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8444
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 綠河-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 5th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -226.1%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 88th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 68th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -6.6% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -58% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 凱基 has accumulated 781 lots since the start (sold 8%), now trimming.
- Main distributor 富邦-宜蘭 peaked at 55 lots, has sold 64%, 20 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.55pp, mid holders +1, retail -1.26pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -141 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 凱基 +781
- 永豐金-竹科 +266
- 第一金-光復 +191
- 中國信託-文心 +143
- 元大-高雄 +142
- 兆豐-三重 +109
Distributing
- 富邦-宜蘭 20 left
- 新光-新竹 11 left
- 元大-永春 2 left
- 合庫-自強 8 left
- 華南永昌 8 left
- 兆豐-南京 2 left
Desks
- 永豐金證券 -989
- 宏遠證券 -435
- 國票-天祥 -189
- 台新 -147
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 20-40 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 40-60 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 60-80 You are here | 3 | Insufficient data | |||
| 80-100 | 145 | -41.1% | -40.8% | 2.8% | -81% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 38.46, at the 68.2th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
(0d)
(0d)
(21d)
(17d)
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 120 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 8.7%, win rate 63.3%, lagged the market by 53.5%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
5 times historically; 60-day forward avg +10.81%, win rate 60%, beating the market by +7.92 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
48 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.28%, win rate 47.5%, beating the market by -5.22 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
14 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.06%, win rate 42.9%, beating the market by -2.63 pts on average.
What does 綠河-KY do? Company profile
Overview
8444 對應證券為綠河-KY，櫃買中心上櫃普通股，ISIN 為 KYG409691006，產業別列為其他業，2015-10-27 上櫃。公司主體為綠河股份有限公司，英文名 Green River Holding Co. Ltd.，設立日期依公開資料與法說會為 2011-01-14，主要營運地在泰國南部宋卡府，地址為 222 Moo 4, T.Thachang, A.Bangklum, Songkhla, Thailand。董事長為謝榮輝，總經理為黃登士，發言人為王聖豐。2025 年 12 月法說會揭露資本額約新台幣 11.12 億元；Yahoo/玩股等資料列示股本約新台幣 1,111,668,450 元、已發行普通股 111,166,845 股。2024 年法說會揭露員工 1,116 人，其中塑合板 PB 738 人、實木 SW 311 人、尿醛膠 UF 67 人；2026 年 EMIS 摘要列 2023 年員工 1,047 人，故員工規模以約千人以上理解。集團主要子公司包括 Green River Panels (Thailand) Co., Ltd.、Green River Panels Trang (Thailand) Co., Ltd.、Green River Wood & Lumber Manufacturing (Thailand) Co., Ltd.、Happy Magic International Limited、TDIC South Co., Ltd.、Green River Parawood Co., Ltd. 等。可查主要內部人/董事持股包括董事長謝榮輝約 8,069 仟股、Chin Tai Holding Inc. 約 4,110 仟股等；完整前十大股東需以公開資訊觀測站年報表為準。
Business
綠河-KY 是以泰國橡膠木資源為基礎的人造板材與實木板材製造商，主要產品為塑合板/刨花板 Particle Board、三聚氰胺貼面板 Melamine Faced Chipboard、實木板 Solid wood，以及尿醛膠/樹脂 Urea-Formaldehyde Resin。官方網站稱公司在泰國擁有實木板廠、塑合板廠與三聚氰胺板材廠；法說會則列示塑合板一廠 2008 年量產、二廠 2016 年量產、三廠 2020 年量產，並有貼皮廠與膠合劑廠，形成橡膠木原料、板材、貼面加工與膠合劑部分垂直整合。應用包括系統家具、系統廚具、辦公家具、抽屜、地板、棧板、音箱、綠色建築及環保複合建材。2025 年前三季法說會揭露塑合板營收比重按產品別約為 P2 31%、E2 27%、E1 13%、E0 12%、MFC 11%、F4 5%、MD 1%；按地區約為東南亞 65%、中國 20%、韓國 12%、其他 3%。MoneyDJ 2026-01-08 條目列 2024 年營收比重為塑合板 92%、實木板材 7%、膠合劑 1%。商業模式以在泰國採購/加工橡膠木枝椏材、邊皮材、小徑木與製材剩餘物，製成板材後外銷為主，主要銷售地區為馬來西亞、韓國、中國及其他東南亞國家；主要客戶類型為家具製造商與貿易商，法說會並提及下游加工後銷往終端客戶如 Home Depot、Amazon，以及已與日本 Panasonic 合作。2025 年合併財報列營業收入新台幣 3,259,424 仟元，低於 2024 年 4,883,129 仟元；2025 年營業毛損 355,000 仟元、營業損失 894,921 仟元、稅後淨損 1,109,769 仟元。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 至 2028 年展望可分為三條主軸。第一，塑合板本業仍受亞洲家具供應鏈、低碳板材與高階板材需求支撐，公司法說會指出亞洲 PB 仍有以塑合板取代其他工程木材與實木板的潛力，中國訂製家具市場對健康、環保、高階板材需求提升，澳洲因住宅與進口需求增加亦為拓展方向；但 2025 年前三季區域仍高度集中於東南亞與中國，價格競爭與需求波動會直接影響毛利。第二，公司正在往下游家具市場拓展，增加裁切、封邊、鑽孔、貼皮等加工能力，目標是提高產品多樣性、改善單純素板價格競爭下的毛利穩定度，並拓展日本、澳洲、美國訂單；法說會提及已與日本 Panasonic 合作，但未揭露可量化訂單金額。第三，公司前進生質能木質顆粒產業，利用木材剩餘物與森林撫育副產品，規劃工業用木質顆粒生產線，法說會列示專案 2026Q1 安裝投產、2026Q2 出貨，年產能 30 萬噸以上，銷售對象為歐洲、日本、韓國大型發電廠，若順利放量，2026-2028 可能成為新成長動能並分散單一塑合板市場壓力。主要風險包括：2025 年財報已揭露繼續經營重大不確定性，淨損、累積虧損與流動負債超過流動資產顯示財務流動性壓力；高負債與利息成本、泰銖/美元/新台幣匯率、木材與膠合劑原料價格、亞洲 PB 產能競爭、環保與甲醛排放標準、FSC/碳排規範、木質顆粒新產線投產與銷售驗證不確定性，均可能影響 2026-2028 復甦路徑。公司未提供 2027-2028 明確財務預測，所有成長判斷均屬依公司法說會與產業趨勢推估。
Supply Chain
- 泰國南部橡膠林與製材廠供應體系 主要原料來源為橡膠樹砍伐、加工製材剩餘物、枝椏材、邊皮材、小徑木與鋸屑等；多為泰國當地未上市供應商或林業/製材體系。
- Green River Parawood Co., Ltd. 集團關係企業，負責橡膠木原料採購及裁切，未在台股上市櫃。
- TDIC South Co., Ltd. 集團 85% 持股子公司，生產與銷售膠合劑，主要支援塑合板生產，未在台股上市櫃。
- 浸漬紙、尿素、甲醛與樹脂化學品供應商 三聚氰胺板與尿醛膠所需原料來源；公開資料未揭露具名供應商，多屬非台股或未上市供應商。
- 木工、人造板與貼面加工設備供應商 提供連續壓機、貼面、裁切、封邊、鑽孔及木質顆粒設備；公開資料未揭露具名供應商。
- 家具製造商與家具貿易商 公司法說會列為主要客戶類型，使用塑合板、MFC 與實木板材製造系統家具、廚具、辦公家具、音箱與建材；多為海外客戶，未逐一揭露名稱。
- The Home Depot, Inc. 法說會提及下游加工後銷往終端客戶如 Home Depot；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- Amazon.com, Inc. 法說會提及下游加工後銷往終端客戶如 Amazon；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- Panasonic Holdings Corporation 法說會與 MoneyDJ 提及已與日本 Panasonic 合作；日本上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- 歐洲、日本、韓國大型發電廠 公司規劃 2026Q2 起銷售工業用木質顆粒給大型發電廠；公開資料未揭露具名客戶，屬未確認未來下游客戶群。
Competitors
- Vanachai Group Public Company Limited 泰國人造板與木製板材同業，泰國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- Panel Plus Co., Ltd. 泰國大型人造板、MDF/PB 與貼面板業者，非台股掛牌。
- Evergreen Fibreboard Berhad 馬來西亞 MDF/PB 與木製板材同業，馬來西亞上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- HeveaBoard Berhad 馬來西亞橡膠木與粒片板相關製造商，馬來西亞上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- 華旗實業 MoneyDJ 列為國內複合板競爭廠商；查無台股上市櫃代號，視為未上市或非台股掛牌。
- 吉祥工業 MoneyDJ 列為國內複合板競爭廠商；查無台股上市櫃代號，視為未上市或非台股掛牌。
Sources（15）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.