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8499

鼎炫-KY Other Electronics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 鼎炫-KY to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 54Quality 62Growth 90Momentum 76Chips 81

Is 鼎炫-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~81% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.3%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 62th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 6.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 85.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.31
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 元富 holds 167 lots
  • sellers have 24 lots left, ~20 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +4% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元富 has accumulated 167 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 富邦-八德 peaked at 47 lots, has sold 40%, 28 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.01pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -245 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元富富邦-南員林國票證券台新-台北統一台新-大昌
Distributing
富邦-八德新光統一-士林元大-忠孝國泰-敦南國泰證券
Desks
own scale
美林凱基-台北中國信託富邦-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元富 +167
    sold 0%
  • 富邦-南員林 +104
    sold 8%· still adding
  • 國票證券 +95
    sold 25%
  • 台新-台北 +84
    sold 21%
  • 統一 +83
    sold 10%
  • 台新-大昌 +76
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 富邦-八德 28 left
    sold 40%· paused recently
  • 新光 8 left
    sold 71%· ~16 sessions to clear
  • 統一-士林 20 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 元大-忠孝 18 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 5 left
    sold 79%· ~17 sessions to clear
  • 國泰證券 14 left
    sold 36%· paused recently

Desks

  • 美林 -167
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -106
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 中國信託 -93
    unclassified
  • 富邦-台北 -66
    unclassified
Still selling 24 lots ~20 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +137 absorbed / -18 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -113 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 85.65%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

41 historical occurrences (since 2018-02-12)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 55%, Sample 40, Median +2.7%, Excess +1.54%, Beat mkt rate 55%；60-day: Win 68.4%, Sample 38, Median +8.28%, Excess -0.41%, Beat mkt rate 47.4%；120-day: Win 60%, Sample 35, Median +7.83%, Excess +2.64%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%

120 days after: historical avg +17.22%

20-day +4.8%
60-day +7.68%
120-day +17.22%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55%
68.4%
60%
Sample
40
38
35
Median
+2.7%
+8.28%
+7.83%
Excess
+1.54%
-0.41%
+2.64%
Beat mkt rate
55%
47.4%
42.9%

Over 35 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 17.22%, beat the market by 2.64 pts; win rate 60%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 571-3.8% -3.1% 36.6% -16.1%
20-40 182-1.9% -3.7% 20.3% -26.5%
40-60 105+52.9% +34.5% 77.1% +46.7%
60-80 137+103% +114.2% 97.8% +60.2%
80-100 You are here92+137.2% +125.3% 100% +94%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 30.41, at the 98.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-4.8%
Win rate 18.3% Excess -14%
312d
+5.6%
Win rate 33.7% Excess -3.2%
104d
Now
+47.7%
Win rate 81.7% Excess +22.6%
208d
60-day momentum down
+0.2%
Win rate 54% Excess -5.7%
424d
+17.5%
Win rate 76.1% Excess +3.4%
67d
+39.7%
Win rate 97.8% Excess +30.2%
92d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 208 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 47.7%, win rate 81.7%, beat the market by 22.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.91%, win rate 27.3%, beating the market by -8.19 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.85%, win rate 58.3%, beating the market by +0.72 pts on average.

What does 鼎炫-KY do? Company profile

其他電子業 上市（臺灣證券交易所）

Overview

8499 對應證券為鼎炫-KY，為臺灣證券交易所上市普通股，不是 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司全名為鼎炫投資控股股份有限公司，英文名 TOP BRIGHT HOLDING CO., LTD.，為英屬開曼群島註冊之外國第一上市控股公司；公司成立日為 2013/11/08，臺灣掛牌上市日為 2017/11/24。臺灣登記/通訊地址為新北市五股區五權七路20號1樓，集團營運重心在中國江蘇昆山，並有昆山、淮安、重慶、越南、泰國等生產或營運布局。董事長為傅青炫，總經理為傅秀月。公開資料顯示實收資本額約新臺幣 411,655,570 元，已發行普通股約 41,165,557 股。2025 年報顯示 2025 年員工總數約 1,124 人。主要股東/控制架構以傅青炫、張東琴及其控制之境外持股公司為核心，年報揭露傅青炫透過 Trillions Sheen Holdings、LinkPlus Capital、RISING LUCK、Lucky Noble、B&S、Glory Sharp 等合計持股約 65.78%；RISING LUCK 持股約 15.88%，LinkPlus Capital 與 Lucky Noble 各約 7.87%，傅青炫本人約 4.37%，Lucky Cheer 約 3.78%。集團主要子公司包括衡器事業的台衡精密測控（昆山）、台灣衡器、T-Scale Weighing India，以及材料事業的隆揚電子（昆山，301389.SZ，鼎炫間接持股約 69.25%）、聚赫新材、淮安富揚、重慶川揚、隆揚越南、隆揚美國、隆揚泰國，以及 2025 年併入/收購的常州威斯雙聯、蘇州德佑新材料等。

Business

鼎炫-KY 是控股型集團，主要由兩大事業體驅動：一是電子衡器，二是電子材料。2025 年營收按產品別為電子材料新臺幣 2,198,128 千元、占 75.47%；電子衡器新臺幣 714,432 千元、占 24.53%；合計新臺幣 2,912,560 千元。衡器事業承襲台灣衡器工廠，產品包括計價秤、計數秤、檢重秤、臺秤、地磅、吊秤、叉車秤、醫療秤、秤重儀表、感測器、智慧化秤重系統與相關軟體，品項約 800 多種規格；銷售模式包含自有品牌 T-Scale 透過 200 多家代理商銷往全球 80 餘國，以及替國際品牌做 OEM/ODM。法說簡報揭露台衡產品應用約為工業 50%、商業 33%、實驗室 9%、醫療保健 8%。材料事業以隆揚電子為核心，產品包括 EMI/EMC 電磁遮罩材料、吸波材料、散熱均溫/熱管理材料、絕緣材料、緩衝減震材料、工業膠帶、模切加工，以及近年新增的電子銅箔。材料產品下游應用涵蓋消費電子、汽車電子、PCB 線路板、顯示面板、AI/HPC 伺服器、交換器、AI PC、5G 通訊基站與高速資料傳輸設備。商業模式上，衡器事業偏向自有品牌、代理通路與 OEM/ODM；材料事業偏向客戶認證導入、客製化材料與模切加工方案，並透過併購擴充 EMI、散熱、膠帶與銅箔產品線。公司年報表示 2024-2025 年無單一供應商進貨占比超過 10%，也無單一客戶銷貨占比超過 10%；不過隆揚電子過往招股書曾揭露其產品終端應用對蘋果公司有較高依賴，這是歷史資訊，與 2025 年鼎炫年報的客戶分散描述需分開看待。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望重點在三條線：既有消費電子材料復甦、併購帶來產品與客戶協同、以及高頻高速銅箔新事業。2025 年公司營收與獲利已恢復成長，年報揭露 EPS 10.13 元、純益率 22.56%，並指出消費電子市場需求逐漸回歸正常。2026 年營運計畫包括拓展東南亞市場、布局越南與泰國生產據點、提高海外供應能力、加強 AI 前沿材料與智能化衡器研發、推動數位轉型與智慧製造。銅箔方面，隆揚/聚赫新材已推出 PTS 系列高頻低損耗銅箔與 AI/HPC 次世代 HVLP5+ 產品，法說會稱產品包含 AI 高頻高速低損耗銅箔、PI 載體可剝銅箔、細線路 2L FCCL，目前正與覆銅板與 PCB 製造商驗證，目標應用於 AI 伺服器、交換器與 AI PC；2025 年報也稱相關產品逐步進入 CCL 與 PCB 廠驗證階段。法說資料引用 Gartner/工研院資料，稱 AI 應用市場至 2028 年規模可達 1,590 億美元、CAGR 24.3%，通訊與運算占比合計 85.6%，這是銅箔新產品的主要需求敘事。併購方面，2025 年隆揚電子規劃以自有資金約人民幣 10 億元、約 10 倍估值併購 1-2 家優質企業；威斯雙聯於 2025 Q3 併入，蘇州德佑預計/已於 2025 年下半年併入，德佑新材主要做減震膠帶與特殊工業膠帶，新聞引述稱客戶包括三星、華為、小米，並導入蘋果、特斯拉。2028 年前的主要成長動能包括：AI/HPC 對低損耗材料需求提升、HVLP5+ 銅箔若通過客戶認證可放量、德佑/威斯雙聯併購整合、越南與泰國產能支援海外供應鏈重組、衡器往智慧化與醫療/實驗室擴張。主要風險包括：高頻銅箔仍在驗證與試運行階段，量產良率與客戶認證時程不確定；淮安二期與銅箔全制程產線的資本支出與折舊壓力；原物料價格、匯率與地緣政治風險；開曼 KY 架構與中國大陸營運地的法規/股東權益差異；消費電子需求波動；併購整合與承諾利潤達成風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中國大陸原料供應商（多家） 年報揭露電子衡器主要原料包含傳感器、壓鑄件、鈑金件、IC 晶片及電路板；EMI 材料主要原料包含輕盈紡、滌絲紡布、無氧銅、金川鎳、鎳靶、導電膠及發泡材料，主要供應商多位於中國大陸，且無單一供應商進貨占比超過 10%。
  • 感測器與電子零組件供應商（多家） 衡器事業上游，供應秤重感測器、電子電路、IC、PCB、五金與機構件；公司採兩家以上供應商策略以降低供應中斷風險。
  • 無氧銅、鎳靶、導電膠與發泡材料供應商（多家） EMI/熱管理與銅箔材料上游原料；年報未揭露具名供應商，故以原料類別表示。
  • 真空濺鍍與水電鍍製程設備/材料供應鏈 高頻銅箔與複合銅箔研發需真空磁控濺射、連續卷狀水電鍍等設備與製程材料；具名供應商未公開。
Downstream
  • 全球衡器代理商與經銷商（200 多家） 台衡/T-Scale 自有品牌通路，產品銷往全球 80 餘國，應用於商業、工業、實驗室、醫療保健等領域。
  • 國際電子衡器品牌/OEM ODM 客戶 衡器事業替全球知名品牌大廠設計開發與貼牌生產；年報未揭露具名客戶。
  • 消費電子品牌與 EMS 代工廠 材料事業 EMI、散熱、緩衝與模切產品下游；年報稱獲品牌大廠與代工大廠肯定但未揭露 2025 具名客戶。隆揚電子過往招股書揭露終端應用曾高度依賴蘋果，蘋果為美國上市公司，非台股。
  • 覆銅板（CCL）與 PCB 製造商 高頻低損耗銅箔、HVLP5+、PI 載體銅箔、細線路 FCCL 的驗證與導入對象；年報與法說會稱產品逐步進入 CCL 與 PCB 廠驗證階段，未揭露具名客戶。
  • 三星、華為、小米、蘋果、特斯拉等終端品牌 MoneyDJ 報導引述董事長說法，德佑新材客戶主要為三星、華為、小米，並導入蘋果、特斯拉；均非台股掛牌公司，且此為新聞引述而非年報逐名揭露。

Competitors

  • 梅特勒托利多（Mettler Toledo） 電子衡器全球競爭對手，美國紐約證交所上市，非台股。
  • Bizerba 德國衡器與秤重解決方案廠，非台股。
  • 寺岡精工（DIGI） 日本電子衡器競爭對手，非台股。
  • CAS Corporation 韓國衡器廠，KOSDAQ 掛牌，非台股。
  • 廣東香山衡器集團 中國 A 股上市衡器競爭對手，深圳代號 002870，非台股。
  • 中航電測儀器 中國 A 股上市感測器/衡器相關競爭者，深圳代號 300114，非台股。
  • 英展實業 台灣電子測量與秤重設備廠，年報列為衡器競爭對手；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • Parker Hannifin EMI/熱管理材料國際競爭者，美國上市，非台股。
  • Gore Company 高性能材料與 EMI/導熱相關競爭者，非台股。
  • Laird Technologies EMI、導熱與天線解決方案競爭者，已被私募/杜邦相關交易整併，非台股。
  • Polymer Science Company EMI 泡棉、膠帶與導熱材料競爭者，非台股。
  • A-JIN Electron 韓國軟性電磁遮罩材料競爭者，非台股。
  • 深圳市飛榮達科技 中國 A 股 EMI/導熱材料競爭者，深圳代號 300602，非台股。
  • 蘇州安潔科技 中國 A 股消費電子功能性器件競爭者，深圳代號 002635，非台股。
  • 上藝工業 台灣背膠、絕緣、緩衝泡棉與遮罩材料廠，年報列為材料競爭對手；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 三井金屬商事 日本高性能銅箔與高頻高速材料競爭者，非台股。
  • 金居開發 8358 台股上櫃電子銅箔廠；年報未列名，但就鼎炫切入高頻銅箔而言屬台股可比/潛在競爭公司，為分析推估。
  • 南亞塑膠 1303 台股上市，具銅箔/CCL 相關材料布局；年報未列名，列為高頻材料與銅箔供應鏈可比公司之分析推估。
Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.