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2211

長榮鋼 Iron & Steel As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 長榮鋼 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 83Quality 65Growth 69Momentum 39Chips 16

Is 長榮鋼 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~81% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.7%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 12th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 30th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -3.3% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 25.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.65
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 永豐金證券 holds 2,717 lots
  • sellers have 765 lots left, ~267 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -8% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 永豐金證券 has accumulated 2,717 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 統一 peaked at 2,276 lots, has sold 27%, 1,671 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.68pp, mid holders -7, retail -0.62pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -3,610 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
永豐金證券國泰證券元大證券中國信託大和國泰宏遠證券
Distributing
統一群益金鼎花旗環球凱基香港上海匯豐永豐金-北高雄
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利凱基-台北美商高盛摩根大通
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 永豐金證券 +2,717
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +1,619
    sold 7%
  • 元大證券 +1,114
    sold 20%· still adding
  • 中國信託 +745
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 大和國泰 +644
    sold 0%
  • 宏遠證券 +505
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 統一 1,671 left
    sold 27%· paused recently
  • 群益金鼎 302 left
    sold 67%· paused recently
  • 花旗環球 279 left
    sold 52%· ~14 sessions to clear
  • 凱基 160 left
    sold 70%· ~267 sessions to clear
  • 香港上海匯豐 243 left
    sold 29%· ~174 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-北高雄 122 left
    sold 40%· paused recently

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -2,281
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -2,096
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 美商高盛 -1,827
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 摩根大通 -1,022
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 765 lots ~267 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,803 absorbed / -351 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,504 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 25.02%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

31 historical occurrences (since 2021-04-12)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 60%, Sample 25, Median +1.45%, Excess +0.17%, Beat mkt rate 48%；60-day: Win 56%, Sample 25, Median +1.28%, Excess +3%, Beat mkt rate 56%；120-day: Win 52%, Sample 25, Median +5.09%, Excess +2.37%, Beat mkt rate 40%

120 days after: historical avg +8.98%

20-day +0.09%
60-day +4.77%
120-day +8.98%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
60%
56%
52%
Sample
25
25
25
Median
+1.45%
+1.28%
+5.09%
Excess
+0.17%
+3%
+2.37%
Beat mkt rate
48%
56%
40%

Over 25 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.98%, beat the market by 2.37 pts; win rate 52%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 0Insufficient data
20-40 You are here20Insufficient data
40-60 205-0.1% +11.9% 64.9% -36.3%
60-80 16Insufficient data
80-100 32-18.6% -19.4% 3.1% -35%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 11.5, at the 30.2th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(0d)
-3.7%
Win rate 44% Excess -35.1%
159d
Insufficient data
(0d)
60-day momentum down
Now
Insufficient data
(0d)
+3.6%
Win rate 43.8% Excess -7.8%
192d
-23.7%
Win rate 0% Excess -23.9%
42d

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

10 times historically; 60-day forward avg +12.15%, win rate 70%, beating the market by +6.63 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.41%, win rate 68.2%, beating the market by +4.02 pts on average.

What does 長榮鋼 do? Company profile

鋼鐵工業 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

2211 對應證券為長榮鋼鐵股份有限公司，英文簡稱 EGST，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業別為鋼鐵工業。公司設立日期為 1973 年 1 月 29 日，上市日期為 2021 年 4 月 12 日，總公司位於台北市中山區長安東路二段 100 號 11 樓。2026 年 5 月法說資料揭露資本額為新台幣 41.71 億元、員工人數 673 人；Goodinfo 公司資料亦列示發行股數 417,091,463 股、董事長林耿立、總經理劉邦恩。營運據點包含台南新營廠、新竹湖口廠與高雄港第七貨櫃中心；新營與新竹廠從事廠房、大樓、橋樑鋼結構製造及吊裝，第七貨櫃中心從事貨櫃修理及清洗。2024 年報董事資料顯示長榮海運持有 79,248,000 股、約 19.00%，為重要法人股東並由其代表人擔任董事長；另董事席次包含繪股份有限公司、維達開發股份有限公司等法人股東。公司主要轉投資事業包含欣榮企業、水美工程、榮鼎綠能與明昱投資；2024 年底綜合持股比率分別約為欣榮企業 73.23%、水美工程 48.13%、榮鼎綠能 69.12%、明昱投資 100%。

Business

長榮鋼的核心業務為鋼結構製造及吊裝、貨櫃修洗，以及轉投資環保與綠能事業。鋼構本業服務高樓建築、科技廠房、物流廠房、橋樑與公共工程，商業模式以承攬工程、鋼材採購、加工製造、現場吊裝與工程進度認列收入為主。2026 年 5 月法說資料顯示，2025 年鋼構製造量 128,607 噸、吊裝量 130,281 噸；2026 年第一季製造量 33,341 噸、吊裝量 28,732 噸。截至 2026 年 3 月底在手訂單 244,990 噸，其中廠房 47,375 噸、占 19%，大樓 197,544 噸、占 81%，橋樑 71 噸；最近一年接單 186,064 噸，其中廠房 33%、大樓 67%。2025 年合併營收為新台幣 153.21 億元，其中長榮鋼鐵本體 115.48 億元、約 75.37%，轉投資事業 37.73 億元、約 24.63%；2026 年第一季合併營收 33.31 億元，其中本體 24.27 億元、約 72.87%，轉投資事業 9.04 億元、約 27.13%。轉投資事業中，欣榮企業處理桃園市家用垃圾與一般事業廢棄物並售電予台電；水美工程處理有害事業廢棄物、醫療感染性廢棄物與特殊廢棄物；榮鼎綠能依 BOT 契約處理桃園市家戶垃圾、廚餘與一般事業廢棄物，透過熱處理與厭氧消化售電予台電。公司官網列示過往工程實績包含高速公路、台灣高鐵、南港展覽館、高雄世貿、長榮航太維修棚廠、醫院、故宮南院及多項高級住宅；2026 年法說列示近期完工實績包含忠泰建設金泰段商辦大樓、矽品精密工業二林廠房 P2 廠、泰民石牌等。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2026 年成長主軸為鋼構在手訂單充足、科技廠房與物流廠房推案、都更及大樓案需求、以及環保綠能轉投資恢復或進入穩定運轉。2026 年 5 月法說指出，科技廠房、物流廠房及都更案持續推動，短期鋼構市場量能穩定，目前接單量可滿足 2026 年訂單需求；截至 2026 年 3 月底在手訂單約 24.5 萬噸，超過公司年產能約 16 至 17 萬噸的量級，訂單組成以大樓為主，廠房比重提升。MoneyDJ 於 2026 年 5 月報導，公司表示截至 2026 年 4 月底在手訂單已超過 25 萬噸，第一季受業主土木工程進度延後影響，吊裝量略低於平均但只是遞延，今年吊裝量有望創歷史次高、營收可望成長。環保轉投資方面，欣榮企業整改完成後運轉率及汽渦輪機效能提升；水美工程新產線於 2025 年取得營運相關許可並正式運轉，策略上爭取高單價、高難度廢棄物；榮鼎綠能全廠於 2025 年 2 月正式商轉，後續熱處理與厭氧消化單元以穩定處理量能與售電收益為目標。2027 至 2028 年未見公司公開逐年量化指引，因此只能以中期推估描述：若科技廠房、物流倉儲、都更危老與公共工程維持，鋼構本業仍具一定能見度；但大樓案受政府房市政策、選擇性信用管制、建商資金環境與景氣循環影響，推案量放緩可能壓抑 2027 年後訂單。主要風險包含鋼材價格波動、工資與缺工、業主工程進度遞延、住宅政策與景氣波動、國際地緣事件造成材料成本與供應不確定性、同業競爭、環保法規趨嚴、碳費及客戶碳足跡要求。公司因應措施包括爭取鋼材價格浮動機制、推動長單、強化供應商聯繫管理、取得產品碳足跡或碳排相關認證、導入能源與環境管理系統、投資太陽能與製程節能。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中鋼 2002 台灣主要上游鋼材供應商之一，產品包含鋼板、型鋼等鋼構用原料；未能由公開資料確認為長榮鋼直接供應商，列為產業鏈上游關係。
  • 中鴻 2014 中鋼集團下游熱軋、冷軋鋼材廠，屬鋼構加工可能使用之鋼材供應鏈；未確認為直接供應商。
  • 東和鋼鐵 2006 鋼筋、型鋼與鋼構相關業者，亦透過東鋼鋼結構參與鋼構市場；可視為上游材料與同業競爭雙重角色，未確認為直接供應商。
  • 豐興 2015 國內鋼筋與型鋼重要供應商，屬建築鋼材上游；未確認為長榮鋼直接供應商。
  • 春源 2010 鋼材加工、流通及鋼構相關業者，屬鋼材供應鏈與競爭者；未確認為直接供應商。
  • 協力承攬商與吊裝包商 公司年報提及需提前規劃協力商人力調度並簽訂標前協議，屬鋼構製造、吊裝、發包與工地施工供應鏈；多為未上市或未具名廠商。
Downstream
  • 科技廠房業主 法說與年報多次指出科技廠房為鋼構需求來源；包含半導體、封測、電子製造等建廠案，但公開資料多未揭露最終業主完整清單。
  • 日月光投控 3711 2026 年法說列示矽品精密工業二林廠房 P2 廠為近期完工實績；矽品屬日月光投控旗下封測體系，推定為終端應用或業主關係，實際契約對象未公開確認。
  • 長榮海運 2603 關係企業與重要法人股東，持有長榮鋼約 19%；長榮鋼貨櫃修洗業務配合海運公司用櫃需求，且年報揭露曾向長榮海運承租高雄港第七貨櫃中心辦公室及修櫃廠房。
  • 台灣電力公司 未上市國營事業；欣榮企業與榮鼎綠能將廢棄物處理及厭氧消化產生之電能躉售予台電。
  • 桃園市政府 政府機關、非上市公司；欣榮企業與榮鼎綠能依契約處理桃園市家戶垃圾、廚餘及相關廢棄物，是環保轉投資事業的重要下游客戶或契約對象。
  • 建設公司、營造廠與都更案業主 鋼構下游涵蓋大樓、商辦、住宅、都更、危老重建與公共工程案；公司 2026 年法說顯示在手訂單大樓占 81%，但多數專案契約對象未完整公開。

Competitors

  • 中鋼構 2013 台灣主要鋼結構廠，產品涵蓋工程鋼結構製造與鋼品，為長榮鋼在高樓、廠房、公共工程鋼構市場的直接競爭者。
  • 世紀鋼 9958 大型鋼結構與離岸風電鋼構廠，產品包含高樓鋼構、廠房鋼構、公共工程與風電鋼構；部分鋼構市場與長榮鋼重疊。
  • 春源 2010 鋼材加工與鋼構相關業者，公開產業資料列為國內鋼構主要競爭廠商之一。
  • 東和鋼鐵 2006 國內鋼筋、型鋼及東鋼鋼結構體系業者，與長榮鋼在鋼構與建築鋼材市場部分競爭。
  • 豐興 2015 鋼筋與型鋼大廠，主要為建築鋼材供應鏈競爭者；在鋼構上游材料與部分工程市場具競爭關係。
  • 桂宏 鋼鐵與金屬製品業者，公開同業資料常列於鋼材與鋼構相關競爭族群；與長榮鋼直接競爭程度低於中鋼構、世紀鋼。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.