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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1231 聯華食. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1231
1231
steady quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 聯華食 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 61th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.0%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 44th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 73th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.7% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -8% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 元大-桃興 has accumulated 380 lots since the start (sold 2%), now trimming.
- Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 141 lots, has sold 59%, 58 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.59pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.47pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -905 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 元大-桃興 +380
- 港商野村 +193
- 華南永昌-中正 +175
- 美林 +171
- 國票-中正 +160
- 元大-斗信 +140
Distributing
- 台灣摩根士丹利 58 left
- 花旗環球 72 left
- 富邦-敦南 20 left
- 新加坡商瑞銀 32 left
- 富邦-竹北 37 left
- 富邦-台北 21 left
Desks
- 元大-台北 -646
- 摩根大通 -454
- 元大-大益 -326
- 美商高盛 -275
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 305 | +20.1% | +18.9% | 100% | +0.5% |
| 20-40 | 323 | +27% | +23.1% | 100% | +11% |
| 40-60 | 521 | +31.2% | +18.7% | 98.1% | +16.1% |
| 60-80 You are here | 502 | +21.5% | +12.6% | 85.9% | +3.6% |
| 80-100 | 1392 | +16.4% | +19.4% | 62.4% | +0.5% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 19.77, at the 72.7th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 561 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 7.2%, win rate 67.4%, lagged the market by 6.4%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
45 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.57%, win rate 75.6%, beating the market by +6.09 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
39 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.04%, win rate 60.5%, beating the market by +2.87 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
63 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.64%, win rate 69.8%, beating the market by -0.17 pts on average.
What does 聯華食 do? Company profile
Overview
1231 對應證券為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，中文簡稱聯華食，ISIN 為 TW0001231009，掛牌日為 1995-11-02。公司全名為聯華食品工業股份有限公司，成立於 1970-07-07，總部／公司地址為台北市大同區迪化街一段148號，主要經營業務為食品。依 2026 年可查資料，董事長為李開源，總經理以 Yahoo 股市與玩股網揭露之扶兆民為準；部分第三方頁面仍列林家齊，故管理階層資料需以公開資訊觀測站最新公告再確認。股本約新台幣 2,984,544,750 元，已發行普通股約 298,454,475 股。2024 年底員工人數為 2,449 人。主要股東／董監大股東包括鑫德投資有限公司、國衡投資有限公司、李開源及其他李氏家族與投資公司；可查資料顯示 2026/05 董監經理人持股明細中李開源約 22,082 千股、7.40%，鉅亨網資料列鑫德投資有限公司與國衡投資有限公司為前列大股東。2024 年合併營收 12,201,941 千元，歸屬母公司業主淨利 1,145,728 千元，EPS 4.22 元；2025 年全年營收約 12,867,131 千元，年增 5.45%；2026 年 5 月累計營收約 53.43 億元，累計年增約 3.9%。
Business
聯華食品為台灣休閒食品、堅果、海苔、沖調食品與鮮食製造大廠，營收主要分為休閒事業部與鮮食事業部。2024 年營收比重約為休閒類 48%、鮮食類 52%；另一資料亦列鮮食約 51.8%、休閒約 48.2%。休閒食品為自有品牌模式，核心品牌與產品包括元本山海苔、可樂果豌豆酥、卡迪那洋芋片與薯條、寶咔咔、滿天星、萬歲牌堅果與堅果飲、Chef HOKA 荷卡廚坊、KgCheck 等；鮮食事業則以代工模式供應便利商店與大型客戶，包括便當、飯糰、壽司手卷、三明治、調理麵包、涼麵、炒麵、燴飯、湯麵、鍋物等 4°C 與 18°C 鮮食產品。2024 年生產量為休閒食品約 13,047 千箱、鮮食產品約 183,878 千件，銷售量為休閒食品約 13,541.39 千箱、鮮食產品約 185,401.09 千件。銷售區域以台灣為主，2024 年台灣約 98%、外銷約 2%；實體通路涵蓋大型量販店、便利超商、連鎖超市、經銷商及小百貨，全台銷售點約 16,693 處，其中超商通路約 13,872 家，並經營網路與跨境電商。市占率資料顯示堅果類約 65%、海苔類約 55%、休閒食品類約 20%、沖調類約 10%。重要原料包括海苔、開心果、杏仁果、腰果、豌豆仁、粉類、馬鈴薯、地瓜等；主要生產據點包括桃園、嘉義、基隆、彰化、中壢等廠。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 至 2028 年展望偏向穩健成長但需留意原物料、通路集中與工安風險。成長動能方面，2025 年前 11 月營收 115.6 億元、年增 7%，2025 年全年營收 128.67 億元、年增 5.45%，主因鮮食事業持續成長及休閒食品同步擴張；截至 2025 年第三季，公司表示休閒事業部年增約 6.5%、鮮食事業年增超過一成，本業表現仍較 2024 年同期成長。2026 年 5 月累計營收年增約 3.9%，顯示高基期下仍維持小幅成長。產能與投資方面，休閒食品觀音新廠預計 2026 年底完成，早期報導曾提及 2026 年取得執照投產時程；基隆將建構新一代鮮食廠，規劃 2026 年動工、2028 年有望取得執照投產，若如期完成，將支撐休閒食品及鮮食代工產能。產業趨勢方面，便利商店鮮食滲透率提高、即食／冷藏食品需求、健康化堅果與低鹽少油產品、電商與跨境通路、量販及超商集中採購，均有利具規模與食安能力的食品製造商。風險方面，鮮食代工對大型便利商店客戶依賴高，若客戶自建產能、轉單或議價，將影響營收與毛利；海苔、堅果、馬鈴薯、豌豆、油脂、包材、能源與匯率波動會影響成本；食品安全、冷鏈管理與工安事件對品牌及營運衝擊大；2024 年有火災事故理賠收入，2025 年無此一次性項目，業外波動可能使稅後淨利與本業成長不同步；外銷占比仍低，海外擴張成效需時間驗證。
Supply Chain
- 未公開具名之國內外海苔供應商 供應元本山海苔與海苔加工產品所需原料；公司公開資料僅揭露海苔為重要原料，未查得穩定具名上市櫃供應商。
- 未公開具名之國內外堅果供應商 供應萬歲牌開心果、杏仁果、腰果、核桃、夏威夷果等原料；多屬進口農產品供應鏈，公開資料未揭露具名台股上市櫃供應商。
- 未公開具名之豌豆、粉類、馬鈴薯與地瓜供應商 供應可樂果、卡迪那薯條／洋芋片、鮮食與沖調產品所需農產與加工原料；公開資料僅列重要原料類別，未揭露具名供應商。
- 食品包材、冷鏈、物流與設備供應商 支援休閒食品包裝、鮮食冷鏈、工廠生產與配送；未查得公司正式揭露之具名台股上市櫃核心供應商。
- 統一超商 2912 7-ELEVEN 為鮮食產品重要下游客戶；MoneyDJ 指出聯華食為 7-ELEVEN 鮮食產品主要供應商，供應便當、御飯糰、漢堡、三明治等。
- 好市多台灣／Costco 量販通路與海外銷售通路之一；非台股掛牌公司，市場資料提及聯華食產品在台灣好市多銷售並延伸至海外好市多部分市場。
- 大型量販店、便利超商、連鎖超市、經銷商與小百貨 休閒食品主要銷售通路；公司 ESG 資料揭露全台約 16,693 處販售點，其中超商通路約 13,872 家。
- 電商、跨境電商與中國代理商 線上及海外通路；公司 ESG 資料指出曾透過中國跨境電商建立知名度，並轉為直接進口至中國、由代理商做線上線下鋪貨。
Competitors
- 宏亞 1236 台股上市食品公司，MoneyDJ 列為休閒食品同業競爭者。
- 味全 1201 台股上市食品公司，MoneyDJ 列為休閒食品同業競爭者。
- 泰山 1218 台股上市食品公司，MoneyDJ 列為休閒食品同業競爭者。
- 愛之味 1217 台股上市食品公司，MoneyDJ 列為休閒食品同業競爭者。
- 旺旺中國 香港上市食品與休閒食品公司，非台股上市櫃；MoneyDJ 列為競爭者。
- 康師傅控股 香港上市食品與方便食品公司，非台股上市櫃；MoneyDJ 列為競爭者。
- 統一企業 1216 台股上市大型食品公司，雖未在 MoneyDJ 該條目競爭者清單中直接列示，但在食品、鮮食、便利商店供應鏈與品牌食品市場具競合關係。
- 佳格 1227 台股上市食品公司，StockFeel 同業清單列為其他食品類競爭對手。
- 味丹 台股上市食品公司，StockFeel 同業清單列為其他食品類競爭對手。
Sources（15）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.