Ask AI to review this stock
Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.
Tell your AI:
Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2756 聯發國際. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2756
2756
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 聯發國際 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
-
Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 39th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.2%.
-
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 27th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 26th percentile.
-
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -2.6% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -27% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 元大-內湖 has accumulated 161 lots since the start (sold 1%), holding.
- Main distributor 國泰證券 peaked at 19 lots, has sold 26%, 14 left, ~28 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.01pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -64 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 元大-內湖 +161
- 第一金-忠孝 +58
- 合庫-三重 +47
- 元大-西屯 +42
- 凱基-南崁 +38
- 凱基-中壢 +36
Distributing
- 國泰證券 14 left
- 永豐金-萬盛 3 left
- 中國信託 4 left
- 永豐金-羅東 6 left
- 統一-三重 1 left
- 富邦-樹林 2 left
Desks
- 富邦-新店 -160
- 元大-北屯 -53
- 統一-敦南 -51
- 第一金-安和 -42
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 20-40 You are here | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 40-60 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 60-80 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 80-100 | 80 | -18.2% | -15.2% | 26.2% | -103.7% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 15.36, at the 26.5th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
(0d)
(0d)
(0d)
(0d)
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
27 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.11%, win rate 35%, beating the market by -12.73 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
7 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.58%, win rate 33.3%, beating the market by -7.22 pts on average.
What does 聯發國際 do? Company profile
Overview
聯發國際餐飲事業股份有限公司為上櫃普通股營運公司，證券代號2756。公司設立於2004年2月26日，總部位於新北市汐止區新台五路一段95號18樓之7，主要從事茶飲品牌全球連鎖加盟及南洋美食餐飲營運。公司於2022年1月14日上櫃；董事長為鄭凱隆，總經理／代理總經理為陳聖中。公開資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣245,975,840元，已發行普通股24,597,584股。104人力銀行資料列示員工人數約200人，屬求職平台揭露值，非最新法定申報數。主要股東名單截至2025年3月31日包括聯煌事業15.02%、李淑芬11.29%、聯宏事業6.92%、聯宸事業6.91%、聯盛事業6.91%、鄭凱隆6.60%、聯齊事業4.07%、崔爾珈2.69%、聯珺投資2.68%、鄭百辰2.49%。
Business
公司核心商業模式為餐飲品牌總部、連鎖加盟、區域代理、直營門市與物料供應平台。主要品牌包括Sharetea歇腳亭、UG樂己與MAMAK檔星馬料理。Sharetea為1992年起源的手搖茶飲品牌，2009年起加速海外市場，公開資料稱已布局4至5大洲、多國與超過500家門市，美國為重要市場；UG為2024年7月推出的新時尚茶飲品牌，主打AI時尚門市、花香茶飲與五感體驗；MAMAK檔為南洋餐食品牌，產品含海南雞飯、椰漿飯、叻沙、咖哩等。2025年12月法說會摘要列示營收主要四大來源：直營門市、物料貿易、加盟金／每月特許權費及服務費、其他收入。2025年前三季營收結構為直營營收212,892千元、25%；物料貿易349,952千元、42%；加盟服務273,072千元、32%；其他收入4,212千元、1%；合計840,128千元。2025全年合併營收1,171,880千元，年增69.56%，創歷史新高，成長主因為UG展店與Sharetea穩定經營。2024年銷售地區據MoneyDJ整理為內銷16%、外銷84%，美洲占5成以上、亞洲占28%，顯示終端市場與加盟代理高度偏海外。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年已由UG與Sharetea雙品牌推升營收，全年合併營收約11.72億元、年增近70%。2026年公司將美國列為重點衝刺市場，UG在美國已開出洛杉磯與西雅圖門市，並規劃聖荷西、溫哥華、休士頓、鳳凰城、聖地牙哥等地，公開報導稱美國預約加盟訂單超過30家；台灣UG於2026年1月續開4家，並預估年底全台店數突破100店。法說會提出五大成長引擎：打造全球茶飲平台、問鼎新時尚茶飲王、建立餐食事業佈建、擴大全球大供應鏈、投資併購合盟；並稱2026年起營運仍有逐季改善機會。2027至2028年可觀察UG台灣三年目標至少200店、UG海外五大市場布局、Sharetea美國朝200店推進、Sharetea Express科技賦能與新餐食品牌落地。主要風險包括：快速展店造成前期門市建置、人力與管銷費用上升；海外加盟執行與區域代理管理風險；茶葉、珍珠、肉品、海鮮、生鮮蔬菜、進口醬料等原物料成本與匯率波動；食品安全與品牌聲譽風險；手搖飲市場競爭激烈、品牌熱度與單店營收可能回落；美國與海外市場法規、勞動成本、租金與供應鏈物流風險。2027至2028具體營收或獲利數字未見公司公開量化指引，以上為依公司展店目標與策略之定性推估。
Supply Chain
- 茶葉供應商 主要原物料之一；公開資料僅揭露茶葉為重要原料，未確認具名供應商，供應商多為未公開或非台股掛牌企業。
- 珍珠／粉圓及飲品配料供應商 供應手搖飲配料；公開資料未揭露具名供應商，無法確認台股上市櫃對象。
- 肉品、海鮮、生鮮蔬菜及進口醬料供應商 主要供MAMAK檔與餐食業務使用；公開資料僅列示原料類別，未揭露具名供應商。
- 門市設備、AI智能化茶飲設備與POS／資訊系統供應商 UG強調AI智能化門市與科技賦能，相關設備與系統供應商未由公司公開具名揭露。
- Sharetea海外區域代理與加盟主 核心下游客戶與合作夥伴；涵蓋美國、加拿大、澳洲、香港、杜拜、捷克、馬來西亞、新加坡、印度、墨西哥等市場，多為海外或未上市加盟／代理業者。
- UG台灣與海外加盟主 UG展店與加盟服務、物料貿易、權利金收入來源；台灣與海外預約加盟訂單為2025至2026主要成長動能，具名加盟主未公開。
- 直營門市終端消費者 公司直營門市銷售對象，屬個人消費者而非掛牌公司。
- MAMAK檔餐食品牌消費者與可能加盟／合作通路 餐食事業下游客群；截至公開資料以台灣門市與餐食品牌營運為主。
Competitors
- 六角國際 2732 台股上櫃餐飲集團，旗下Chatime日出茶太為全球手搖茶飲品牌，與Sharetea／UG在國際手搖飲加盟、物料供應及品牌代理市場競爭。
- 美食-KY 2723 台股上市餐飲集團，旗下85度C具咖啡、烘焙與海外連鎖門市；MoneyDJ列為聯發國際競爭對手之一。
- 50嵐 台灣大型手搖飲品牌，未上市櫃；MoneyDJ列為競爭對手之一。
- 清心福全 台灣大型手搖飲連鎖品牌，未上市櫃；MoneyDJ列為競爭對手之一。
- CoCo都可 國際手搖飲品牌，營運主體未於台股上市櫃；MoneyDJ列為競爭對手之一。
- COMEBUY 台灣手搖飲品牌，未確認台股上市櫃；MoneyDJ列為競爭對手之一。
- 喜茶HEYTEA 中國新茶飲品牌，未於台股上市櫃；法說會摘要將UG與喜茶等新時尚茶飲品牌作市場對標。
- MOLLY TEA 中國新茶飲品牌，未於台股上市櫃；法說會摘要將其列為新時尚茶飲市場對標品牌。
Sources（13）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.