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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1323 永裕. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1323
1323
steady quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 永裕 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 43th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.3%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 66th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 97th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 7.0% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +6% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 元大-台南 has accumulated 446 lots since the start (sold 1%), still adding.
- Main distributor 華南永昌-台南 peaked at 77 lots, has sold 64%, 28 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.69pp, mid holders +0, retail -1.41pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -99 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 元大-台南 +446
- 凱基-台南 +285
- 元大-小港 +137
- 致和-崇德 +84
- 永豐金證券 +78
- 元大-北三重 +76
Distributing
- 華南永昌-台南 28 left
- 臺銀 29 left
- 統一-屏東 35 left
- 玉山-左營 11 left
- 台新-左楠 9 left
- 國泰-敦南 10 left
Desks
- 永豐金-台南 -657
- 華南永昌-豐原 -204
- 元富-成功 -138
- (牛牛牛)亞-網路 -131
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 423 | +12.2% | +9.2% | 74.9% | -30.6% |
| 20-40 | 495 | +16.1% | +8% | 94.9% | -3.9% |
| 40-60 | 588 | +9% | +3.1% | 61.6% | -1.2% |
| 60-80 | 744 | 0% | -0.5% | 47.4% | -0.3% |
| 80-100 You are here | 790 | -10.6% | -6.5% | 9.4% | -30.4% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 35.36, at the 96.7th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 644 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 0.2%, win rate 35.6%, lagged the market by 3.3%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.99%, win rate 36%, beating the market by +2.11 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +10.51%, win rate 76.2%, beating the market by +8.58 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
59 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.43%, win rate 56.1%, beating the market by -3.54 pts on average.
What does 永裕 do? Company profile
Overview
永裕塑膠工業成立於1973年4月2日,2000年9月11日於台灣證券交易所掛牌上市,屬塑膠工業類股。總部位於台南市仁德區勝利路88號,公司官網 http://www.yonyu.com.tw。董事長兼總經理為王威程,發言人郭錦添、代理發言人蔡崇誠。資本額約新台幣9.13億元(912,745,540元),已發行普通股約9,127萬股(91,274,554股)。公司為國內最大的日用化學品(日化品)塑膠容器生產商,國內市佔率約五成。生產據點包括台灣台南仁德、中國上海與浙江(嘉善縣新廠於2024下半年投產)。100%轉投資子公司包括威瑪精密化學(化妝品充填代工)及新永裕應用科技材料(碳纖維複合材料、鋰電池負極材料之研發生產)。近年因產業景氣與外銷需求疲弱,股價約落在19~26元區間,市值約18~19億元等級。
Business
永裕主要從事各式塑膠容器與包材之設計、開發與量產,垂直整合產品設計、原料調配(染色／色母)、模具開發與射出／吹瓶／軟管一貫化製程。依2024年資料,營收結構約為:塑膠製瓶39%(化妝品、家庭用品、食品、藥品、油品等容器)、射出製品23%(蓋類等包材)、束帶製品16%(電子、電器、汽車配線固定用紮線帶)、軟管製品14%(化妝保養軟管)、其他製品約8%。主要原物料為PE粒、PP粒、尼龍粒及各式添加助劑。銷售區域分散,2024年約為中國大陸28%、台灣26%、日本24%、歐美16%、其他6%,外銷比重約六成五。商業模式以B2B代工／ODM容器供應為主,客戶涵蓋國際與兩岸日化、美妝、清潔、食品生技與光學品牌,主要客戶包含萊雅(L'Oréal)、資生堂、寶僑(P&G)、嬌生(J&J)、花王、3M、曼秀雷敦、台塑生醫、百雀羚、伽藍、盛香堂,以及隱形眼鏡廠永勝光學(海昌)等。財務面,2024年合併營收約26.46億元、稅後淨利約2.35億元、EPS約2.58元;2025年因景氣下行營收降至約20.20億元、EPS約0.26元,擬配發現金股利0.9元(以上財務數字引自媒體與財經網站,非取自公司正式財報原文)。
Outlook 2025–2028
成長動能:(1)新增浙江嘉善廠2024下半年投產,擴大中國內需市場日化容器產能,搭配上海廠形成大陸雙廠布局;(2)子公司新永裕應用科技材料切入碳纖維複合材料與鋰電池負極材料,為傳統塑膠包材以外的第二成長曲線,但目前營收貢獻仍小、屬中長期布局;(3)威瑪精密化學提供化妝品充填一條龍服務,提升附加價值與毛利。產業趨勢:全球美妝、個人清潔與居家日用品包材需求長期穩健,客戶對環保(可回收單一材質、減塑、PCR再生料)與品牌差異化包裝的要求提高,有利具設計與一貫化製造能力的供應商。潛在風險與挑戰:(1)外銷比重高(約65%),易受日圓等匯率長期貶值、中國經濟與終端消費疲弱、客戶下單保守影響——2025年Q2營收一度創近64季新低、年減逾三成;(2)原料PE／PP／尼龍價格與油價連動,成本波動侵蝕毛利;(3)中國本土包材廠(如通產麗星)規模大、價格競爭激烈;(4)新材料(負極、碳纖維)事業需時間驗證量產與獲利。整體2025~2028展望偏向「基期偏低、待景氣回升與新廠／新材料放量帶動回穩」,確定性中等。
Supply Chain
- 台塑(台灣塑膠) 1301 PE／PP等塑膠原料粒之代表性供應來源(公司未揭露實際採購對象,屬產業合理推估)
- 台聚 1304 聚乙烯(PE)原料代表性供應商(推估)
- 台化(台灣化纖) 1326 PP、尼龍等原料代表性供應商(推估)
- 集盛 1455 尼龍粒(nylon)原料代表性供應商(推估)
- 色母／添加助劑及塑膠機械、模具供應商 色母粒、助劑與射出／吹瓶設備供應,多為未上市中小型化工及機械廠
- 萊雅 L'Oréal 化妝品品牌客戶(法國上市)
- 資生堂 Shiseido 化妝保養品牌客戶(日本上市)
- 寶僑 P&G 日用清潔／個人護理品牌客戶(美國上市)
- 嬌生 Johnson & Johnson 個人護理／醫療日用客戶(美國上市)
- 花王 Kao 日用清潔品牌客戶(日本上市)
- 3M 日用／工業消費品客戶(美國上市)
- 曼秀雷敦 Mentholatum 護膚／藥用容器客戶(日本樂敦製藥旗下,未單獨上市)
- 台塑生醫 生技保養品客戶(台塑集團旗下,未單獨掛牌)
- 永勝光學(海昌隱形眼鏡) 隱形眼鏡相關容器客戶(金可國際／寶島科旗下,本身未單獨上市)
Competitors
- 通產麗星 中國化妝品塑膠包裝龍頭,深圳上市(代號002243.SZ),為永裕在中國市場主要對手,規模約為永裕1.5倍
- 錦盛新材 中國化妝品塑膠包裝廠,中國A股上市(非台股)
- 嘉亨家化 中國日化包裝／代工廠,中國A股上市(非台股)
- 力合科創 中國上市企業(非台股),被列為同業參考對手
- 竹本容器 Takemoto Yohki 日本塑膠容器大廠,日本上市(非台股)
- 台灣同業包材廠 台灣本土同業多為未上市中小型塑膠容器廠,缺乏直接可比之上市對手;主要競爭對手集中於中國與日本
Sources（11）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.