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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 9935 慶豐富. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=9935
9935
steady quality, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is 慶豐富 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 64th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.4%.
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Valuation is low.PE is in the 13th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 20th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 13.8% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -7% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 元大-員林 has accumulated 751 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
- Main distributor 康和-嘉義 peaked at 242 lots, has sold 66%, 82 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.54pp, mid holders +3, retail -1.66pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -854 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 元大-員林 +751
- 華南永昌-台中 +610
- 凱基-竹北 +359
- 元大-台中中港 +340
- 台新-台中 +272
- 台灣摩根士丹利 +249
Distributing
- 康和-嘉義 82 left
- 富邦-基隆 35 left
- 美林 35 left
- 國票-台南 51 left
- 群益金鼎-彰化 60 left
- 元大-板橋 16 left
Desks
- 國泰-敦南 -340
- 臺銀-金山 -301
- 元大-敦化 -253
- 元富-新莊 -251
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 You are here | 298 | +16.9% | -11.3% | 24.5% | -3.6% |
| 20-40 | 531 | +20.4% | +21.2% | 65% | -4.2% |
| 40-60 | 353 | -3.1% | -3% | 42.2% | -19.2% |
| 60-80 | 123 | +22.7% | -23.6% | 43.9% | -15.4% |
| 80-100 | 327 | +6.7% | +5.8% | 59% | -19.1% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 11.83, at the 19.9th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 558 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 3.7%, win rate 30.3%, lagged the market by 12.8%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +14.57%, win rate 55%, beating the market by +9.8 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
59 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.77%, win rate 51.7%, beating the market by +1.94 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
42 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.81%, win rate 39%, beating the market by -4.67 pts on average.
What does 慶豐富 do? Company profile
Overview
慶豐富實業股份有限公司，股票代號9935，為臺灣證券交易所上市普通股，非ETF/ETN/特別股/權證。公司成立於1977-03-09，1999-02-01上櫃，2000-09-11轉上市；總部位於彰化縣福興鄉沿海路四段373號。董事長為許閔琁，總經理兼發言人為許竣然。實收資本額約新台幣1,778,389,260元，已發行普通股177,838,926股。依公司113年度年報，截至2025-03-31，集團員工約1,882人，本公司員工約522人。公司網站揭露之主要股東名單（113年3月30日）包含許閔琁、洪誼靜、許培祥、許竣然、中國信託商業銀行受託保管保富投資顧問（香港）有限公司投資專戶、豪堂投資、立邦興投資、陳淑芬、德比投資、吉晟投資等。
Business
公司主要生產塑膠類百葉窗、紡織類窗簾、寢具與家飾用品及相關零配件，產品包括塑膠百葉窗、鋁片百葉窗、仿木百葉窗、立式/橫式百葉窗、羅馬簾、蜂巢簾、百摺簾、捲簾、毛毯與不織布面料等。113年度主要產品營收比重為窗簾79.67%、家飾19.36%、其他0.97%。113年度銷售地區比重為美洲80.38%、歐洲14.88%、內銷2.38%、其他2.36%，顯示北美為核心市場。商業模式以外銷ODM/通路代工為基礎，並逐步往通路服務、B2B2C、電商客製化與一站式窗飾服務延伸。年報指出公司已打入IKEA、Lowe’s等國際大型家居連鎖通路，MoneyDJ另整理公司法說資料指出主要客戶包含Lowe’s、Walmart、IKEA、PHH、Amazon、Home Depot等；公司年報正式揭露的前十大銷貨客戶以A/B/C匿名列示，113年前三大客戶占銷貨淨額分別約35.42%、21.70%、13.55%。核心終端應用為居家裝潢、DIY窗飾、節能隔熱、安全無拉繩窗簾、智慧家居窗簾與家飾用品。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年展望以安全、智慧、永續三條主軸為核心。成長動能包括：一、美國自2024年6月起全面要求窗簾產品採無拉繩設計，帶動無拉繩百葉窗、無拉羅馬簾、無拉蜂巢簾等安全窗簾需求；二、智慧家居滲透率提升，推升電動窗簾、智能家居窗簾與控制APP產品開發；三、北美電商與客製化窗飾需求增加，公司積極從線下大型通路延伸至線上電商接單，並發展B2B2C服務；四、永續材料與低碳產品成為通路商採購要求，公司已推出回收材料蜂巢簾及以回收寶特瓶製成之低碳環保百葉窗，並持續開發可替代PVC塑膠原料的環保窗簾；五、多元產地與海外產能配置可降低單一產地、關稅與交期風險。公司113年報提到未來會視客戶需求增加海外生產據點或擴充產能，並投資既有產能效率、廠房與機器設備。主要風險包括北美銷售集中、北美房市與消費景氣循環、匯率波動（外銷多以美元報價）、利率與資金成本、塑化/紡織原料成本波動、中國與印度等低成本廠商價格競爭、主要客戶集中、產品安全責任與召回風險，以及美國貿易政策與關稅變動。2026至2028年的具體營收與獲利數字未見公司公開可靠指引，本段對2026至2028的延伸屬產業趨勢推估。
Supply Chain
- 國內塑膠粉、塑膠粒、安定劑、碳酸鈣等塑化原料供應商 年報說明窗簾主要原料為塑膠粉、塑膠粒、安定劑及碳酸鈣等塑化原料，供應商為國內知名大廠並維持長期合作，但未揭露具名公司。
- 機能性布料與環保回收材料供應商 公司策略提到與供應商合作開發防火、隔熱、防水、防塵、防菌等機能性布料，並使用友善環境布料與回收材料；年報未揭露具名供應商。
- 生產設備與自動化設備供應商 公司持續以自動化生產降低工時，並新增生產機器設備以提升品質與效率；年報未揭露具名設備供應商。
- IKEA 國際大型家居連鎖通路，非台股掛牌；年報明確列為已打入之客戶/通路，亦提到採用IKEA I-way機制並接受客戶稽核。
- Lowe’s 美國上市大型家居修繕零售商，非台股掛牌；年報列為已打入之國際大型家居連鎖通路。
- Walmart 美國上市大型零售商，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ依公司法說資料列為主要客戶，年報亦在產業段落提及Walmart等大型通路商配合窗簾安全政策。
- Amazon 美國上市電商平台，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ依公司法說資料列為主要客戶，公司策略亦強調線上電商與B2B2C。
- Home Depot 美國上市家居修繕零售商，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ依公司法說資料列為主要客戶。
- Wayfair 美國上市家居電商平台，非台股掛牌；公司年報提到近年積極拓展如Wayfair等電商平台。
Competitors
- 億豐綜合工業 8464 台股上市公司，英文Nien Made，為窗簾、百葉窗與客製化窗飾主要同業；慶豐富年報列Nien Made為北美窗簾市場主要競爭對手之一。
- Hunter Douglas 荷蘭/國際窗飾品牌與製造商，非台股掛牌；慶豐富年報列為主要競爭對手之一。
- Springs Window Fashions 美國窗飾製造商，非台股掛牌；慶豐富年報列為主要競爭對手之一。
- 隆美窗簾 台灣窗簾通路/品牌，未查得台股上市櫃掛牌；MoneyDJ列為國內同業。
- 詩肯 6195 台股上市櫃家具/居家通路公司，與慶豐富非完全同產品線，但MoneyDJ列為國內居家/窗飾相關同業。
- 無印良品 日本零售品牌，非台股掛牌；在居家用品與窗飾零售端具競爭關係。
Sources（9）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.