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8433

弘帆 Home & Living As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal

Revenue ≥20%

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 弘帆 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 弘帆 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 54th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.2%.
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 40th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 86th percentile.
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -1.4% of volume (net sell).
Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 24.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.18

BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
元大-崇德 holds 143 lots
sellers have 90 lots left, ~61 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 元大-崇德 has accumulated 143 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
Main distributor 群益金鼎-開元 peaked at 332 lots, has sold 83%, 56 left, paused recently.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.46pp, mid holders +1, retail +0.10pp — little change.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -41 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

元大-崇德合庫-三重元大-南京合庫-彰化富邦-敦南元大-新莊

Distributing

群益金鼎-開元德信富邦-南員林美商高盛富邦-木柵凱基-中山

Desks

own scale

富邦證券華南永昌-楠梓元大-大同新光

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

元大-崇德 +143

sold 0%
合庫-三重 +79

sold 11%
元大-南京 +70

sold 0%· still adding
合庫-彰化 +60

sold 6%
富邦-敦南 +58

sold 12%
元大-新莊 +49

sold 0%

Distributing

群益金鼎-開元 56 left

sold 83%· paused recently
德信 81 left

sold 64%· paused recently
富邦-南員林 61 left

sold 27%· ~61 sessions to clear
美商高盛 16 left

sold 45%· paused recently
富邦-木柵 13 left

sold 52%· ~19 sessions to clear
凱基-中山 9 left

sold 25%· paused recently

Desks

富邦證券 -144

unclassified
華南永昌-楠梓 -129

unclassified
元大-大同 -68

unclassified
新光 -65

unclassified

Still selling 90 lots ~61 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +182 absorbed / -30 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -1 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 24.12%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

44 historical occurrences (since 2012-12-19)

120 days after: historical avg +15.82%

20-day +5.13%

60-day +8.92%

120-day +15.82%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

59.5%

63.4%

76.9%

Sample

Median

+3.68%

+3.41%

+10.95%

Excess

+4.8%

+6.4%

+12.74%

Beat mkt rate

61.9%

53.7%

61.5%

Over 39 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 15.82%, beat the market by 12.74 pts; win rate 76.9%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +3%

20-40 -2%

40-60 +18.3%

60-80 -28.3%

80-100 -34.6% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	1120	+3%	-8.2%	41.2%	-20.5%
20-40	503	-2%	-2.2%	42.1%	-24.7%
40-60	367	+18.3%	+20.3%	73.6%	+14.9%
60-80	158	-28.3%	-28.9%	3.8%	-48.8%
80-100 You are here	125	-34.6%	-33.9%	1.6%	-53.6%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 18.57, at the 85.7th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

+3.5%

Win rate 56% Excess -5.6%

762d

+8%

Win rate 60% Excess +4.9%

280d

-12.6%

Win rate 28.3% Excess -22.1%

145d

60-day momentum down

-3.3%

Win rate 36.2% Excess -13.4%

788d

-5.9%

Win rate 52.1% Excess -19.8%

238d

Now

+0.2%

Win rate 63.5% Excess -21.6%

167d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 167 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 0.2%, win rate 63.5%, lagged the market by 21.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.83%, win rate 23.5%, beating the market by +2.15 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

34 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.74%, win rate 48.5%, beating the market by +1.84 pts on average.

What does 弘帆 do? Company profile

居家生活／貿易百貨／流行飾品與美容美髮用品上櫃（證券櫃檯買賣中心）

Overview

弘帆股份有限公司成立於1985年3月28日，總部位於台北市內湖區內湖路一段360巷17號5樓，2012年12月19日上櫃。公開資料顯示董事長為朱鵬飛，總經理為朱鵬飛，發言人為曹雪芳，代理發言人為朱英帆。Yahoo股市資料顯示股本為新台幣542,128,740元、已發行普通股54,212,874股，股務代理為富邦綜合證券，簽證會計師為勤業眾信。鉅亨網資料列示董事長為普世開發股份有限公司代表人朱鵬飛。公司主要經營流行髮飾、梳子、珠寶、手袋及其他進出口業務。員工規模與最新主要股東明細未能在本次公開網頁資料中完整確認，僅可確認董監持股比例約15.58%（Yahoo股市資料時間2025/12/27）。

Business

弘帆是以女性飾品、美容美髮用品與生活小物為核心的設計、生產、採購與外銷型企業，兼具貿易商、客製化設計與集團內部生產能力。主要產品包括流行髮飾、梳子、梳鏡、珠寶配飾、沐浴與修容用品、包袋、美妝用品、禮贈品、生活日用品，以及個人護理電器如直髮器、捲髮器、吹風機、充電式髮捲、適配器、電源線、SMT/PCBA組裝板、智能排插、智能充電器、變壓器、電機馬達、五金沖壓、咖啡機、麵包機與食物料理機等。MoneyDJ資料顯示2024年產品營收比重約為飾品90%、電器6%、租金收入及其他3%；銷售地區約美洲46%、歐洲42%、亞洲9%，主要外銷歐美。商業模式以承接歐美國際美容美髮品牌大廠訂單、客製化設計與製造、透過中間商與品牌商供應大型零售通路為主，終端通路包含Wal-Mart、Target、Costco、Walgreen、Carrefour、Watsons等。主要終端消費族群偏15至35歲女性。公司自有品牌包含AVIVA個人護理電器，過去亦以「綺麗生活館」切入中國大陸生活雜貨零售通路。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分為四個面向。第一，營收與獲利修復：2025年受匯率、市場變數與美國關稅不確定性影響，MoneyDJ報導公司2025年營收34.86億元、年減3.41%，毛利率23.3%、年減3.38個百分點，稅後純益1.73億元、年減67.36%，EPS 3.17元；2026年公司表示若台幣兌美元匯率回穩且市場無重大變數，在低基期下營運有望優於2025年。第二，市場結構調整：公司產品主要外銷歐美，美國市場過去占比較高，但因關稅與消費端保守，美國占比下降，歐洲比重微幅上升，目前美國與歐洲占比趨近，顯示未來成長需依賴歐洲客戶滲透、北美訂單回溫與客戶組合分散。第三，產品擴張：飾品仍為核心現金流，但個護電器、美容美髮電器、禮贈品、生活日用品與電子零組件組裝相關產品是提高客單價與分散單一髮飾品類風險的方向；若AVIVA及授權／品牌客戶訂單擴大，電器與新產品比重有機會提升。第四，產能與供應鏈：公司已在中國與越南布局生產，MoneyDJ列示越南Lucky Dragon Vietnam可生產電器、髮飾、塑膠五金、電子與手工車縫，供應鏈分散有助於降低中美貿易摩擦與單一產地風險。主要風險包括美元與新台幣匯率波動、美國關稅政策、歐美零售消費放緩、客戶訂單集中、流行飾品款式生命周期短、庫存跌價、低價競爭、勞動成本上升、授權商品需求波動，以及非核心電器品類若品質或安規控管不佳可能帶來退貨與品牌風險。2027至2028年缺乏公司正式財測，以上屬基於公開資料與產業邏輯的推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream

東莞美麗之星電子科技有限公司弘帆旗下或關係生產據點，MoneyDJ資料列示負責個人護理電器品生產；非台股掛牌。
河南普藝公司弘帆旗下或關係生產據點，MoneyDJ資料列示負責塑膠梳鏡廠生產；非台股掛牌。
LUCKY DRAGON VIETNAM CO., LTD. 弘帆越南生產據點，MoneyDJ資料列示生產電器、髮飾、塑膠五金、電子與手工車縫；非台股掛牌。
塑料ABS、塑料PP、尼龍毛針供應商 MoneyDJ列示為重要原物料項目，但未揭露具名供應商；屬原料供應鏈。
模具、注塑、噴塗烤漆、五金沖壓、SMT/PCBA與電機馬達供應商公司新產品與個護電器相關製造環節所需供應鏈；公開資料未確認具名供應商。

Downstream

Goody 歷史報導列為弘帆前兩大進口商客戶之一，產品銷往沃爾瑪等大型通路；非台股掛牌。
Conair 歷史報導列為弘帆前兩大客戶之一，屬美國美容美髮用品品牌／通路相關客戶；非台股掛牌。
Icon Live 歷史報導列為重要客戶，曾受惠迪士尼等授權商品需求；非台股掛牌。
Forever 21 歷史報導列為重要客戶之一，屬海外時尚零售品牌；非台股掛牌。
Wal-Mart MoneyDJ列示為透過中間商間接銷售之知名通路商；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
Target MoneyDJ列示為透過中間商間接銷售之知名通路商；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
Costco MoneyDJ列示為透過中間商間接銷售之知名通路商；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
Walgreen MoneyDJ列示為透過中間商間接銷售之藥妝／零售通路；美國上市公司相關通路，非台股掛牌。
Carrefour MoneyDJ列示為透過中間商間接銷售之知名通路商；非台股掛牌。
Watsons MoneyDJ列示為透過中間商間接銷售之知名通路商，屬屈臣氏零售通路；非台股掛牌。

Competitors

利豐 MoneyDJ列為國內外競爭同業之一；香港貿易與供應鏈企業，非台股掛牌。
志邦企業 MoneyDJ列為國內外競爭同業之一；公開資料未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
高林 2906 StockFeel列為弘帆貿易類競爭對手；台股上市櫃公司，但與弘帆髮飾／美容美髮用品並非完全同產品線。
特力 2908 StockFeel列為弘帆貿易類競爭對手；台股上市櫃公司，主要為貿易與居家零售，屬廣義通路／貿易比較對象。
客思達-KY 2936 StockFeel列為弘帆貿易類競爭對手；台股上市櫃公司，屬廣義居家生活／貿易比較對象。
歐都納 StockFeel列為弘帆貿易類競爭對手；台股上市櫃公司，屬廣義消費品／通路比較對象。
德記 5902 StockFeel列為弘帆貿易類競爭對手；台股上市櫃公司，屬廣義貿易流通比較對象。

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.