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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1215 卜蜂. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1215
1215
steady quality, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is 卜蜂 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 56th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.1%.
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Valuation is low.PE is in the 16th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 43th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 8.9% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Distribution to retail — bearish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -23% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 合庫證券 has accumulated 3,982 lots since the start (sold 3%), now trimming.
- Main distributor 凱基 peaked at 2,983 lots, has sold 79%, 641 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -3.35pp, mid holders +1, retail +3.30pp — drifting down to retail.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,237 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 合庫證券 +3,982
- 香港上海匯豐 +2,009
- 國泰證券 +1,952
- 中國信託 +1,012
- 國泰-敦南 +595
- 大和國泰 +587
Distributing
- 凱基 641 left
- 永豐金證券 1,489 left
- 永豐金-板新 33 left
- 永豐金-大園 25 left
- 台新-宜蘭 49 left
- 第一金-彰化 29 left
Desks
- 元大證券 -4,785
- 摩根大通 -3,808
- 群益金鼎 -3,587
- 美商高盛 -3,335
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 626 | +54.2% | +68.6% | 86.1% | +47.4% |
| 20-40 | 361 | +40.6% | +22.4% | 92% | +20.5% |
| 40-60 You are here | 728 | +21.9% | +19.2% | 75.1% | +9.8% |
| 60-80 | 911 | +21.1% | +16.4% | 90.6% | -3.3% |
| 80-100 | 392 | +21% | +20.6% | 98.2% | +2.1% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 12.55, at the 43.1th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 397 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 4.7%, win rate 57.9%, lagged the market by 1.5%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
42 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.79%, win rate 59.5%, beating the market by +0.27 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.52%, win rate 60.9%, beating the market by +8.37 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
66 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.88%, win rate 69.2%, beating the market by +3.59 pts on average.
What does 卜蜂 do? Company profile
Overview
台灣卜蜂企業成立於1977年8月22日,1987年7月27日在台灣證券交易所上市,股票代號1215,屬食品工業類股。總公司設於台北市松江路八十七號十七樓。董事長為鄭武樾(食品界知名長青董座),總經理為許瑞通,發言人為特別助理劉明哲。資本額約新台幣29.48億元(2,947,900,980元),流通股數約2.95億股。公司隸屬泰國卜蜂集團(正大集團/Charoen Pokphand Group,1921年創立於曼谷)在台事業,泰國卜蜂相關公司間接持股約32.68%,為最大股東。主要生產據點橫跨台灣(台中、南投、高雄等地設有自動化飼料廠與電宰加工廠,南投廠為亞洲最大肉雞電宰廠之一),並持續擴建桃園龜山肉品分切廠、雲林斗六AI自動化飼料廠等。員工人數官方公開資料未明確揭示,故留空。
Business
卜蜂為台灣垂直整合的農畜食品大廠,業務涵蓋從飼料、養殖(肉雞、種雞、養豬)、電宰屠宰到肉品分切與加工調理食品的完整產業鏈。營收結構(近年約2024–2025年)約為:農畜牧肉品(生鮮雞肉、豬肉等)約40.0%、飼料及加工性熟料約37.1%、各種消費食品(雞肉鬆、人蔘雞、火腿、雞塊、雞排、炸雞、雞酥棒、烤雞、醃漬肉品等調理/即食食品)約22.9%。商業模式採「飼料—養殖—電宰—加工—品牌通路」一條龍整合,並發展自有品牌與加值型(高附加價值)肉品。下游通路包含量販店、超市、超商、餐飲速食與團膳客戶,以及自有品牌零售。
Outlook 2025–2028
成長動能:1) 飼料原物料(玉米、黃豆粕等)價格趨穩,毛利率明顯改善——2025年第一季EPS約2.38元、年增約90%,毛利率突破21%,獲利創歷史新高;2025年全年營收約284.31億元、年增約1.7%,管理層(董事長鄭武樾)表示全年獲利可望再創新高、全年EPS有望突破10元(屬管理層預期,非確定值)。2) 擴產佈局:桃園龜山肉品分切廠於2025年下半年起營運,預估年貢獻營收約20–30億元;雲林斗六AI自動化飼料廠月產量約1萬餘噸,未來可望提升至每月約1.5萬噸,推升加值型肉品與飼料產能。3) 產業趨勢:消費型態轉向即食/調理加工食品、國內畜禽產業結構優化,有利產品組合升級。每年維持約20億元資本支出用於購地、設備與養殖場擴充。潛在風險與挑戰:飼料原料(進口玉米、黃豆)國際價格與匯率波動、禽流感/非洲豬瘟等動物疫病、食品安全與環保法規、原物料與通膨成本壓力、國內肉品市場競爭。
Supply Chain
- 進口飼料原料供應商(玉米、黃豆粕/大豆、小麥等穀物) 上游原料;多為國際穀物貿易商與大宗物資進口商,非單一台股掛牌公司
- 大統益 1232 上游;黃豆加工(黃豆粕/油粕)供應,為飼料蛋白原料來源之一
- 動物用藥/疫苗及添加劑供應商 上游;養殖用疫苗、添加劑等,多為未上市或國際廠商
- 種雞/種豬與包裝、設備供應商 上游;種源、電宰與分切設備、包材等
- 量販/超市/超商通路(如全聯、家樂福、便利商店等) 下游;生鮮肉品與調理/即食食品零售通路;個別通路上市狀態不一,故stock_id留null
- 統一超商 2912 下游;超商通路販售即食/調理食品(示意性通路關係)
- 餐飲、速食連鎖與團膳客戶 下游;雞肉、肉品原料供應予餐飲速食與團膳業者,多為未上市或外商
- 一般消費者 下游;自有品牌調理食品最終消費端
Competitors
- 大成(大成長城) 1210 最主要競爭對手;同為飼料—養殖—肉品—食品垂直整合大廠
- 統一企業 1216 食品龍頭;部分加工食品與通路重疊,規模綜合競爭
- 福壽實業 1219 飼料與油脂、畜牧相關業務同業
- 聯華實業(聯華食/聯華) 1229 食品加工同業(部分品項競爭)
- 卜蜂越南/泰國CP關係企業及其他禽畜肉品業者 部分為集團關聯或未在台股掛牌之區域同業
Sources（9）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.