Ask AI to review this stock
Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.
Tell your AI:
Help me set up FinLab and analyze 9907 統一實. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=9907
9907
steady quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 統一實 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
-
Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 41th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.1%.
-
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 26th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 24th percentile.
-
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -21.5% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Distribution to retail — bearish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -11% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 合庫證券 has accumulated 2,086 lots since the start (sold 4%), still adding.
- Main distributor 永豐金證券 peaked at 2,097 lots, has sold 71%, 616 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -4.81pp, mid holders -11, retail +4.71pp — drifting down to retail.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -16,447 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 合庫證券 +2,086
- 合庫-自強 +1,646
- 元大-復北 +1,212
- 國泰-敦南 +1,119
- 永豐金-匯立 +1,048
- 國泰證券 +978
Distributing
- 永豐金證券 616 left
- 新光-台中 198 left
- 富邦-台中 247 left
- 元大-豐原站前 289 left
- 兆豐證券 172 left
- 元大-佳里 73 left
Desks
- 台灣摩根士丹利 -16,152
- 凱基-台北 -12,716
- 新加坡商瑞銀 -9,880
- 美商高盛 -9,741
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 638 | +4.2% | -1.9% | 43.7% | -8.5% |
| 20-40 You are here | 845 | +3.3% | -2% | 46.4% | -20% |
| 40-60 | 547 | -8% | -9.9% | 32.4% | -15.3% |
| 60-80 | 773 | +2.7% | +2.5% | 61.1% | -15.1% |
| 80-100 | 240 | +39.7% | +39.4% | 89.6% | +21.2% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 15.0, at the 23.8th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 555 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 4.7%, win rate 55%, lagged the market by 8.5%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.29%, win rate 41.7%, beating the market by -1.27 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
56 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.75%, win rate 68.1%, beating the market by +2.94 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
70 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.13%, win rate 42%, beating the market by -3.25 pts on average.
What does 統一實 do? Company profile
Overview
9907 對應證券為統一實業股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，英文全名 TON YI INDUSTRIAL CORP.。公司成立於1969年4月14日，1991年1月29日上市，總部位於台南市永康區蔦松里中正北路837號。董事長為羅智先，總經理為徐金成、張祐信；實收資本額15,791,453,420元，已發行普通股1,579,145,342股。公司隸屬統一企業集團，主要股東為統一企業股份有限公司，公開資料顯示持股約45.55%；另董監事持股資料可見高權投資股份有限公司約1.63%、陳國賡約0.50%。員工規模方面，104人力銀行揭露約1,110人，非公司年報逐字查核數字，故僅作參考。公司定位為統一集團包裝材料與飲料代工平台，也是台灣少數具馬口鐵底片、鍍錫、彩印、製罐到飲料充填整合能力的廠商。
Business
主要業務分為鐵產品與飲料包裝兩大部門。鐵產品包含馬口鐵底片TMBP、冷軋鋼捲SPCC、馬口鐵、彩印鐵皮、馬口鐵空罐、鍍製鋼片與相關鋼板加工，應用於食品罐、飲料罐、電子、電器與鍍鋅用薄鋼板等。飲料包裝包含PET瓶胚、塑膠瓶蓋、吹瓶、PET飲料充填、TP利樂包充填、NBC新型鋁瓶罐與飲料代工。公司商業模式是以垂直整合降低包材成本與品質波動，並配合集團及外部品牌客戶提供從包裝材料到成品灌裝的一站式服務。2025年公開新聞與法說摘要顯示，鐵產品約占營收53%，飲料包裝約占47%；2025年合併營收456.38億元、年增1.74%，全年營收創高，獲利受惠於鐵產品與飲料包裝銷量改善。主要客戶與終端應用包含統一企業集團及其中國飲料事業、食品罐與飲料品牌客戶；市場報導提及中國外部客戶包含紅牛能量飲料、東鵬飲料等，但個別客戶營收占比未由公司逐項揭露。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年公司營收創高且獲利成長，主要來自鐵產品與飲料包裝銷量提升；2026年上半年則面臨鐵產品二次軋延DR材產線優化工程影響，市場報導引述公司法說指出既有產能約20%受影響，短期產銷承壓。中期成長動能包括：1. DR材與SR/DR共用線升級，DR材具較高強度、較薄厚度與較高附加價值，若2026年底至2027年順利投產並放量，有助改善產品組合與降低單純馬口鐵價格波動對毛利的衝擊；2. 飲料包裝與充填需求仍受中國飲料市場、統一集團通路與外部品牌訂單支撐，PET、TP、瓶蓋、瓶胚與NBC新型鋁瓶罐產能擴充可望帶動2026至2028年業務比重提升；3. 越南與中國子公司提供區域化生產基地，可服務東南亞與中國內需市場。主要風險包括馬口鐵、鋼材、PET樹脂、鋁材、錫價與能源價格波動，人民幣與新台幣匯率波動，中國飲料消費景氣與競爭加劇，DR材投產時程、良率與客戶認證不確定性，以及跨境供應鏈、關稅與地緣政治風險。2027至2028年的具體營收與獲利數字未見公司正式指引，相關成長判斷屬根據產線與產業趨勢推估。
Supply Chain
- 中鋼 2002 台灣上市鋼鐵龍頭，為冷軋、熱軋、鍍製鋼材產業的上游代表；是否為統一實直接供應商未在本次公開資料中逐筆確認，列為產業鏈上游關係。
- 中鴻 2014 台灣上市鋼品廠，產品包含熱軋、冷軋與鍍鋅鋼捲，與統一實馬口鐵底片、冷軋鋼捲業務屬上游或同供應鏈關係；直接交易關係未確認。
- JFE Steel Corporation 日本鋼鐵公司，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ資料稱統一實為國內唯一獲日本JFE鋼廠馬口鐵基板專業技術授權的廠商，屬技術與上游鋼鐵 know-how 關係。
- 遠東新 1402 台灣上市聚酯與PET材料大廠，PET樹脂與聚酯供應鏈為統一實PET瓶胚、瓶蓋、吹瓶與飲料包裝業務上游；直接供應關係未確認。
- 統一企業 1216 台灣上市食品飲料集團，為統一實最終母公司與核心集團客戶；統一實配合集團飲料與食品包裝需求，供應PET瓶蓋、瓶胚、包材與飲料充填服務。
- 統一企業中國控股有限公司 香港上市公司，非台股掛牌；統一實在中國大陸設有PET飲料包材與充填基地，供應統一企業中國相關飲料包裝與代工需求。
- 東鵬飲料 中國A股上市飲料公司，非台股掛牌；市場報導提及為統一實中國業務新增外部客戶之一，主要關聯為飲料包裝或充填需求。
- 紅牛能量飲料相關業者 非台股掛牌或品牌授權體系；市場報導提及為統一實新增外部客戶之一，個別交易金額未確認。
Competitors
- 宏全國際 9939 台灣上市公司，主要從事飲料包材、瓶蓋、標籤、PET瓶胚與代工充填，與統一實飲料包裝及充填業務直接重疊。
- 永裕 1323 台灣上市塑膠包材公司，於塑膠容器與包裝材料市場與統一實PET相關包裝部分重疊，但產品組合不完全相同。
- 寶山鋼鐵股份有限公司 中國上海上市鋼鐵公司，非台股掛牌；在中國馬口鐵、冷軋與鍍錫鋼品市場具規模，為統一實中國鐵產品業務的重要競爭對手之一。
- JFE Steel Corporation 日本鋼鐵公司，非台股掛牌；在高階鋼材、馬口鐵與冷軋鋼品領域具競爭力，同時也是統一實技術來源之一，兼具競合關係。
- Toyo Seikan Group Holdings 日本上市包裝容器集團，非台股掛牌；在金屬罐、飲料罐與包裝容器領域具國際競爭力，屬海外同業。
Sources（15）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.