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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1474 弘裕. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1474
1474
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 弘裕 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 26th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.5%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 71th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 91th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.4% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 凱基-敦北 has accumulated 784 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 兆豐-員林 peaked at 87 lots, has sold 29%, 62 left, ~25 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.40pp, mid holders -2, retail -0.35pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -30 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 凱基-敦北 +784
- 統一-平鎮 +727
- 富邦-和美 +583
- 元大-台中 +206
- 國泰-敦南 +192
- 富邦-七賢 +160
Distributing
- 兆豐-員林 62 left
- 國票證券 18 left
- 富邦-苗栗 8 left
- 新光-高雄 15 left
- 群益金鼎-東大 9 left
- 兆豐-埔墘 11 left
Desks
- 兆豐-北高雄 -443
- 富邦-南員林 -405
- (牛牛牛)亞-網路 -270
- 群益金鼎-敦南 -201
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 368 | -7.7% | -14.1% | 25% | -11.7% |
| 20-40 | 965 | +5.4% | +5.5% | 59.7% | -6.4% |
| 40-60 | 454 | +11.2% | +11.3% | 85.7% | -15% |
| 60-80 | 378 | +16.2% | +12.6% | 72% | -8.7% |
| 80-100 You are here | 356 | +15% | +13.5% | 69.9% | -20% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 42.5, at the 91.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 365 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 5.7%, win rate 47.7%, lagged the market by 11.4%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
22 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.63%, win rate 68.2%, beating the market by +1.91 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
47 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.44%, win rate 43.2%, beating the market by -0.53 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
52 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.26%, win rate 48%, beating the market by -2.55 pts on average.
What does 弘裕 do? Company profile
Overview
1474 對應證券為弘裕企業股份有限公司普通股，簡稱弘裕，英文名 HONMYUE ENTERPRISE CO., LTD.，屬台灣證券交易所上市公司。公司創立於1970年9月4日，1999年上櫃，2000年上市；總部位於彰化縣伸港鄉全興工業區工西一路60號。Yahoo 股市資料時間2026/01/15顯示董事長為葉博宇、總經理為郭正沛、發言人為徐為芳、股本新台幣1,298,969,690元、已發行普通股129,896,969股、董監持股比例18.67%。公司2025/11/4法說會簡報列示資本額約新台幣12.98億元，集團據點包含台灣彰化總部與伸港廠、和美廠、全興廠，台北辦事處，裕展新創股份有限公司（染整），中國大陸弘裕紡織（浙江）有限公司、九江德裕紡織科技有限公司、九江弘治紡織科技有限公司，以及越南大豪紡織公司轉投資。員工規模方面，台灣公司網／台灣標案網資料來源日期11401列示員工數450人；2024永續報告書片段顯示2024年新進92人、離職57人、主管69人，但未在可讀片段中完整揭露期末總員工數。主要股東未取得完整前十大名單；可確認董監持股合計約18.67%，鉅亨網2023年8月董監持股片段列示葉明洲、陳金鳳、葉俊麟、郭正沛等內部人持股。
Business
弘裕主要經營各種棉、毛、絲纖維織品之製造、代織、買賣、印染、整理與加工內外銷，以及塑膠製品加工製造買賣與進出口貿易。公司定位在紡織產業鏈中游，涵蓋紡紗、織布、染整與醫療紡織品等，產品應用包括工業袋材面料、成衣面料、傢飾面料、戶外簾布、醫療紡織品、箱包與人造皮革相關布料。2025/11/4法說會揭露2025年1至6月合併營收新台幣1,440,980千元，產品銷售比重為工業935,899千元約65%、成衣211,231千元約14%、傢飾155,390千元約11%、醫療54,266千元約4%、代工及其他84,194千元約6%；以產品型態看，胚布889,062千元約62%、成品布467,745千元約32%、代工及其他約6%。銷售區域以台灣與海外各約50%；海外區域中，中國含香港約31%、東協六國約29%、美國約22%、加拿大約9%、亞洲其他約4%、其他約5%。公司商業模式為接單生產與研發機能布料，供應工業、戶外運動、戰術／狩獵、箱包、傢飾簾布、醫療與成衣相關客戶。2025年公司研發重點包括零廢設計與循環再生、海洋廢料再造、紡織廢料再生、玻璃廢料新價值，並以單一材質、回收聚酯、PET塗層、防潑水、耐磨、透氣彈性等機能布料提升差異化。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028展望可分為成長動能與風險兩面。成長動能：一，工業用布為最大營收來源，2025上半年占比65%，若工業袋材、戶外、箱包與戰術／狩獵布需求復甦，將直接影響稼動率與毛利率；二，傢飾用布占比雖約11%，但2025上半年毛利率達38%，公司稱高毛利產品布局已見效，後續若戶外簾布與環保捲簾產品放量，產品組合有利改善；三，永續材料與循環再生布料是中長期競爭重點，公司已取得或揭露 GRS、ISO 14064-1、BLUESIGN、ISO 9001、QMS 等證書或查證，並開發回收漁網、寶特瓶、消費前胚布／色布、消費後成衣等再生來源產品；四，2025法說會提到產品研發聚焦利基市場，包括狩獵與戰術用品市場、戶外運動服飾市場、環保捲簾市場，並參與 SHOT Show、ILM、Enforce Tac 等國際展會拓銷；五，公司可透過台灣、中國大陸、越南產能與低價原料配置改善成本。2025營運狀況：2025年1至9月合併營收2,168,930千元，較2024年同期2,294,519千元減少5.47%；2025上半年營收1,440,980千元年減6%，但毛利率由2024上半年的9%升至13%，營業利益由虧損39,886千元轉為獲利13,426千元。經濟日報引述公司表示，5、6月受新台幣快速升值與美國關稅衝擊，品牌商採購保守，第2季獲利承壓；但下半年毛利率可望優於去年，2026世界運動會題材可能帶動部分品牌提前拉貨。主要風險：全球消費保守、中國紡織市場供過於求、中美貿易戰與關稅、匯率波動、品牌商去庫存或採購延後、原料價格波動、海外擴產延後、永續材料成本與認證要求提高。2026至2028未見公司正式財測，以上為依公司法說、年報與產業趨勢推估。
Supply Chain
- 台灣化學纖維 1326 產業鏈上游石化與化纖原料供應商代表；弘裕法說會將石油化學、人纖、化纖加工絲列為上游，但未確認台化為直接供應商。
- 南亞塑膠 1303 產業鏈上游 EG、PTA、聚酯與塑膠材料相關供應商代表；未確認為弘裕直接供應商。
- 力麗企業 1444 聚酯加工絲、化纖及紡織上游／中游供應鏈代表；未確認為弘裕直接供應商。
- 集盛實業 1455 尼龍粒、尼龍絲與加工絲等紡織原料供應鏈代表；未確認為弘裕直接供應商。
- 新光合成纖維 1409 聚酯纖維與化纖材料供應鏈代表；未確認為弘裕直接供應商。
- 遠東新世紀 1402 聚酯、回收聚酯與紡織材料供應鏈代表；未確認為弘裕直接供應商。
- 國際品牌商與戶外／戰術用品客戶 公司法說會揭露狩獵與戰術用品、戶外運動服飾市場為研發與拓銷重點；具體客戶名稱未公開。
- 箱包工廠與三次加工廠 弘裕法說會產業鏈圖將箱包工廠、三次加工廠列為下游；具體客戶未公開。
- 成衣製造廠 弘裕供應成衣面料，法說會將成衣製造廠列為下游；具體客戶未公開。
- 人造皮革與PU／PVC合成皮革廠 弘裕產品應用包含人造皮革、PU／PVC合成皮革相關布料；具體客戶未公開。
- 醫療通路與醫療紡織品客戶 公司2012年設立醫材廠並揭露醫療紡織品營收；具體客戶未公開。
Competitors
- 新紡 1419 台股上市紡織同業，股感列為弘裕織布業務競爭對手。
- 福懋 1434 台股上市紡織與工業布同業，股感列為競爭對手。
- 大宇 1445 台股上市紡織同業，股感列為競爭對手。
- 佳和 1449 台股上市紡織同業，股感列為競爭對手。
- 台富 1454 台股上市紡織同業，股感列為競爭對手。
- 嘉畜 台股上市紡織相關同業，股感列為競爭對手。
- 宏遠 1460 台股上市紡織與機能布同業，股感列為競爭對手。
- 得力 1464 台股上市紡織同業，股感列為競爭對手。
- 偉全 1465 台股上市紡織同業，股感列為競爭對手。
- 昶和 1468 台股上市染整／紡織同業，股感列為競爭對手。
- 儒鴻 1476 台股上市機能布與成衣大廠，雖未在股感競爭對手片段列示，但在機能布與成衣面料市場具可比性。
Sources（12）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.