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1618

合機 Electrical & Cable As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 合機 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 80Quality 88Growth 95Momentum 36Chips 77

Is 合機 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~93% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.6%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 5th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 15th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 4.9% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 153.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.61
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 holds 513 lots
  • sellers have 967 lots left, ~240 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -6% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 has accumulated 513 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 國泰證券 peaked at 948 lots, has sold 39%, 580 left, ~30 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.20pp, mid holders +2, retail -1.30pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,470 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
(牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐富邦-公益台新-松德元大-敦南群益金鼎-新店富邦-和美
Distributing
國泰證券美商高盛港商野村台灣摩根士丹利凱基台新-成功
Desks
own scale
美林華南永昌新加坡商瑞銀凱基-桃園
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 +513
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-公益 +469
    sold 0%
  • 台新-松德 +405
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-敦南 +296
    sold 0%
  • 群益金鼎-新店 +289
    sold 0%
  • 富邦-和美 +189
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 國泰證券 580 left
    sold 39%· ~30 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 560 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 107 left
    sold 60%· paused recently
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 85 left
    sold 66%· paused recently
  • 凱基 35 left
    sold 83%· paused recently
  • 台新-成功 99 left
    sold 42%· ~62 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 美林 -598
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 華南永昌 -595
    unclassified
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -444
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-桃園 -359
    unclassified
Still selling 967 lots ~240 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,078 absorbed / -552 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,352 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 153.16%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

90 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 60%, Sample 80, Median +1.29%, Excess +0.98%, Beat mkt rate 45%；60-day: Win 57.5%, Sample 80, Median +3.31%, Excess +1.2%, Beat mkt rate 45%；120-day: Win 63.3%, Sample 79, Median +3.74%, Excess +0.31%, Beat mkt rate 45.6%

120 days after: historical avg +9.72%

20-day +2.39%
60-day +5.87%
120-day +9.72%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
60%
57.5%
63.3%
Sample
80
80
79
Median
+1.29%
+3.31%
+3.74%
Excess
+0.98%
+1.2%
+0.31%
Beat mkt rate
45%
45%
45.6%

Over 79 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.72%, beat the market by 0.31 pts; win rate 63.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here14Insufficient data
20-40 407+25.7% +12.6% 62.2% +5.4%
40-60 587+28.1% +13.2% 71.6% +10%
60-80 748+50.3% +42.3% 82.1% +18%
80-100 472-0.8% -4.7% 34.7% -12.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 9.21, at the 15.0th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+3.7%
Win rate 46.6% Excess -15.8%
116d
+22.8%
Win rate 69.3% Excess +10.8%
645d
+12.5%
Win rate 58.9% Excess +0.6%
599d
60-day momentum down
+5.5%
Win rate 55.3% Excess -10.6%
273d
+4%
Win rate 48.3% Excess +3.4%
271d
+6.3%
Win rate 52.3% Excess -3.9%
444d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 116 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 3.7%, win rate 46.6%, lagged the market by 15.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +10.84%, win rate 68%, beating the market by +4.33 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

49 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.75%, win rate 43.8%, beating the market by -1.13 pts on average.

What does 合機 do? Company profile

電器電纜 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

合機電線電纜股份有限公司，統一編號23206102，為台灣上市電線電纜製造商。公司成立於1989年3月1日，1998年上櫃，2000年股票上市公開買賣；上市日期公開股市資料列為2000年9月11日。總部／通訊地址為台北市中山區復興南路一段36之9號3樓，主要生產據點位於桃園觀音工業區。董事長為李新政，總經理為郭晉勳，發言人為財務主管周亭儀。實收資本額約新台幣19.27億元，已發行普通股約1.9269億股。員工規模依公開徵才資料約230人，2025年法說摘要資料約227人。主要股東方面，112年年報揭露前十大股東中嵩益實業股份有限公司持股62,045,531股、持股比率32.20%，洋華光電股份有限公司持股10,586,200股、比率5.49%，章苗開發股份有限公司持股8,133,271股、比率4.22%；2026年5月Goodinfo資料顯示全體董監事持股約69,061張、持股比率35.8%。

Business

合機為電線電纜製造與工程服務公司，主要產品包含交連PE／XLPE電力電纜、PVC絕緣電線、鋁線、電力附屬器材、光纜、通信銅纜與網路線。公司官網表示，產品涵蓋鋁線材、銅線材、電力電纜、通信電纜、光纖電纜、耐熱電纜、低煙無毒防火電纜與網際網路線。核心營收來自電力電纜，2025年度法說摘要指出交連電纜約占營收65%，產品涵蓋6kV至345kV；其中69kV以上超高壓電纜及接續工程是台電電網基礎設施的重要供應項目，2025年營收主力為161kV超高壓電纜。PVC絕緣電線應用於建築、工廠與室內外低壓配線；鋁線用於架空輸配電；光纜與通信銅纜主要供電信網路業者、工程公司、鐵道與捷運通信控制系統使用；網路線外銷美國、歐盟、中東、東南亞等市場。商業模式以製造銷售、公共工程與電力工程標案、超高壓電纜接續工程整合服務為主，內銷比重高，2025法說摘要稱國內市場約占營收95%，單一主要客戶台電約占銷售六成；主要國內客戶／實績包括台灣電力公司、台灣鐵路、台灣中油、中華電信、台塑集團、發電廠與公共工程。2025全年合併營收約48.15億元、年增3%，毛利率約19%，稅後淨利約8.11億元，EPS約4.21元；需注意業外黃金存摺未實現利益與股利收入對2025年獲利有明顯貢獻。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年主要展望來自台電強韌電網計畫、再生能源併網、都會區供電穩定、科學園區與AI資料中心電力需求，以及高壓／超高壓電纜地下化與接續工程需求。2025上半年合機受惠161kV與345kV超高壓交連PE電纜驗收與出貨，營收、毛利與EPS成長；截至2025年8月底，法說摘要稱公司取得三項超高壓電纜標案，包含兩項161kV與一項345kV，合計約33.3億元，後續依台電工程進度分批出貨認列。2026年法說摘要指出公司預期未來幾年本業營運可維持近兩年高檔，主因台電強韌電網計畫自2022至2032年持續釋出需求；合機具備69kV、161kV、345kV台電定型合格認證，以及超高壓電纜接續工程團隊，技術與工程整合能力為競爭優勢。海外方面，公司已切入日本架空鋁線市場，取得東京電力技術審核認可，並取得或推動日本JIS、PSE等認證；歐美市場以UL／CPR認證網路線與中低壓產品為主。潛在風險包括：營收認列高度依賴台電工程排程與驗收時點，單月／單季波動大；大型標案可能造成客戶集中與議價壓力；銅、鋁、PVC、PE等原物料價格波動會影響成本與報價；超高壓接續工程可能面臨施工人力與排程瓶頸；345kV高毛利產品占比若下降，毛利率可能受壓；美國關稅與海外低價非合規產品競爭可能影響外銷；2025年EPS部分受業外黃金與股利收益推升，未必能穩定延續。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 華新麗華 1605 同屬電線電纜產業，亦為銅材、線纜相關供應鏈重要業者；對合機而言，上游關鍵原料為銅導體、鋁材、PVC／PE絕緣被覆材料與電纜附件，實際採購對象未逐一公開，故列為產業供應鏈關聯而非已確認直接供應商。
  • 台塑 1301 PVC塑膠原料台股上市上游代表；合機PVC絕緣電線需使用PVC等塑膠材料，但未查得合機指定台塑為直接供應商，列為可能產業上游關聯。
  • 台聚 1304 聚乙烯等塑化材料台股上市上游代表；合機XLPE／PE絕緣電纜需使用聚乙烯與交連材料，但未查得直接供應關係，列為可能產業上游關聯。
  • 國際銅、鋁與電纜材料供應商 非特定台股掛牌公司；合機主要成本與報價受銅、鋁、塑化絕緣材料、光纖／光纜材料及電纜接續附件影響，公開資料未完整揭露實際供應商名單。
Downstream
  • 台灣電力公司 未上市國營事業；合機為台電69kV、161kV、345kV電纜合格供應商，台電強韌電網計畫與超高壓電纜標案為主要成長動能，法說摘要稱單一主要客戶約占銷售六成。
  • 中華電信 2412 上市公司；合機光纜、通信銅纜為中華電信審查合格供應商，通信線產品應用於電信固網、機房、管道與用戶端配線。
  • 台灣中油 未上市國營事業；合機官網列為國內市場客戶／公共工程實績之一，應用於廠區電力與工程配線。
  • 台灣鐵路公司 未上市國營公司；合機官網列為國內市場客戶，產品可用於鐵道與捷運通信控制、電力配線等系統。
  • 台塑 1301 上市公司；合機官網列台塑集團與台塑越南仁澤廠、台塑寧波電熱廠等為合作實績，屬民間企業與海外建廠電纜需求。
  • 東京電力公司 日本電力公司，非台股掛牌；合機法說摘要提及架空鋁線取得東京電力技術審核認可並持續出貨，為海外市場拓展重點。
  • 海外網路線客戶 非特定上市櫃公司；合機外銷美國UL認證網路線、歐盟CPR認證網路線、中東與東南亞C5e／C6／C6A網路線。

Competitors

  • 華新麗華 1605 上市電線電纜與不銹鋼大廠，參與台電強韌電網與高壓電纜市場，為合機在電力電纜標案的主要同業。
  • 大亞 1609 上市電線電纜與能源事業公司，為台電電纜標案常見競爭者。
  • 華榮 1608 上市電線電纜公司，產品涵蓋電力、通信與各式線纜，與合機同屬電器電纜族群。
  • 宏泰 1612 上市電線電纜公司，2025年台電161kV交連PE電纜標案受惠廠商之一。
  • 華電 1603 上市電線電纜公司，參與台電高壓／超高壓電纜標案，為合機同業競爭者。
  • 大山 1615 上市電線電纜公司，2025年台電193億元電纜標案受惠廠商之一。
  • 大東電 1623 上市電線電纜公司，報導列為具備超高壓技術認證的台電標案參與者之一。
  • 億泰 1616 上市電線電纜公司，屬同產業競爭者，產品與市場部分重疊。
Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.