -7.6% 20.5% -22.9%
60-80 59+28.5% +30.9% 89.8% -13.2%
80-100 214+44% +47.7% 98.6% +11.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 10.68, at the 19.1th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
-0.1%
Win rate 51.3% Excess -8.9%
439d
+1%
Win rate 48.7% Excess -16.2%
197d
+16.3%
Win rate 78.9% Excess -3%
147d
60-day momentum down
+4%
Win rate 81% Excess -3.8%
353d
-2%
Win rate 46.1% Excess -16.6%
219d
+23.6%
Win rate 100% Excess -0.7%
116d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 439 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 0.1%, win rate 51.3%, lagged the market by 8.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.44%, win rate 41.7%, beating the market by +0.6 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

48 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.18%, win rate 55.3%, beating the market by -2.23 pts on average.

What does 大國鋼 do? Company profile

鋼鐵工業；扣件通路與工業零組件配銷 上櫃

Overview

8415 對應證券為大成國際鋼鐵股份有限公司，簡稱大國鋼，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股。公司成立於 2007/07/12，總部位於台南市仁德區義林路122號，2010年公開發行並登錄興櫃，2016/09/07正式上櫃。董事長為謝麗雲，總經理為謝榮坤，發言人為張地金。櫃買 OpenAPI 於 2026/06/17 顯示實收資本額為新台幣 10,315,000,000 元，已發行普通股 1,031,500,000 股，無特別股與私募股。2024年永續報告書揭露資本額新台幣103.15億元、2024年集團營收新台幣227.1億元、截至2024/12/31員工人數1,268人，營運據點涵蓋台灣、美國、加拿大、英國、澳洲、紐西蘭、巴西。主要股東方面，櫃買中心持股逾10%大股東名單列示大成不銹鋼工業股份有限公司為大股東；鉅亨網顯示前十大持股約58%至59%，但前十大明細未在本次可查官方資料中完整取得。公司沿革重點包括：2008年購買 Brighton Best Socket Screws 海外營運據點資產；2013年 BBI-USA 購買美國扣件通路商 Porteous Fastener Company 資產；2015年購買 EZ Sockets 與澳洲 Socket Screws Australia 資產，並推出 Proferred Hand Tool；2017年購買澳洲 KOALA 資產；2018年購買 Ironclad Performance Wear 資產並設立大成帝國工業拓展鋁製品買賣；2021年購買美國不銹鋼扣件通路商 PFI, LLC 主要資產；2022年認購及收購正道公司私募普通股並具重大影響力，將其納入合併個體；2024年 BBI-USA 於杜拜設立子公司。

Business

大國鋼是以扣件與工業零組件為核心的全球通路商，主要業務為全球碳鋼、合金鋼、不銹鋼扣件市場通路及鋁製品買賣。產品涵蓋低、中、高碳鋼、合金鋼、不銹鋼之螺絲、螺帽、螺栓、墊圈、鉚釘、膨脹螺栓、工業用零組件、手工具、防護配件與鋁材貿易等。公司商業模式不是單純製造，而是整合東亞供應商與海外倉儲、電子商務、品管、報價、下單、物流、供應商庫存管理等服務，透過美國、加拿大、英國、澳洲、紐西蘭、巴西等地發貨倉庫，對歐美零售商或二次批發商提供標準扣件一次批發、24小時電子商務下單、隔日配送與客戶虛擬倉庫服務。2024年永續報告書揭露 2024 年合併營收為新台幣227.1億元；2026年第1季櫃買營益分析資料顯示營業收入新台幣66.16億元、毛利率39.07%、營業利益率20.89%、稅後純益率15.92%；2026年5月公開營收資料顯示單月營收新台幣23.32億元，年增20.69%，2026年1至5月累計營收新台幣114.41億元，年增15.41%。營收結構方面，官方資料明確揭露核心為扣件通路與鋁製品買賣，但本次未取得 2024 或 2025 年產品別精確百分比；第三方產業整理曾以2023年估計螺絲及螺帽約86%、鋁製品約3%、其他約11%，此比例未列為官方確認數字。終端應用包括 OEM 原廠設備製造、航太、汽車、機械、電子、電腦、家電、通訊、家具、營建、道路橋樑港口機場、MRO售後維修與DIY市場。公司官方網站亦顯示 BBI 只透過 distribution 銷售，凸顯其定位為通路批發商而非面向終端消費者的零售商。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望偏向溫和正面但具景氣循環與政策風險。成長動能包括：1. 美國降息循環若延續，客戶資金成本下降，2023年高利率造成的低安全庫存與延後採購有機會逐步回補；2024年永續報告書已提到美國通膨減輕與降息預期使客戶逐步恢復採購步調，2026年1至5月累計營收年增15.41%也支持需求復甦跡象。2. 大國鋼已完成美國合金鋼與碳鋼扣件通路整併，並在不銹鋼扣件、工具、防護配件、鋁材與中東杜拜據點擴展品項與區域，有助於提高一次購足能力。3. 電子商務平台、VMI、海外倉儲與即時庫存資訊可強化客戶黏著度，若歐美MRO、營建與製造業景氣回升，通路商可受惠於補庫存與價格彈性。4. 供應鏈ESG與CBAM壓力可能淘汰小型低價競爭者，公司前30大供應商已提供CBAM資料，且採購方向可能轉向規模較大、合規能力較強的供應商，長期有利於大型通路平台。5. 公司規劃太陽能發電案，設置容量687.25kWp、預估年發電量約978,300度，預計2025下半年啟用，有助於部分減碳與能源成本管理。主要風險包括：美國與歐洲工業景氣反轉、營建需求下滑、客戶再度去庫存、鋼材與線材價格波動、美元匯率波動、利率下降速度不如預期、海運與倉儲成本變動、關稅與貿易政策、CBAM與再生能源法規使供應鏈成本上升、供應商集中度提高後的議價與交期風險，以及大國鋼對美國市場與海外子公司通路的高度依賴。2027至2028年若美國製造回流、基礎建設與MRO需求延續，公司規模化倉儲與電子商務優勢可繼續發揮；但若扣件價格回落或美國經濟衰退，營收與毛利率可能同步承壓。上述2025至2028內容包含部分依官方揭露與產業景氣推導的分析，非公司財測。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 大成不銹鋼工業股份有限公司 2027 大國鋼之母公司與主要股東，集團在美國不銹鋼通路與金屬材料供應鏈具有資源；屬台股上市公司。
  • 中國鋼鐵股份有限公司 2002 永續報告書提及線材採購逐漸由中鋼高爐產線轉向電爐產線以降低高碳排原料來源；此為原料與線材供應鏈關聯，非本次確認之唯一或主要供應商。
  • 正道工業股份有限公司 1506 大國鋼於2022年認購及收購正道私募普通股並具重大影響力，將正道及其子公司列入合併個體；正道屬金屬與扣件相關供應鏈關係企業。
  • 東亞扣件與金屬加工供應商群 公司永續報告書稱其整合東亞地區供應商提供扣件，供應鏈包含碳鋼與不銹鋼盤元、抽線、浸線、球化、成型、熱處理、電鍍及表面處理等廠商；多數未具名或可能未上市。
  • 前30大供應商 永續報告書揭露前30大供應商約占8成多採購額，均已提供CBAM資料；未揭露逐家公司名，故 stock_id 設為 null。
Downstream
  • Brighton-Best International 美國、加拿大、英國、澳洲、紐西蘭、巴西等海外子公司與發貨倉庫 集團自有海外通路與倉儲配銷節點，負責對當地分銷商、零售商或二次批發商提供扣件與工業用品；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 歐美零售商與二次批發商 大國鋼透過實體通路與電子商務平台供應標準扣件給歐美零售商或二次批發商；官方未完整揭露具名客戶，且多數非台股掛牌。
  • OEM、Construction、MRO與DIY終端市場 終端應用涵蓋航太、汽車、機械、電子、電腦、家電、通訊、家具、營建、道路橋梁、港口、機場、售後維修及DIY等；此為應用市場分類，非單一掛牌公司。
  • Monster Bolt BBI美國官網2026年消息稱其獲選為 Monster Bolt 的 Preferred Supply Partner；Monster Bolt 非台股掛牌。

Competitors

  • Star Stainless Screw 美國不銹鋼扣件通路商；大國鋼永續報告書稱美國傳統四大扣件大盤商中目前僅剩 Star 專業經營不銹鋼扣件，非台股掛牌。
  • Fastenal Company 美國上市工業用品與扣件通路商，與大國鋼在北美MRO、工業扣件及供應鏈服務上具競爭或替代關係；非台股掛牌。
  • Würth Group 德國未上市大型扣件、裝配材料與工業用品通路集團，為全球工業通路競爭者；非台股掛牌。
  • Bossard Holding AG 瑞士上市扣件與裝配技術解決方案供應商，與大國鋼在全球扣件配銷、VMI與供應鏈服務具競爭關係；非台股掛牌。
  • 春雨工廠股份有限公司 2012 台股上市扣件與鋼線盤元相關公司；偏製造端，與大國鋼的通路商定位不同，但在扣件產品市場具間接競爭與供應鏈關聯。
  • 世德工業股份有限公司 2066 台股上市汽車扣件與精密金屬零件廠，主要競爭面在汽車與高值化扣件製造，與大國鋼通路模式不同。
  • 恒耀國際股份有限公司 8349 台股上櫃扣件相關公司，偏製造與全球供應，與大國鋼在部分扣件品類或客戶應用具間接競爭。
Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.