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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1218 泰山. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1218
1218
steady quality, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is 泰山 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 50th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.2%.
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Valuation is low.PE is in the 12th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 8th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -5.4% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -3% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 美林 has accumulated 1,439 lots since the start (sold 25%), now trimming.
- Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 1,638 lots, has sold 67%, 543 left, ~6 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.07pp, mid holders +2, retail +0.09pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -805 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 美林 +1,439
- 美商高盛 +1,224
- 玉山-高雄 +980
- 元大-善化 +592
- 台新-九如 +354
- 元大-成功 +279
Distributing
- 台灣摩根士丹利 543 left
- 港商野村 527 left
- 新加坡商瑞銀 489 left
- 台新-緯城 220 left
- 富邦-台北 128 left
- 富邦-建國 69 left
Desks
- 元富-新莊 -1,514
- (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 -1,125
- 第一金-台南 -1,083
- 台新-城東 -751
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 You are here | 972 | +8.4% | +5.9% | 62.2% | -19.2% |
| 20-40 | 528 | +21.8% | +21.2% | 95.3% | +1.5% |
| 40-60 | 321 | +6.7% | +8.5% | 71.3% | +2.3% |
| 60-80 | 268 | -2.8% | +1.4% | 51.5% | -20.3% |
| 80-100 | 256 | +13.6% | +8.8% | 69.1% | +7.2% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 11.66, at the 7.8th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 817 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 2.3%, win rate 53.5%, lagged the market by 8.9%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
21 times historically; 60-day forward avg -4.36%, win rate 33.3%, beating the market by -5.62 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.27%, win rate 57.1%, beating the market by +2.37 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
71 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.4%, win rate 51.4%, beating the market by -3.18 pts on average.
What does 泰山 do? Company profile
Overview
泰山企業為台灣老牌食品飲料集團，前身為1950年成立的益裕製油廠，1960年成立泰山油脂，由詹玉柱四兄弟創辦，以黃豆加工製成食用油與豆餅起家，逐步擴展為食品、飲料、油脂集團。1989年11月11日於台灣證券交易所掛牌上市，股票代號1218。總部設於彰化縣田中鎮興工路6號，並於台北市中正區忠孝西路一段50號設總管理處。實收資本額約新台幣49.99億元（4,999,990,380元）。歷任董事長包含創辦人詹玉柱、詹仁道、詹岳霖、詹景超等詹氏家族成員。2016年起詹氏家族爆發經營權內訌，2022年公司派處分全家便利商店持股引發爭議，2023年由持股逾三成的龍邦集團（龍邦國際興業）取得過半經營權，推選劉偉龍出任董事長；2024年董事再度全面改選後，詹家體系大幅退出、龍邦體系主導董事會。現任董事長為劉偉龍（龍邦國際興業代表人），總經理為沈怡君。主要股東為龍邦集團及其關係企業。
Business
泰山以三大事業為核心：（1）油脂事業——食用油脂之精製與批發零售，產品涵蓋黃豆油（大豆沙拉油）、棕櫚油、芥花油、葵花油、橄欖油等散裝及桶裝油品，並進口美國特選黃豆及加拿大非基改黃豆供應食品加工原料，另有餐飲服務（B2B油品）通路；（2）飲料事業——PET瓶裝飲料、純水、茶飲、即飲咖啡等；（3）即食食品事業——八寶粥、仙草蜜、甜湯等罐裝即食點心，泰山與愛之味為國內即食甜罐市場兩大品牌。通路涵蓋經銷商、雜糧行、食品材料行、量販超市、便利商店及自營電商（泰山線上購）。早期透過1999年起投資全家便利商店（5903）取得長期業外股利收益，惟2022年12月公司派以鉅額交易處分約19%全家持股（交易金額約新台幣80.97億元、處分利益約54.5億元，由國泰蔡宏圖家族的萬寶開發等接手），泰山自此退出全家、資源重新聚焦油脂與飲料本業。海外布局包含泰山（漳州）食品有限公司及泰山（泰國）食品有限公司。
Outlook 2025–2028
處分全家後，泰山策略上回歸油脂與飲料本業，降低通路經營的資本壓力與策略分心。2025年全年合併營收約101.17億元，2025年12月合併營收年增約14.31%，扭轉先前數月疲弱，顯示本業需求回溫並具成長彈性。公司持續開發新產品以推升油品與飲品市占率，並順應健康養生趨勢（如推出無加糖八寶粥、健康訴求油品）；管理層期望消費食品、食糧事業及國際布局帶動營收與獲利達雙位數成長，並維持穩定高現金股利（殖利率一度約7%以上、本益比約12倍、股價淨值比一度低於1倍，估值相對偏低提供股價支撐）。風險與挑戰：（1）失去全家穩定股權收益後，業外貢獻大減，本業獲利波動加大（2025年單季EPS偏低、近四季EPS約1.45元）；（2）黃豆、棕櫚油等大宗原物料價格與匯率波動牽動油脂毛利；（3）八寶粥、甜湯、飲料等內需市場競爭激烈且成長有限；（4）經營權變動後仍有處分全家股權等相關民事訴訟與司法案件餘波，治理面尚待穩定。2025至2028年觀察重點為油脂與飲料營收成長率、毛利率改善幅度及現金股利發放穩定度。
Supply Chain
- 進口黃豆／大豆（美國特選黃豆、加拿大非基改黃豆） 油脂與食品加工核心原料，屬國際大宗物資進口，供應商多為國際穀物貿易商，非台股掛牌
- 棕櫚油及其他植物油原料（東南亞進口） 食用油精製原料，多自馬來西亞、印尼等地進口，非台股掛牌（推估）
- 砂糖等糖類原料 八寶粥、甜湯、飲料之甜味原料，部分由台糖等供應，台糖為國營未上市（推估）
- 包裝材料供應商（PET瓶胚、馬口鐵罐、紙盒、瓶蓋） 飲料與罐裝即食食品之包材供應，具體供應商未公開，屬推估
- 統一超商（7-ELEVEN） 2912 便利商店通路，銷售飲料、八寶粥等即食商品
- 全家便利商店 5903 便利商店通路客戶（泰山已於2022年出清其股權，但仍為零售鋪貨通路之一）
- 量販與超市通路（全聯、家樂福、大潤發等） 主要零售鋪貨通路，全聯、家樂福台灣等多未在台股單獨掛牌
- 餐飲業者與食品加工廠（B2B 食用油與原料） 散裝油品與黃豆原料之下游使用者，分散且多未上市
- 電商平台（如富邦媒 momo、PChome 及自營泰山線上購） 8454 線上零售通路，富邦媒（momo）為台股上市，其餘自營或未單獨掛牌
Competitors
Sources（15）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.