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2032

新鋼 Iron & Steel As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 新鋼 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 62Quality 65Growth 73Momentum 60Chips 86

Is 新鋼 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 55th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.6%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 45th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 19th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 8.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 28.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.70
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 872 lots
  • sellers have 739 lots left, ~30 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +4% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 872 lots since the start (sold 14%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 新加坡商瑞銀 peaked at 381 lots, has sold 32%, 260 left, ~23 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.94pp, mid holders +4, retail -2.67pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -170 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利凱基-台北兆豐-新莊摩根大通美林元大-三民
Distributing
新加坡商瑞銀永豐金-竹科台新-宜蘭安泰-大發港商野村元大-大甲
Desks
own scale
美好-富順國票-內壢元大-中壢元大-新竹經國
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +872
    sold 14%
  • 凱基-台北 +817
    sold 15%· still adding
  • 兆豐-新莊 +612
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +600
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 美林 +329
    sold 17%· still adding
  • 元大-三民 +261
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 260 left
    sold 32%· ~23 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-竹科 49 left
    sold 73%· paused recently
  • 台新-宜蘭 93 left
    sold 46%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 安泰-大發 92 left
    sold 43%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 80 left
    sold 44%· ~17 sessions to clear
  • 元大-大甲 53 left
    sold 63%· paused recently

Desks

  • 美好-富順 -368
    unclassified
  • 國票-內壢 -300
    unclassified
  • 元大-中壢 -287
    unclassified
  • 元大-新竹經國 -275
    unclassified
Still selling 739 lots ~30 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,910 absorbed / -549 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 28.67%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

55 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 35%, Sample 40, Median -2.42%, Excess -1.39%, Beat mkt rate 22.5%；60-day: Win 32.5%, Sample 40, Median -4.11%, Excess -4.54%, Beat mkt rate 22.5%；120-day: Win 33.3%, Sample 39, Median -7.12%, Excess -5.33%, Beat mkt rate 23.1%

120 days after: historical avg -0.43%

20-day -1.21%
60-day -1.78%
120-day -0.43%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
35%
32.5%
33.3%
Sample
40
40
39
Median
-2.42%
-4.11%
-7.12%
Excess
-1.39%
-4.54%
-5.33%
Beat mkt rate
22.5%
22.5%
23.1%

Over 39 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 0.43%, lagged the market by 5.33 pts; win rate 33.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here350-4.3% -6.4% 36.9% -13.1%
20-40 524+41% +6.7% 53.4% +23.3%
40-60 763+28% +5.7% 67.4% +2.5%
60-80 624-2% -3.3% 39.3% -14.9%
80-100 381-8.2% -7.4% 23.4% -33.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 20.12, at the 19.0th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+18.5%
Win rate 55.7% Excess +10%
271d
+16%
Win rate 56% Excess +6.1%
652d
-6.5%
Win rate 33.1% Excess -20%
438d
60-day momentum down
+3%
Win rate 47.5% Excess +0.2%
398d
+5.7%
Win rate 60.8% Excess -4.8%
590d
+2.1%
Win rate 57.9% Excess -9.1%
413d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 271 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 18.5%, win rate 55.7%, beat the market by 10%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.76%, win rate 42.9%, beating the market by +5.35 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

33 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.37%, win rate 45.5%, beating the market by -3.09 pts on average.

What does 新鋼 do? Company profile

鋼鐵工業／不銹鋼裁剪加工與表面處理 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2032 對應證券為新鋼工業股份有限公司普通股，市場別為上市。公司成立於1971/07/10，上市掛牌日為2000/09/11，總部位於新北市新莊區大安路8號，另有新莊廠、大園廠、台中營業所、台南辦事處及高雄營業所。董事長為蔡政廷，總經理為成主賜；統一編號34008635；實收資本額新台幣1,305,215,450元，已發行普通股130,521,545股，無特別股、公司債、海外存託憑證。2025年年報揭露截至2025/03/31員工147人，2024年底員工148人。主要股東依2024年年報包括李文隆、李文發、富巨春股份有限公司、蔡錫奇、安溪投資股份有限公司、春明堯穩賺股份有限公司、蔡錫儀、鄭毅宏、鄭毅明、安廷投資股份有限公司等，單一持股比例皆未逾10%。2025年度財報公告營收3,041,337仟元、營業利益24,965仟元、稅後淨利73,108仟元、EPS 0.56元；公司官網股務資訊揭露114年度現金股利每股0.5元。

Business

新鋼為不銹鋼材料二次加工與通路型公司，主要產品為各種不銹鋼板、捲、條、線、管，服務包含不銹鋼板與捲裁切、鋼捲分條、鋼捲與鋼板表面處理、鏡面處理、型鋼加工、不銹鋼管與產品、花紋止滑板。2024年度營業比重為不銹鋼板99.93%、其他不銹鋼產品及加工收入0.07%，內銷100%、外銷0%；銷售地區以台灣北部54.83%、中部22.33%、南部22.84%為主。商業模式為採購冷軋與熱軋不銹鋼板捲，經矯平、貼膜、分條、剪床、研磨、品檢、包裝等製程後銷售予分散在全台各產業客戶；年報明載無單一銷貨客戶占銷貨總額10%以上。終端用途涵蓋建築裝潢、食品設備、廚具、運輸、化學、醫療器材、電子、環保工程、消防工程、家電家具等。2024年產品銷售結構另有新聞資料指出304系不銹鋼約94%、400系約5%、316系約1%；依行業別約中盤加工27%、加工製造26%、建材25%、餐廚具8%、機械製造5%、電工器材5%，此分類來自媒體報導，非公司年報表格。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年公司已由2024年EPS 0.45元提升至2025年EPS 0.56元，全年營收約30.41億元；2026年第一季公開資訊顯示EPS 0.49元，2026年1至5月累計營收約13.85億元、年增約9.02%，短期營運受惠於內需建材、加工與部分補庫存動能。公司2025年年報對2025年展望指出全球不銹鋼市場仍面臨需求疲軟與價格壓力，中國大陸低價庫存去化後鋼廠有回補庫存與漲價意願，但中美關稅、亞洲與歐洲低價傾銷及過剩產能仍是風險；公司2025年目標銷售量為43,500噸。2025至2028年主要成長動能可歸納為：一、國內不銹鋼在建築裝潢、公共工程、食品、石化、電子與環保設備用途仍具長期替代碳鋼與鋁製品的結構性需求；二、公司將強化裁剪、分條、表面處理、鏡面處理與高附加價值產品，並改善自動化、節能、良率與交期；三、未來研發計畫包含追剪機、分條機、拋砂機、表面缺陷檢測系統、飛剪機張力控制等設備改善；四、公司短期計畫鞏固既有客源、拓展中下游客戶、建立產品形象、降低成本並計畫擴增生產線，長期計畫擴大產能、拓展全球與大陸市場、開發光電及高附加價值產品。主要風險為鎳價與不銹鋼盤價波動、原料採購與庫存評價風險、中國大陸與印尼低成本產能外溢、關稅造成下游客戶出口受阻、台灣內需復甦不如預期、客戶分散但授信與帳款回收管理壓力、能源與減碳成本、勞動力與自動化投資需求。2027至2028未見公司公開量化財測，以上為依公司年報策略、產業供需與截至2026/06/17已公告營運數據之推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 唐榮鐵工廠股份有限公司 2035 年報揭露國內自唐榮開始投產後逐漸轉向國內購買；2025年重要契約列示與唐榮簽訂經銷合約，提供煉鋼、熱軋、冷軋各生產過程中之產品。
  • 燁聯鋼鐵股份有限公司 年報列為國內不銹鋼原料供給體系之一；屬上游不銹鋼鋼胚、熱冷軋材料相關供應來源。
  • 東盟開發實業股份有限公司 年報列為國內投產後使不銹鋼原料自給率提升的供應體系之一；是否為新鋼直接主要供應商未具名揭露。
  • 華新麗華股份有限公司 1605 年報列為國內不銹鋼材料供應體系之一；華新麗華為台股上市公司，但新鋼年報主要供應商以代號揭露，未確認其對應供應商代號。
  • 日本、南非、西班牙、芬蘭、巴西等國外不銹鋼供應商 年報說明過去原料全仰賴國外進口，與上述地區供應商維持多年合作；未揭露具體公司名稱，非台股掛牌資訊。
Downstream
  • 建築裝潢材料客戶群 年報揭露下游包含建築業，產品用於電梯、天花板、帷幕牆、衛浴、門窗、把手、水塔等；客戶分散且無單一客戶占銷貨總額10%以上。
  • 食品與廚具工業客戶群 年報揭露產品用於食品貯槽、冷凍槽櫃、過濾、攪拌、蒸餾設備，以及廚具、鍋碗瓢盆、保溫瓶、烤箱、抽油煙機等；未揭露個別公司。
  • 運輸與機械製造客戶群 年報揭露產品用於電聯車、捷運、汽機車、油罐車、消音器零配件，以及其他機械製造與加工行業；未揭露具名客戶。
  • 化學、醫療、電子、環保與消防工程客戶群 年報揭露產品用於化學油槽管閥、醫療器材、電子產品外殼、洗滌塔、排煙風管、消防管箱與灑水管件等；客戶群分散全台各產業。

Competitors

Sources（11）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.