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2425

承啟 Computer & Peripherals As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 承啟 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 37Quality 26Growth 92Momentum 67Chips 73

Is 承啟 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 27th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.2%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 75th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 80th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 3.9% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 95.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.64
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 美商高盛 holds 1,148 lots
  • sellers have 419 lots left, ~47 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +24% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 1,148 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 1,286 lots, has sold 32%, 877 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.15pp, mid holders +3, retail -2.42pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -98 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美商高盛新加坡商瑞銀港商野村台新-大昌台新-嘉義元富-大昌
Distributing
凱基-台北台灣摩根士丹利元大證券(牛牛牛)亞-網路華南永昌-岡山兆豐-板橋
Desks
own scale
群益金鼎國泰證券富邦-三重台新證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美商高盛 +1,148
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +762
    sold 23%· still adding
  • 港商野村 +745
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新-大昌 +624
    sold 0%
  • 台新-嘉義 +434
    sold 0%
  • 元富-大昌 +352
    sold 1%

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 877 left
    sold 32%· paused recently
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 307 left
    sold 46%· ~47 sessions to clear
  • 元大證券 36 left
    sold 75%· paused recently
  • (牛牛牛)亞-網路 36 left
    sold 73%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌-岡山 26 left
    sold 66%· paused recently
  • 兆豐-板橋 45 left
    sold 40%· paused recently

Desks

  • 群益金鼎 -899
    unclassified
  • 國泰證券 -404
    unclassified
  • 富邦-三重 -215
    unclassified
  • 台新證券 -181
    unclassified
Still selling 419 lots ~47 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,904 absorbed / -217 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

19 historical occurrences (since 2009-07-27)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 61.1%, Sample 18, Median +6.48%, Excess +10.45%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%；60-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 18, Median +14.74%, Excess +9.25%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%；120-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 18, Median +9.18%, Excess +22.61%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%

120 days after: historical avg +27.31%

20-day +12.58%
60-day +12.41%
120-day +27.31%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.1%
55.6%
55.6%
Sample
18
18
18
Median
+6.48%
+14.74%
+9.18%
Excess
+10.45%
+9.25%
+22.61%
Beat mkt rate
55.6%
55.6%
66.7%

Over 18 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 27.31%, beat the market by 22.61 pts; win rate 55.6%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 95.17%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

97 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 52.9%, Sample 87, Median +0.91%, Excess +0.55%, Beat mkt rate 43.7%；60-day: Win 45.9%, Sample 85, Median -2.76%, Excess -3.64%, Beat mkt rate 36.5%；120-day: Win 36.6%, Sample 82, Median -3.91%, Excess -8.59%, Beat mkt rate 30.5%

120 days after: historical avg +0.71%

20-day +1.86%
60-day +1.26%
120-day +0.71%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.9%
45.9%
36.6%
Sample
87
85
82
Median
+0.91%
-2.76%
-3.91%
Excess
+0.55%
-3.64%
-8.59%
Beat mkt rate
43.7%
36.5%
30.5%

Over 82 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 0.71%, lagged the market by 8.59 pts; win rate 36.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 280+53.4% +52% 93.9% +30.8%
20-40 280+0.3% -2.5% 39.6% -12.5%
40-60 644-2.3% -6.3% 34.3% -17.2%
60-80 703+3.4% -0.5% 49.2% -16.8%
80-100 You are here322+58.2% +72% 63% +49.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 34.48, at the 80.5th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+28.3%
Win rate 82% Excess +17.9%
200d
-7.5%
Win rate 22.7% Excess -12%
480d
+6.1%
Win rate 40.5% Excess +0.1%
380d
60-day momentum down
+26%
Win rate 91.2% Excess +18.4%
250d
-0.8%
Win rate 47.9% Excess -7.8%
528d
Now
+16.8%
Win rate 48.1% Excess +6.9%
511d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 511 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 16.8%, win rate 48.1%, beat the market by 6.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

64 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.68%, win rate 49.2%, beating the market by -1.14 pts on average.

What does 承啟 do? Company profile

電腦及週邊設備業 上市（臺灣證券交易所）

Overview

承啟科技股份有限公司成立於1986年11月17日，總部位於新北市新店區民權路48-3號3樓，股票代號2425，1998年2月4日上櫃、2000年9月11日上市，屬臺灣證券交易所上市普通股。董事長與總經理均為高樹榮，發言人為李凱莉。公開資料顯示實收資本額約新臺幣9.65億元，已發行普通股96,498,831股，主要經營業務為電腦零組件、週邊設備製造加工及買賣。員工規模公開資料有差異：Yahoo Finance列全職員工266人，104人力銀行列約100人，nStock摘錄集團員工約255人；本研究採『約100至266人』作為公開資訊區間。主要股東方面，鉅亨網揭露前15大董監事經理人持股中，億城國際開發股份有限公司持有24,517,000股；MoneyDJ與產業新聞指出七彩虹集團透過億城國際等公司間接持有承啟，並長期為最大股東與重要合作客戶。歷史沿革上，承啟原以主機板、顯示卡起家，2005年前後曾與華東科技相關集團策略結盟並投入記憶體模組，2012年後淡出記憶體模組並重返主機板、顯示卡、機殼、電源供應器等電腦周邊硬體市場，2013年更名回承啟科技。

Business

承啟的核心業務為顯示卡、主機板、電腦周邊產品、電源供應器，以及AI伺服器或高效能運算相關產品之研發、製造、代工與銷售。年報彙整網站Treelazy揭露114年度產品組合為電腦周邊產品3,096,001千元、占99.55%，其他13,982千元、占0.45%；113年度則為電腦周邊產品3,031,247千元、占99.58%，其他12,733千元、占0.42%。MoneyDJ亦整理2024年營收比重幾乎全部來自電腦週邊產品，主要產品為主機板、顯示卡與伺服器。商業模式以板卡設計、客製化ODM/OEM、品牌與通路合作為主，重要客戶與合作夥伴包括中國大陸電腦DIY品牌七彩虹集團；承啟過去與七彩虹建立產、銷、研一體化戰略合作，替七彩虹代工生產主機板、顯示卡並協助研發、行銷與通路營運。2025年COMPUTEX相關報導指出，承啟也開始以獨立品牌切入商用電腦市場，海外出貨據點集中印度與韓國，其中印度以ODM代工為主、韓國承接政府標案或特殊規格需求。終端應用包括電競PC、DIY組裝市場、商用電腦、政府標案設備、工作站、伺服器、AI運算與高階電源應用。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以三條主軸觀察。第一，顯示卡與主機板需求回溫：公司於2025年股東會表示，受惠電競遊戲市場復甦、Windows 10轉換至Windows 11汰換潮，以及新一代顯示卡AI運算能力提升，預期PC與顯示卡市場有復甦機會；2025年第2季顯卡產品約6至7成轉為新品，有助提升平均單價與毛利率。第二，AI運算與伺服器相關產品：2025年12月法說報導指出，承啟前3季AI伺服器及相關產品營收占比由去年同期44%升至63%，公司逐步降低對傳統消費性電子依賴；若AI伺服器、工作站與高效能運算需求延續，2026至2028年有機會維持產品組合升級。不過，過往天津思騰合力涉及美國出口管制與承啟規劃處分相關股權，代表AI伺服器業務仍受地緣政治、出口管制與客戶結構影響。第三，高階電源供應器：公司新成立Power Team，2025年報導指出以12Vo-3200W CRPS為基礎延伸6款機種，已取得中國CQC安規認證並小批量量產，預期2026年起開始貢獻較實質營收，後續將研發更高功率伺服器電源。主要風險包括：NVIDIA、AMD、Intel等關鍵晶片供應緊張或產品轉換時程延誤；中國消費性市場復甦不如預期；七彩虹或少數大客戶集中度偏高；美中科技管制、關稅與海外設廠成本；板卡產業競爭激烈、毛利率偏低；AI伺服器產品占比提高可能稀釋毛利或增加認證、庫存與應收帳款風險。2027至2028年具體財務預測公開資料不足，以上為基於公司法說、新聞與產業趨勢的方向性研判。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • NVIDIA 美國上市GPU與AI加速晶片供應商；承啟顯示卡、AI伺服器與工作站產品高度依賴其GPU、伺服器晶片與供貨節奏。
  • AMD 美國上市CPU、GPU與平台晶片供應商；承啟主機板產品需支援AMD平台，法說報導提及已在AMD平台實現穩定超頻表現。
  • Intel 美國上市CPU與晶片組供應商；承啟主機板、商用電腦與伺服器產品需支援Intel平台，印度商用客戶亦有採用較舊Intel平台之需求。
  • Hong Kong Colorful Yugong MoneyDJ整理承啟重要原料供應商之一，屬非台股掛牌或未確認掛牌公司；與七彩虹體系可能具關聯，供應晶片或相關零組件。
  • DRAGON YORK MoneyDJ整理為承啟電子類零組件供應商之一，非台股掛牌或未確認掛牌公司。
  • Superway MoneyDJ整理為承啟電子類零組件供應商之一，非台股掛牌或未確認掛牌公司。
  • Glory Rich MoneyDJ整理為承啟電子類零組件供應商之一，非台股掛牌或未確認掛牌公司。
Downstream
  • 七彩虹集團／Colorful 中國大陸電腦DIY硬體品牌商，非台股掛牌；公開資料稱其透過億城國際等間接持有承啟，且為承啟最大股東、重要客戶與戰略合作夥伴，承啟為其代工主機板、顯示卡並協助研發、行銷與通路。
  • 印度大型商用電腦品牌客戶 未揭露公司名稱，非台股掛牌或無法確認；2025年COMPUTEX報導指出承啟為印度客戶提供ODM代工，6月開始正式出貨。
  • 韓國政府標案客戶 未揭露具體機關或公司，非台股掛牌；2025年COMPUTEX報導指出韓國市場以政府標案與特殊規格需求為主。
  • 思騰合力（天津）科技有限公司 中國大陸AI伺服器與高效能運算系統整合商，未上市；承啟2019年透過投資與股權整併納為子公司，後因美國出口管制等因素規劃處分相關持股，關係已具不確定性。

Competitors

  • 華碩 2357 台股上市公司，主機板、顯示卡、電競PC與商用電腦品牌競爭者。
  • 技嘉 2376 台股上市公司，主機板、顯示卡、伺服器與AI伺服器業務競爭者。
  • 微星 2377 台股上市公司，主機板、顯示卡、電競筆電與電競硬體競爭者。
  • 華擎 3515 台股上市公司，主機板、顯示卡、迷你電腦與伺服器板卡競爭者。
  • 麗臺 2465 台股上市公司，繪圖卡、工作站與AI運算相關產品競爭者。
  • 撼訊 6150 台股上櫃公司，PowerColor顯示卡品牌，顯示卡市場競爭者。
  • 映泰 2399 台股上市公司，主機板、顯示卡及電腦周邊硬體競爭者。
  • 青雲 5386 台股上櫃公司，主機板、顯示卡與電腦周邊通路或產品競爭者。
  • 廣達 2382 台股上市公司，AI伺服器與雲端伺服器代工龍頭；在AI伺服器系統層級與承啟部分業務重疊，但規模與客戶結構不同。
  • 緯創 3231 台股上市公司，AI伺服器與資訊產品代工大廠；在伺服器與高效能運算系統整合領域構成廣義競爭。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.