Skip to main content
Free trial

Ask AI to review this stock

Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.

Tell your AI:

Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2618 長榮航. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2618

No install, open FinLab Studio

2618

長榮航 Shipping As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

3 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20% Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 長榮航 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 77Quality 85Growth 67Momentum 66Chips 12

Is 長榮航 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~81% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 6.1%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 4th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 20th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -4.5% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 22.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20%, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.91
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 合庫證券 holds 122,410 lots
  • sellers have 4,791 lots left, ~41 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +15% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 合庫證券 has accumulated 122,410 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 113,741 lots, has sold 25%, 85,016 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.06pp, mid holders +7, retail -2.35pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -111,682 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
合庫證券凱基康和玉山證券永豐金證券兆豐證券
Distributing
美商高盛新加坡商瑞銀摩根大通香港上海匯豐華南永昌-中正統一
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利花旗環球凱基-台北富邦證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 合庫證券 +122,410
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基 +82,133
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 康和 +38,377
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 玉山證券 +36,922
    sold 1%
  • 永豐金證券 +33,410
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 兆豐證券 +20,676
    sold 6%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 85,016 left
    sold 25%· paused recently
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 29,637 left
    sold 33%· paused recently
  • 摩根大通 3,824 left
    sold 84%· paused recently
  • 香港上海匯豐 9,288 left
    sold 51%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌-中正 2,027 left
    sold 80%· ~2 sessions to clear
  • 統一 2,621 left
    sold 27%· paused recently

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -65,672
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 花旗環球 -26,620
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -24,153
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 富邦證券 -19,815
    unclassified
Still selling 4,791 lots ~41 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +83,941 absorbed / -10,393 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -81,352 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 historical occurrences (since 2010-05-31)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 54.2%, Sample 24, Median +0.47%, Excess -1.4%, Beat mkt rate 45.8%；60-day: Win 58.3%, Sample 24, Median +3.15%, Excess +4.92%, Beat mkt rate 58.3%；120-day: Win 54.2%, Sample 24, Median +4.34%, Excess +7.67%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +9.96%

20-day -0.01%
60-day +6.26%
120-day +9.96%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.2%
58.3%
54.2%
Sample
24
24
24
Median
+0.47%
+3.15%
+4.34%
Excess
-1.4%
+4.92%
+7.67%
Beat mkt rate
45.8%
58.3%
50%

Over 24 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.96%, beat the market by 7.67 pts; win rate 54.2%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 22.1%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

44 historical occurrences (since 2010-01-11)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 62.8%, Sample 43, Median +3.17%, Excess +3.92%, Beat mkt rate 65.1%；60-day: Win 69.8%, Sample 43, Median +9.28%, Excess +10.86%, Beat mkt rate 65.1%；120-day: Win 72.1%, Sample 43, Median +14.58%, Excess +16.08%, Beat mkt rate 58.1%

120 days after: historical avg +22.31%

20-day +4.34%
60-day +13.04%
120-day +22.31%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
62.8%
69.8%
72.1%
Sample
43
43
43
Median
+3.17%
+9.28%
+14.58%
Excess
+3.92%
+10.86%
+16.08%
Beat mkt rate
65.1%
65.1%
58.1%

Over 43 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 22.31%, beat the market by 16.08 pts; win rate 72.1%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 7%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

68 historical occurrences (since 2012-08-03)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 47.8%, Sample 67, Median -0.4%, Excess -0.21%, Beat mkt rate 40.3%；60-day: Win 35.8%, Sample 67, Median -1.31%, Excess -0.51%, Beat mkt rate 37.3%；120-day: Win 48.4%, Sample 64, Median -0.57%, Excess +0.44%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%

120 days after: historical avg +4.41%

20-day +0.76%
60-day +2.31%
120-day +4.41%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.8%
35.8%
48.4%
Sample
67
67
64
Median
-0.4%
-1.31%
-0.57%
Excess
-0.21%
-0.51%
+0.44%
Beat mkt rate
40.3%
37.3%
37.5%

Over 64 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.41%, beat the market by 0.44 pts; win rate 48.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here498+12.4% +8.1% 70.5% -13.7%
20-40 807+4.9% +1.9% 54.3% -14.7%
40-60 606+28.3% +5.4% 62.7% +12%
60-80 190+5.8% +2% 57.9% -13%
80-100 118+162.3% +161.2% 100% +133.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 8.07, at the 19.9th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+4.4%
Win rate 59.8% Excess -4.5%
600d
-3.8%
Win rate 38.2% Excess -5.3%
463d
+151.5%
Win rate 77.8% Excess +121.9%
90d
60-day momentum down
+4.1%
Win rate 52.4% Excess -12.5%
618d
-0.2%
Win rate 47.2% Excess -6.5%
515d
+190.5%
Win rate 100% Excess +152.8%
53d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 600 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 4.4%, win rate 59.8%, lagged the market by 4.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

What does 長榮航 do? Company profile

航運業／航空運輸 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2618 對應證券為長榮航空股份有限公司普通股，於台灣證券交易所掛牌上市。公司於民國78年3月奉准登記成立，Yahoo股市揭露成立日為1989/04/07，掛牌日為2001/09/17；總部位於桃園市蘆竹區新南路一段376號。董事長為林寶水，總經理為孫嘉明。公司主要經營國際航線定期及不定期航空客貨運輸業務，股票代號2618。依公司官網截至2026/05/31資料，發行普通股5,400,444仟股，股本總市值新台幣194,686,018仟元；Yahoo股市公司資料列示股本新台幣54,004,443,350元、已發行普通股5,400,444,335股。依長榮航空永續網站2024年資料，全球員工11,770人，其中正式員工11,352人。主要股東名單截至2026/03/31停止過戶日，包括長榮海運401,139,111股、持股7.43%，長榮國際385,196,304股、7.13%，群益台灣精選高息ETF基金專戶292,904,000股、5.42%，元大台灣高股息基金專戶259,423,545股、4.80%，長榮鋼鐵196,202,763股、3.63%，張榮發已歿112,847,371股、2.09%，以及多個ETF、退休基金與外資保管專戶。公司截至2026/03/31主要轉投資包括長榮航太科技55.05%、長榮航勤76.33%、長榮空廚74.8%、長榮空運倉儲72%、EVA Flight Training Academy 100%等。

Business

長榮航空為全服務型國際航空公司，商業模式以客運票務、貨運運輸、客貨機腹艙與貨機艙位銷售、附加服務、聯營／共掛班號、會員與企業差旅服務為主。公司服務航點截至2026/06/01共65個，涵蓋美洲、大洋洲、歐洲、亞洲及中國大陸，部分航點僅提供貨運服務；同時與加拿大航空、中國國際航空、全日空、韓亞航、新加坡航空、泰國國際航空、土耳其航空、立榮航空、美國聯合航空等航空公司有客運聯營合作，貨運合作航空公司包括中國國際貨運航空。營運機隊截至2026/06/01共90架，包括777-300ER 33架、787-9 9架、787-10 13架、A330-300 9架、A321-200 17架、777F貨機9架。以2025年度營運統計與全年合併營收220,333百萬元估算，客運收入140,344百萬元、約占63.7%，貨運收入54,759百萬元、約占24.8%，其他收入約25,230百萬元、約占11.5%；2025年載客13,326,018人、客運承載率77.79%，載貨844,932噸、貨運承載率71.46%。主要客戶包括國際旅遊旅客、商務旅客、企業會員、旅行社與OTA通路、航空貨運承攬業者、跨境電商與高時效貨物客戶；貨運終端需求與AI伺服器、半導體設備、資通訊產品、電子零組件、服飾與高值貨品出貨密切相關。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年已知營運結果顯示，長榮航全年合併營收約2,203.33億元，客運收入約1,403.44億元、貨運收入約547.59億元，維持高營收基期。2026至2028年主要成長動能來自：一、台灣出境旅遊、商務與高端艙等需求維持高檔，北美、歐洲、澳洲與東北亞航線仍是客運收益核心；二、北美航網延伸，公司官網首頁揭露2026/06/26起台北直飛華盛頓特區、每週4班，強化亞美轉運樞紐定位；三、航空貨運受AI伺服器、半導體設備、資通訊產品、跨境電商與高時效貨物支撐，若海運壅塞、地緣風險或關稅提前拉貨延續，貨運單位收益具支撐；四、機隊汰舊換新與產品升級，截至2026/06/01公司仍有787-9 8架、787-10 4架、A350-1000 24架、A321neo 18架待交付，其中A350-1000預計自2027年起陸續交付，有助長程線油耗、座艙產品與維修效率改善；五、777-300ER客艙升級、免費Wi-Fi與豪華經濟艙／商務艙產品升級，有助票價結構與品牌黏著。主要風險與挑戰包括航空燃油價格大幅波動、地緣政治造成繞航或空域受限、美元利率與匯率對租賃及採購成本的影響、波音與空巴供應鏈延遲、新機交付不確定、飛行員與空服員人力供給、機場容量限制、兩岸與國際航權政策、全球景氣轉弱造成商務與貨運需求下修，以及華航、星宇航空及區域航空公司在北美、東北亞與東南亞航線的競爭。2027至2028的核心觀察點為A350-1000導入進度、北美新航點載客率與轉機比重、貨運收益是否能抵銷客運淡旺季波動，以及高油價是否壓縮獲利率。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 波音公司 Boeing 美國上市飛機製造商，供應長榮航空777-300ER、787-9、787-10與777F等機型；非台股掛牌。
  • 空中巴士 Airbus 歐洲上市飛機製造商，供應A330、A321系列並有A350-1000、A321neo待交付；非台股掛牌。
  • 長榮航太科技股份有限公司 2645 台股掛牌公司，長榮航空持股55.05%，提供飛機維修、機體與零組件維修等航空維修服務，是長榮航空關鍵維修與航太服務關係企業。
  • 長榮航勤股份有限公司 未上市關係企業，長榮航空持股76.33%，提供地勤、機坪、行李與航務支援服務。
  • 長榮空廚股份有限公司 未上市關係企業，長榮航空持股74.8%，提供機上餐飲與空廚服務。
  • 長榮空運倉儲股份有限公司 未上市關係企業，長榮航空持股72%，提供航空貨運倉儲與物流支援。
  • 台灣中油股份有限公司 未上市國營油品供應商，為台灣航空燃油市場重要供應來源；長榮航空實際採購比例未於本次資料中確認。
  • 台塑石化股份有限公司 6505 台股上市石化與油品公司，為台灣航空燃油市場供應者之一；與長榮航空具潛在航空燃油供應關係，實際採購比例未於本次資料中確認。
Downstream
  • 一般旅客與商務旅客 非公司實體，為客運票務、艙等升等、附加服務與會員收益的主要需求來源。
  • 企業差旅與企業會員客戶 非單一掛牌公司，透過企業合約、差旅平台與長榮企業會員服務形成穩定商務需求。
  • 雄獅旅行社股份有限公司 2731 台股上市旅遊通路，銷售國際機票、團體旅遊與自由行產品，屬航空客運下游通路之一；未確認為長榮航空主要客戶。
  • 五福旅行社股份有限公司 2745 台股上市櫃旅遊通路，銷售航空旅遊產品，屬客運下游通路之一；未確認為長榮航空主要客戶。
  • 山富國際旅行社股份有限公司 2743 台股上市櫃旅遊通路，銷售機票與旅遊產品，屬客運下游通路之一；未確認為長榮航空主要客戶。
  • 易飛網國際旅行社股份有限公司 2734 台股上市櫃線上旅遊與機票通路，屬客運下游通路之一；未確認為長榮航空主要客戶。
  • 台驊國際投資控股股份有限公司 2636 台股上市物流與貨運承攬業者，屬航空貨運需求端與承攬通路之一；未確認為長榮航空主要客戶。
  • 中菲行國際物流股份有限公司 5609 台股上市櫃國際物流與航空貨運承攬業者，屬貨運下游客戶／通路之一；未確認為長榮航空主要客戶。
  • 捷迅股份有限公司 2643 台股上市櫃物流承攬業者，屬航空貨運需求端與承攬通路之一；未確認為長榮航空主要客戶。
  • 半導體、AI伺服器、資通訊與跨境電商貨主 非單一掛牌公司，為長榮航空貨運高值與高時效貨物需求來源；公司與媒體資料均提到AI、半導體與電子產品需求支撐貨運。

Competitors

  • 中華航空股份有限公司 2610 台股上市國籍全服務航空公司，與長榮航空在北美、歐洲、東北亞、東南亞及貨運市場直接競爭。
  • 星宇航空股份有限公司 2646 台股上市櫃國籍航空公司，持續擴張長程與區域航線，與長榮航空在高端客運、轉機與北美航線競爭。
  • 台灣虎航股份有限公司 6757 台股上市櫃低成本航空公司，主要在東北亞、東南亞短中程休閒航線與長榮航空部分客源競爭。
  • 國泰航空 Cathay Pacific 香港上市航空公司，非台股掛牌；在亞洲轉機、北美與歐洲航線市場與長榮航空競爭。
  • 新加坡航空 Singapore Airlines 新加坡上市航空公司，非台股掛牌；在高端長程客運、轉機樞紐與歐澳航線競爭。
  • 全日空 ANA Holdings 日本上市航空集團，非台股掛牌；在東北亞、北美與星空聯盟網絡中既合作亦競爭。
  • 大韓航空 Korean Air 韓國上市航空公司，非台股掛牌；在東北亞、北美與歐洲轉機市場競爭。
  • FedEx、UPS、DHL等國際快遞與貨運航空業者 多為海外上市或集團公司，非台股掛牌；在高時效貨運、跨境電商與國際航空貨運市場競爭。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.