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8482

商億-KY Home & Living As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal

Revenue ≥20%

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 商億-KY to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 商億-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 60th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.1%.
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 46th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 92th percentile.
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 13.7% of volume (net buy).
Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 30.8%, above the 20% growth threshold.
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral -0.00

BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
台新證券 holds 44 lots
sellers have 31 lots left, ~120 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 台新證券 has accumulated 44 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 24 lots, has sold 54%, 11 left, ~8 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.37pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.28pp — little change.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -12 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

台新證券凱基-大安花旗環球富邦-台北玉山-台南光和-嘉義

Distributing

台灣摩根士丹利摩根大通元大證券國泰-台中凱基美商高盛

Desks

own scale

永豐金證券富邦-建國美林兆豐證券

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

台新證券 +44

sold 0%
凱基-大安 +41

sold 0%
花旗環球 +34

sold 0%· still adding
富邦-台北 +15

sold 0%· still adding
玉山-台南 +14

sold 0%
光和-嘉義 +14

sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

台灣摩根士丹利 11 left

sold 54%· ~8 sessions to clear
摩根大通 12 left

sold 29%· ~120 sessions to clear
元大證券 7 left

sold 46%· ~23 sessions to clear
國泰-台中 2 left

sold 50%· paused recently
凱基 1 left

sold 67%· ~10 sessions to clear
美商高盛 1 left

sold 67%· paused recently

Desks

永豐金證券 -27

unclassified
富邦-建國 -21

unclassified
美林 -20

hedge desk · will cover
兆豐證券 -17

unclassified

Still selling 31 lots ~120 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +31 absorbed / -18 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -4 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 30.79%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

15 historical occurrences (since 2019-04-10)

120 days after: historical avg -2.86%

20-day +1.15%

60-day -6.92%

120-day -2.86%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

57.1%

28.6%

Sample

Median

+1.55%

-3.67%

-3.11%

Excess

+1.23%

-7.9%

-10.1%

Beat mkt rate

42.9%

35.7%

14.3%

Over 14 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 2.86%, lagged the market by 10.1 pts; win rate 28.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +5%

20-40 -5.8%

40-60 -6.4%

60-80 Insufficient data

80-100 -4% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	361	+5%	+4.6%	88.1%	-1.9%
20-40	61	-5.8%	-4.4%	18%	-38.6%
40-60	133	-6.4%	-8.2%	29.3%	-63.5%
60-80	28	Insufficient data
80-100 You are here	321	-4%	-7.8%	32.4%	-26.6%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 20.66, at the 92.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

+1.2%

Win rate 56.7% Excess +0.3%

247d

-4%

Win rate 0% Excess -11.3%

38d

Now

-0.6%

Win rate 32.2% Excess -10.2%

205d

60-day momentum down

+5.5%

Win rate 93.3% Excess +3.8%

134d

-7%

Win rate 20.6% Excess -36.5%

199d

+2.8%

Win rate 54.5% Excess -17%

143d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 205 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 0.6%, win rate 32.2%, lagged the market by 10.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

8 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.44%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -0.92 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

31 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.09%, win rate 51.7%, beating the market by -4.24 pts on average.

What does 商億-KY do? Company profile

居家生活／高端室內家具設計、研發與製造臺灣證券交易所上市

Overview

8482 對應證券為商億-KY，係臺灣證券交易所上市普通股，發行主體為商億全球控股有限公司，英文名 Shane Global Holding Inc.。公司於 2014 年 9 月 30 日成立於英屬開曼群島，主要係為來臺第一上市所進行之控股架構重組；2018 年 8 月 15 日於臺灣證券交易所掛牌上市。公司聯絡處位於台北市大安區敦化南路二段 97 號 2 樓，官方揭露實收資本額為新臺幣 1,074,440,000 元，已發行普通股 107,444,000 股。董事長為謝智通；公司官網揭露總經理為謝淑韞，年報同時說明公司係設置執行長取代總經理一職。員工規模方面，官網揭露 2,185 人；2025 年年報截至 2026 年 4 月 24 日揭露合計 2,101 人，因年報時間較新，本研究以 2,101 人作為較新口徑。主要股東依 2026 年 4 月 14 日停止過戶日年報資料，包括 Cosie Investment Holdings Limited 持股 41.32%、中國信託商業銀行受託保管禮億持股有限公司 20.66%、Professional Advantage International Limited 15.53%、Active Industries Worldwide Limited 3.72%、Major Worldwide Development Limited 3.72%。

Business

商億-KY 主要從事室內家具之研發、設計、製造與銷售，產品包括沙發、床、擱腳、餐椅及其他家居生活家具用品；製程涵蓋樣式與尺寸設計、打版、木架製作、皮革或布料裁剪、車縫、泡棉與獨立筒置入、繃製與成品組裝。商業模式由 OEM 逐步轉向 ODM 與客製化訂單，鎖定北美中高價位及高端家具品牌與零售通路，提供設計、製造、供應鏈協調與即時化生產服務。公司自 2008 年發展 Special Order 客製化模式，可在一定規格範圍內提供材質、顏色、尺寸等客製選項，年報稱美國西岸消費者約 5 週、東岸約 7 週可收到商品。2025 年營收地區結構為美國 78.87%、柬埔寨 7.01%、歐洲 5.51%、中國大陸 4.80%、其他 3.81%，顯示仍高度倚重美國市場。2025 年主要客戶集中度高，前三大客戶 CB 集團、CC 集團、CA 集團分別占銷貨淨額 30.38%、18.63%、14.83%，合計約 63.84%；公司年報未揭露其完整公司名稱，但描述 CB 集團為全球知名高品質家居用品專業零售商、CA 集團為美國經典風格大型家具與家居用品集團、CC 集團為美國領先數位室內設計與家居電商整合平台。第三方 2025 法說整理提及產品組合以沙發為最大宗，2025 年前三季沙發約占營收 63.51%、餐椅 12.67%、床具 6.60%、其餘為其他室內外家具；此產品占比非本次查核到的公司年報原文，採中等信心引用。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年公司營運受美國關稅政策、全球通膨與家具終端消費放緩影響，年報明確指出 2025 年營收與淨利較前一年下滑，且因柬埔寨生產基地關稅優惠取消，公司為維持長期訂單與客戶關係採取部分價格折扣與利潤分享策略。2026 年至 2028 年的主要成長動能在於：一、柬埔寨產能與稼動率提升，年報與 2026 年股東會新聞均指出柬埔寨出貨或營收占比已提升至 60% 以上，可降低中國出口美國關稅壓力並承接供應鏈轉移需求；二、核心美系高端家具客戶訂單維持，公司強調與主要客戶共同開發、JIT 生產與客製化交期優勢；三、非美市場拓展，公司年報與新聞均提及將降低對美國單一市場依賴，拓展歐洲、日本、澳洲與中國大陸，並於 2025 年下半年積極接洽歐洲大型零售百貨商訂單，目標 2026 年提升非美營收占比；四、產品延伸，除室內沙發外，規劃延伸至高端戶外家具與硬木家具；五、若美國房市與高端消費於 2026 至 2028 年逐步回溫，家具汰換與居家升級需求可支撐訂單。主要風險包括：美國與東南亞家具進口關稅政策再變動、柬埔寨優惠或稅率不確定、第一大客戶 2025 年占比 30.38% 的銷售集中風險、美國高房價與高房貸利率壓抑家具需求、牛皮與布料等原料價格波動、中國大陸人力成本上升、美元兌人民幣匯率波動、柬埔寨擴產與品質交期管理風險，以及全球高端家具競爭加劇。2027 至 2028 年具體財務數字未見公司公開量化指引，本段屬基於公司公開策略、產業趨勢與已揭露訂單／產能方向的研究推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream

牛皮供應商（年報未揭露特定公司）主要原料之一；公司年報稱牛皮除向國外廠商採購進口外，也向境內鄰近供應商採購，且採購政策原則上維持兩家以上供應商以提高供貨彈性。
布料供應商（年報未揭露特定公司）主要原料之一；公司年報稱主要原料牛皮及布料供應正常，最近二年度無單一供應商進貨占比超過 10%。
海綿、泡棉及木材供應商（年報未揭露特定公司）用於沙發、床具與室內家具骨架及填充材料；年報表示海綿及木材以中國大陸及柬埔寨境內鄰近供應商採購為主。
獨立筒、五金及家具零組件供應商（年報未揭露特定公司）用於沙發、床、餐椅等家具製程；公司未揭露具名供應商，僅稱與主要供應商長期合作且供應無虞。

Downstream

CB 集團 2025 年第一大客戶，占銷貨淨額 30.38%；年報描述為全球知名高品質家居用品專業零售商，全球逾 600 家實體門市且逾半位於美國市場，但未揭露完整公司名稱，應視為匿名揭露客戶。
CC 集團 2025 年第二大客戶，占銷貨淨額 18.63%；年報描述為美國領先的數位室內設計與家居電商整合平台，未揭露完整公司名稱。
CA 集團 2025 年第三大客戶，占銷貨淨額 14.83%；年報描述為以美國經典風格著稱之大型家具及家居用品集團，近年調整供應鏈配置，部分產品轉向東南亞供應或移回美國在地工廠，未揭露完整公司名稱。
北美高端家具品牌商與大型家居用品零售商公司核心下游客群；終端應用為中高價位室內家具、客製化沙發、床具、餐椅及居家生活家具。
歐洲、日本、澳洲及中國大陸家具通路與零售客戶公司計畫拓展的非美市場，用於分散美國市場及關稅政策風險；具名客戶未揭露。

Competitors

特昇-KY 6616 臺灣櫃買中心掛牌家具製造商，主打北美市場與家具外銷，與商億-KY在外銷家具製造及北美通路供應上具競爭或可比關係。
詩肯 6195 臺灣櫃買中心掛牌家具品牌與連鎖通路商，偏下游零售與品牌通路，與商億-KY製造外銷模式不同，但同屬居家家具消費鏈。
億豐 8464 臺灣上市居家生活類股，主力為窗簾與居家裝飾產品，非直接沙發製造同業，但在高端居家用品與北美通路供應鏈具部分可比性。
La-Z-Boy Incorporated 美國上市家具品牌與製造零售商，股票代號 LZB，為全球沙發與躺椅市場競爭者；非台股掛牌。
Hooker Furnishings Corporation 美國上市家具公司，股票代號 HOFT，經營家具設計、進口與批發；非台股掛牌。
Bassett Furniture Industries, Incorporated 美國上市家具製造與零售公司，股票代號 BSET；非台股掛牌。
Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. 美國上市高端家具與室內設計零售品牌，股票代號 ETD；非台股掛牌。
Ashley Furniture Industries 美國大型家具品牌與零售通路，未上市公司；在北美家具供應鏈與客製化家具市場具競爭與客戶重疊可能。
敏華控股香港上市家具製造與品牌公司，港股代號 1999，旗下芝華仕等品牌；非台股掛牌。
順誠控股／台升國際集團香港上市家具集團，港股代號 0531，具垂直整合家具製造與美國品牌布局；非台股掛牌。

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.