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1718

中纖 Chemicals As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 中纖 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 46Quality 71Growth 50Momentum 77Chips 72

Is 中纖 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~87% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.2%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 71th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 85th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 3.8% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral +0.11
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 台中銀-台北 holds 7,897 lots
  • sellers have 6,933 lots left, ~72 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +33% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台中銀-台北 has accumulated 7,897 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 10,271 lots, has sold 83%, 1,751 left, ~5 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.19pp, mid holders -33, retail +1.11pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -8,858 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台中銀-台北國泰-敦南美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利元大-成功華南永昌-台南
Distributing
元大證券凱基-台北(牛牛牛)亞-網路富邦-台北臺銀-臺中花旗環球
Desks
own scale
新加坡商瑞銀元富-信義元大-大灣福勝
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台中銀-台北 +7,897
    sold 0%
  • 國泰-敦南 +6,624
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +4,776
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +3,888
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-成功 +2,506
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 華南永昌-台南 +1,932
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 元大證券 1,751 left
    sold 83%· ~5 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 1,881 left
    sold 70%· ~44 sessions to clear
  • (牛牛牛)亞-網路 938 left
    sold 69%· ~42 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-台北 338 left
    sold 86%· paused recently
  • 臺銀-臺中 254 left
    sold 89%· ~24 sessions to clear
  • 花旗環球 509 left
    sold 52%· paused recently

Desks

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -4,994
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 元富-信義 -3,499
    unclassified
  • 元大-大灣 -3,168
    unclassified
  • 福勝 -2,310
    unclassified
Still selling 6,933 lots ~72 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +35,015 absorbed / -6,471 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -8,585 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 6%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

59 historical occurrences (since 2012-07-03)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 46.6%, Sample 58, Median -0.05%, Excess -0.88%, Beat mkt rate 43.1%；60-day: Win 37.9%, Sample 58, Median -2.5%, Excess -4.66%, Beat mkt rate 32.8%；120-day: Win 36.2%, Sample 58, Median -5.26%, Excess -8.63%, Beat mkt rate 25.9%

120 days after: historical avg -1.91%

20-day -0.65%
60-day -2.37%
120-day -1.91%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
46.6%
37.9%
36.2%
Sample
58
58
58
Median
-0.05%
-2.5%
-5.26%
Excess
-0.88%
-4.66%
-8.63%
Beat mkt rate
43.1%
32.8%
25.9%

Over 58 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 1.91%, lagged the market by 8.63 pts; win rate 36.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 421+1.2% -1.2% 47.3% -40%
20-40 360-15.3% -17.5% 19.4% -65.1%
40-60 348+2.4% +6.2% 60.9% -23.2%
60-80 154-15.1% -18.3% 16.9% -16.8%
80-100 You are here188+26.1% +29.4% 86.2% +14%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 40.79, at the 84.6th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-7.5%
Win rate 35.1% Excess -20.8%
385d
+0.6%
Win rate 51.9% Excess -4.8%
212d
Now
-0.6%
Win rate 54.9% Excess -1.4%
142d
60-day momentum down
-10.8%
Win rate 15.1% Excess -29.2%
403d
+9.5%
Win rate 75.7% Excess -14.5%
230d
+17.9%
Win rate 68.9% Excess -16%
219d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 142 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 0.6%, win rate 54.9%, lagged the market by 1.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.23%, win rate 55.6%, beating the market by -0.22 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

63 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.71%, win rate 50.9%, beating the market by +2.51 pts on average.

What does 中纖 do? Company profile

化學工業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

1718 對應證券為中國人造纖維股份有限公司，簡稱中纖，屬台灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業別為化學工業。公司成立於1955/05/11，上市日期為1963/12/02；公司登記地址為高雄市大社區經建路8號，官網列示聯絡地址亦含台北市新生南路一段50號。董事長為王貴賢，總經理為王皆誼，發言人為吳宏揚。實收資本額為新台幣16,859,057,450元，已發行普通股1,685,905,745股。公司主要股東依中纖官網2026年第2季資料包括磐亞股份有限公司15.78%、勝仁針織廠股份有限公司4.37%、久津實業股份有限公司3.65%、磐亞投資股份有限公司3.11%、中纖投資股份有限公司2.61%等。法說會摘要資料列員工人數約488人；104人力銀行徵才頁列員工數約600人，推測為統計口徑或更新時點不同，應以公司正式揭露為準。關係企業包括磐亞股份有限公司、台中商業銀行股份有限公司、台灣金醇洋酒股份有限公司、久津實業股份有限公司。

Business

中纖為化工與化纖並重的製造公司，主要業務包括人造纖維、聚胺纖維、聚酯纖維、化學品及其原料製造加工與買賣，並生產乙二醇、環氧乙烷、壬酚、氣體產品及汽電共生相關產品。主要化工產品包括單乙二醇MEG、二乙二醇DEG、三乙二醇TEG、環氧乙烷EO、壬酚NP；主要化纖產品包括聚酯粒、聚酯絲、聚酯加工絲等。官網揭露乙二醇系列產品中，MEG產能約450,000公噸/年，DEG約40,000公噸/年，TEG約2,500公噸/年，EO約53,000公噸/年。2024年個體營收結構依2025法說會整理為化工53%、化纖42%、其他5%；MoneyDJ整理為化工54%、化纖42%、其他4%，兩者差異不大。商業模式為採購乙烯、壬烯、酚、煤及PTA等原料，透過高雄及相關石化、聚酯產線製成EG/EO/NP與聚酯纖維，部分EG自用於聚酯廠，部分外售亞洲聚酯工廠；EO主要供界面活性劑等化工客戶；NP供界面活性劑、抗氧化劑、安定劑、酚醛樹脂、潤滑油添加劑等用途；聚酯絲供加工絲廠、紡織廠、工業布、鞋材、織袋等應用。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分為三條主軸：第一，EG/EO化工產品受聚酯產業鏈需求與供給週期影響。中纖官網指出下游聚酯廠擴廠會增加乙二醇需求，外部產業研究亦指出2025至2026年聚酯長絲、短纖、PET瓶片擴產可能拉動乙二醇需求；但中國大陸乙二醇與聚酯產能龐大，價格、開工率、庫存與原料乙烯價差仍是主要波動來源。第二，化纖產品走向客製化、多樣化、精緻化與差異化，中纖已揭露ATY空氣假撚紗原絲、細丹尼聚酯絲、假撚機台、回收分離熱煤油與節能變頻設施等方向；若環保紗、生質乙烯、生質乙二醇、生質高純度環氧乙烷及製程廢料循環回收技術能商業化，有機會提升國際品牌供應鏈接受度與產品附加價值。第三，長期策略包括穩定乙二醇下游客戶、透過投資合作增加EG銷售量與市占率，壬酚業務則與下游界面活性劑與相關製品建立更深合作。主要風險包括：原油、乙烯、煤、壬烯、酚、PTA等原料價格波動；中國大陸化纖與石化擴產造成價格競爭；台幣匯率與出口需求波動；高耗能化工製程面臨碳費、環保、VOC、水排放與安全法規成本；EG/EO/NP屬景氣循環產品，利差修復若不如預期將壓抑獲利；公司合併財報含重要轉投資，歸屬母公司獲利與合併淨利可能出現落差。2027至2028具體財務目標未見公司公開量化揭露，因此以上屬基於公司揭露與產業趨勢的分析推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台灣中油股份有限公司 未上市國營事業；中纖官網揭露高雄石化廠乙二醇基本原料乙烯與中國石油公司訂有長期供應合約。
  • 台塑石化股份有限公司 6505 台股上市公司；中纖官網揭露向中油及台塑石化取得乙烯，用於製造乙二醇及環氧乙烷。
  • 台灣化學纖維股份有限公司 1326 台股上市公司；中纖官網揭露壬酚原料酚由台灣化學纖維公司長期穩定供應。
  • 國外壬烯供應商 中纖官網揭露壬酚基本原料壬烯目前全部仰賴進口，採分散採購以分攤風險；未揭露具名供應商。
  • 國外煤炭供應商 中纖官網揭露汽電共生主要原料煤全部仰賴進口，與供應商維持長期穩定關係；未揭露具名供應商。
Downstream
  • 國內外聚酯工廠 中纖乙二醇除自供聚酯工廠使用外，亦外售其他亞洲地區聚酯工廠；未揭露具名客戶。
  • 界面活性劑廠 中纖官網揭露環氧乙烷出售予界面活性劑廠，壬酚亦出售國內外界面活性劑廠使用；未揭露具名客戶。
  • 加工絲廠及紡織廠 中纖官網揭露聚酯絲供應國內外加工絲廠及紡織廠，用於織布、織袋、工業用布、鞋材等。
  • 工業助劑、抗氧化劑、樹脂及潤滑油添加劑廠 壬酚下游用途包括界面活性劑、抗氧化劑、安定劑、酚醛樹脂、潤滑油添加劑等；未揭露具名客戶。

Competitors

Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.