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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 00864B 中信美國公債0-1. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=00864B

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00864B

中信美國公債0-1 Other Securities As of 2026-07-29 Updated daily after market close

2 signals active.

2 active signals
252d high 外資連買5日
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估值 50品質 50成長 50動能 66籌碼 98

Is 中信美國公債0-1 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • 外資近期偏買。外資近 20 日買賣超約佔成交量 28.6%（買超）。

Chip flow

Bearish -0.49
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 國泰-敦南 holds 1,189 lots
  • sellers have 2,409 lots left, ~65 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -1% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 國泰-敦南 has accumulated 1,189 lots since the start (sold 18%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 10,319 lots, has sold 50%, 5,197 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -26.93pp, mid holders -3, retail +25.65pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -97 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
國泰-敦南台新證券元大-竹科(牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐永豐金-竹北玉山-台南
Distributing
凱基-台北元大-虎尾台新中國信託凱基-科園永豐金證券
Desks
own scale
凱基群益金鼎統一宏遠證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 國泰-敦南 +1,189
    sold 18%
  • 台新證券 +943
    sold 24%
  • 元大-竹科 +740
    sold 21%· still adding
  • (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 +674
    sold 6%
  • 永豐金-竹北 +611
    sold 11%
  • 玉山-台南 +501
    sold 7%· still adding

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 5,197 left
    sold 50%· paused recently
  • 元大-虎尾 554 left
    sold 51%· ~30 sessions to clear
  • 台新 700 left
    sold 33%· paused recently
  • 中國信託 483 left
    sold 40%· ~23 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-科園 313 left
    sold 45%· ~65 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金證券 253 left
    sold 27%· paused recently

Desks

  • 凱基 -21,211
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎 -4,055
    unclassified
  • 統一 -947
    unclassified
  • 宏遠證券 -495
    unclassified
Still selling 2,409 lots ~65 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,211 absorbed / -1,278 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -5 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

目前正在發生的訊號

以下訊號在最近一筆資料中成立，附這檔股票自身歷史上每次出現後的前瞻報酬統計

股價創 252 日新高（突破日）

Active

還原股價首次站上過去 252 個交易日最高；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

12 historical occurrences (since 2022-03-28)
Average forward return after 股價創 252 日新高（突破日）。20-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 11, Median +0.56%, Excess -1.81%, Beat mkt rate 36.4%；60-day: Win 54.5%, Sample 11, Median +2.32%, Excess -4.72%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%；120-day: Win 60%, Sample 10, Median +2.28%, Excess -6.28%, Beat mkt rate 30%

120 days after: historical avg -0.27%

20-day +0.42%
60-day +0.18%
120-day -0.27%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
63.6%
54.5%
60%
Sample
11
11
10
Median
+0.56%
+2.32%
+2.28%
Excess
-1.81%
-4.72%
-6.28%
Beat mkt rate
36.4%
54.5%
30%

Over 10 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 0.27%, lagged the market by 6.28 pts; win rate 60%.

外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日

Active · now 6%

外資（不含自營商）買賣超連續 5 日為正，事件日為第 5 日；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

14 historical occurrences (since 2024-01-05)
Average forward return after 外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日。20-day: Win 64.3%, Sample 14, Median +0.82%, Excess -4.5%, Beat mkt rate 21.4%；60-day: Win 76.9%, Sample 13, Median +2.59%, Excess -13.89%, Beat mkt rate 23.1%；120-day: Win 90.9%, Sample 11, Median +4.87%, Excess -23.91%, Beat mkt rate 27.3%

120 days after: historical avg +4.4%

20-day +0.19%
60-day +1.56%
120-day +4.4%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
64.3%
76.9%
90.9%
Sample
14
13
11
Median
+0.82%
+2.59%
+4.87%
Excess
-4.5%
-13.89%
-23.91%
Beat mkt rate
21.4%
23.1%
27.3%

Over 11 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.4%, lagged the market by 23.91 pts; win rate 90.9%.

這個訊號在全市場是否站得住腳

「月營收年增率 ≥ 20%」過去 243 個月，每月平均約 404 檔個股符合條件；這些個股之後 60 個交易日的還原股價報酬，等權平均為 6.99%，平均贏過大盤 2.32 個百分點，在 64.2% 的月份中跑贏發行量加權股價報酬指數。

每月對全市場符合訊號的股票取等權平均前瞻 60 日還原報酬，再對月份平均；超額相對發行量加權股價報酬指數

What does 中信美國公債0-1 do? Company profile

債券型ETF(海外政府公債/超短天期美國公債) 臺灣證券櫃檯買賣中心(櫃買中心/上櫃,TPEx;交易代號00864B.TWO)

Overview

本標的為「中國信託美國政府0至1年期債券ETF基金」,簡稱「中信美國公債0-1」,證券代號00864B,為一檔在台灣櫃買中心掛牌的債券型ETF,並非營運公司。發行與經理機構為中國信託證券投資信託股份有限公司(中國信託投信,屬中國信託金控/CTBC集團)。基金成立日為2019年10月8日,掛牌交易日為2019年10月18日,以新臺幣計價。經理費約年0.10%,保管費約0.06%~0.08%(依規模級距),總費用率約0.18%;收益分配採季配息;風險報酬等級為RR2(屬相對低風險);基金經理人為蔡欣翰。基金規模約新臺幣47.37億元(約4,737百萬元,截至2026年6月16日),近一年年化標準差約4.04%。

Business

本ETF採被動式(指數化)管理,追蹤「ICE美國政府0至1年期債券指數」(ICE US Government 0-1 Year Bond Index),投資於美國政府發行、到期日約0至1年的超短天期公債(美國國庫券/短期公債),規定投資於標的指數成分債券之金額不低於本基金淨資產價值之70%。標的為美國政府債券,穆迪信用評等約Aa1,屬投資等級、高信評債券。商品定位為低波動、類現金/資金停泊工具,適合作為短期資金停泊與降低投組波動之配置。收益分配為季配息;2025年全年每受益權單位配發現金股利約1.12元,2026年截至第二季累計約1.12元(2026年第二次除息日約2026/5/19、每單位0.56元),年化配息率(殖利率)約2.48%(數值隨淨值與利率變動)。因以新臺幣計價且通常未完全避險,投資人實際報酬同時受美債價格與美元兌新臺幣匯率影響。

Outlook 2025–2028

本標的為被動追蹤超短天期美債之ETF,無企業營運成長動能,後續表現主要取決於美國利率與殖利率環境、以及美元兌新臺幣匯率:1)利率面——超短天期美債殖利率與美國聯準會政策利率高度連動,2024至2025年美國進入降息循環後,短債到期殖利率與本基金配息率有下行壓力,若2025至2028年利率維持相對高檔或降息趨緩,則短債票息收益仍具吸引力;反之降息加速將壓低再投資收益。2)定位面——因存續期間極短(約1年內),利率變動造成的價格波動小,主要作為低波動、抗震、停泊資金之工具,而非追求資本利得。3)匯率風險——新臺幣計價且多未避險,台幣升值將侵蝕以台幣計算之報酬,為主要風險之一。4)其他風險——規模與流動性、追蹤誤差、總費用、以及美國財政與信用情勢變化。以上為依公開資料與利率環境之分析推估,非保證,confidence 設為 medium。

Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

方法與限制

  • 所有報酬以還原股價（etl:adj_close）計算，已還原除權息與股票分割。
  • 超額報酬以發行量加權股價報酬指數（含息）為基準。
  • 估值位階與分位統計以「截至當天為止的自身歷史」滾動計算，不使用未來資訊。
  • 營收訊號的事件日對齊到公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到尚未公開的資訊。
  • 事件樣本之間日期可能重疊，統計僅描述歷史分布，樣本數較少時參考價值有限。

本頁內容為歷史資料統計與教育用途，不構成投資建議。投資一定有風險，過去績效不代表未來表現，交易前請自行評估並承擔風險。