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2851

中再保 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

2 active signals

252d high Revenue ≥20%

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 中再保 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 中再保 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~88% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 8.1%.
Valuation is low.PE is in the 3th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 10th percentile.
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 14.9% of volume (net buy).
Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 103.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.85

BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
台灣摩根士丹利 holds 9,950 lots
sellers have 1,307 lots left, ~54 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +48% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 9,950 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
Main distributor 康和 peaked at 1,260 lots, has sold 85%, 195 left, ~2 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.84pp, mid holders -5, retail -2.43pp — concentration shifting upward.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -459 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛摩根大通新加坡商瑞銀凱基-台北花旗環球

Distributing

康和凱基-竹科兆豐證券中國信託-忠孝統一-屏東凱基-基隆

Desks

own scale

元大證券新光凱基-站前兆豐-忠孝

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

台灣摩根士丹利 +9,950

sold 0%· still adding
美商高盛 +7,317

sold 1%· still adding
摩根大通 +5,535

sold 10%
新加坡商瑞銀 +2,997

sold 6%· still adding
凱基-台北 +2,728

sold 24%· still adding
花旗環球 +2,050

sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

康和 195 left

sold 85%· ~2 sessions to clear
凱基-竹科 412 left

sold 57%· ~28 sessions to clear
兆豐證券 367 left

sold 60%· ~7 sessions to clear
中國信託-忠孝 48 left

sold 90%· paused recently
統一-屏東 171 left

sold 58%· paused recently
凱基-基隆 67 left

sold 77%· paused recently

Desks

元大證券 -3,627

unclassified
新光 -2,765

unclassified
凱基-站前 -2,395

unclassified
兆豐-忠孝 -1,749

unclassified

Still selling 1,307 lots ~54 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +7,997 absorbed / -1,912 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -27 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

37 historical occurrences (since 2009-10-01)

120 days after: historical avg +8.45%

20-day +1.87%

60-day +5.22%

120-day +8.45%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

70.3%

68.6%

68.8%

Sample

Median

+1.85%

+5.85%

+8.73%

Excess

+1.2%

+0.17%

+0.72%

Beat mkt rate

62.2%

48.6%

56.2%

Over 32 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.45%, beat the market by 0.72 pts; win rate 68.8%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 103.16%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

41 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)

120 days after: historical avg +5.93%

20-day +0.17%

60-day +6.99%

120-day +5.93%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

47.1%

58.8%

62.5%

Sample

Median

-0.38%

+1.86%

+9.02%

Excess

-0.51%

+1.54%

-1.7%

Beat mkt rate

44.1%

43.8%

Over 32 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.93%, lagged the market by 1.7 pts; win rate 62.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +11% Now

20-40 +14.7%

40-60 +7%

60-80 +18.4%

80-100 +27.2%

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here	1008	+11%	+7%	67.3%	-2.6%
20-40	772	+14.7%	+19.9%	76.6%	-1.6%
40-60	664	+7%	+10.1%	75.3%	-7.2%
60-80	351	+18.4%	+15%	98%	-0.2%
80-100	245	+27.2%	+24.9%	100%	-4.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 7.83, at the 9.8th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

Now

+7%

Win rate 67.4% Excess +0.4%

1045d

+5.2%

Win rate 66.6% Excess -0.4%

754d

+12.4%

Win rate 85.4% Excess -2.2%

287d

60-day momentum down

+2.6%

Win rate 57.1% Excess -4.9%

483d

+8%

Win rate 76.3% Excess -6.2%

317d

+9.1%

Win rate 82.8% Excess -2.5%

274d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1045 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 7%, win rate 67.4%, beat the market by 0.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

55 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.42%, win rate 57.4%, beating the market by -1.27 pts on average.

What does 中再保 do? Company profile

金融保險業／再保險業台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2851 對應中央再保險股份有限公司，英文名稱 Central Reinsurance Corporation，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，主要業務為再保險。公司總部位於台北市南京東路二段53號12樓，統一編號11081991。官方法說資料列示設立日期為1968年10月31日，公開股市資料亦列示公司登記成立日為1968年6月12日；上市日期為2000年7月6日，2002年7月完成民營化。2026年5月25日股東會後董事會推選鍾志宏擔任董事長，並由林育德升任總經理；此人事案公開公告稱新任生效日待主管機關核准後生效。2025年法說資料列示實收資本額約新台幣80億389萬元、員工人數167人；2025年英文年報列示2025年底實收資本額新台幣8,003,888千元、股東權益分配前新台幣21,706,032千元、2025年營收新台幣22.90億元、稅後淨利新台幣29.32619億元、EPS 3.66元、ROE 13.8%。2026年3月27日主要股東名單顯示：長榮國際股份有限公司持股27.33%、財政部9.37%、長榮海運股份有限公司6.15%、長榮國際儲運股份有限公司4.56%、長榮航空股份有限公司3.58%、匯豐台灣商銀受託保管摩根士丹利國際投資專戶1.00%、力宸投資0.95%、林東祥0.92%、匯豐台灣商銀受託保管英商高盛國際投資專戶0.79%、佳元投資0.77%。信用評等方面，2025年年報稱 A.M. Best、S&P Global Ratings 及中華信用評等給予中再保 A 與 twAA+ 等級且展望穩定。

Business

中再保是台灣唯一以本土為基礎的專業再保險公司，承受國內、外保險業之財產及人身再保險業務，提供比例再保險、超額賠款再保險、合約再保、臨時再保，以及核保、理賠、風險控管、費率與商品設計等諮詢服務。經營險種包括財產保險的火險、住宅地震險、船體險、貨物險、航空險、漁船險、任意汽車險、強制汽機車險、工程險、責任險與其他財產險，以及人身保險的人壽、傷害、健康險。2024年再保費收入比重為國內產物保險64%、國外產物保險19%、國內人身保險17%、國外人身保險0.4%；依險種比重為車險36%、火險22%、壽險14%、其他財產險11%、工程險5%、運輸險4%、健康險4%、傷害險4%。商業模式是向原保險公司承接風險，收取再保費與投資浮存資金，透過承保紀律、風險分散、準備金管理與投資收益創造獲利；主要客戶為國內外產險與壽險公司，但公司公開資料未逐一揭露客戶名單。2025年毛簽保費為新台幣21,004,017千元，投資收益為新台幣2,775,630千元，年底準備金總額為新台幣34,170,825千元。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年已公布結果顯示，中再保受惠於嚴謹核保、良好投資績效與風險控管，營收與獲利均超過目標，稅後淨利創近年高點。2026年公司營運計畫以強化永續治理、資本結構、資金運用效率、客戶服務、國內市場深耕、國際業務穩健擴張與風險管理系統為主，並明確表示國際業務追求核保利潤提升，而非單純追求再保費收入成長。產業面，官方法說指出國內產險市場2024年簽單保費年增10.9%，主要由車險帶動，火險、工程險與責任險亦為成長來源；壽險市場則可能受降息循環、外幣保單、利變型壽險、分紅保單及保障型商品發展帶動。2025至2028年的主要成長動能包括：台灣保險滲透與保障型商品需求、產險費率與車險／火險／工程險保費成長、氣候變遷與巨災風險提高帶來的風險移轉需求、國際業務分散地理集中風險、資本基礎提升後承保能量擴大，以及AI、資料分析、精算與巨災模型在核保和風險累積管理上的應用。主要風險包括：全球再保市場資本充足造成價格趨軟、自然災害與次級風險損失頻率及嚴重度上升、地緣政治與關稅政策不確定、金融市場波動影響投資收益、利率與匯率變動、台灣新會計制度及清償能力規範接軌壓力、單一集團股東色彩及國內市場集中度。2027至2028年公司未提供量化財測，較合理的基準情境是維持審慎承保、強化資本與風險管理，在硬市場轉軟後以獲利品質優先；上行情境來自巨災風險意識推升再保需求與投資收益穩定，下行情境則來自再保費率下滑、重大天災損失或金融市場回檔。

Supply Chain

Upstream

全球再保與轉再保市場提供轉分保承接、承保容量、風險分散與國際再保定價基準；成員多為海外再保公司或外商分公司，非台股掛牌。
A.M. Best、S&P Global Ratings、中華信用評等提供保險財務實力與信用評等，影響中再保取得國內外業務、轉分保合作與資本市場信任度；非台股掛牌供應商。
保險經紀、精算、巨災模型與資料服務商提供再保安排、風險模型、損失資料、精算與市場資訊服務；公開資料未揭露固定供應商名單，常見國際業者如 Aon、Marsh McLennan、Verisk 等均非台股掛牌。
長榮國際股份有限公司 2026年3月27日主要股東，持股27.33%，為最大股東；未上市公司，屬資本與治理面關係企業。
長榮海運股份有限公司 2603 2026年3月27日主要股東，持股6.15%；台股上市公司，屬長榮集團關係企業。
長榮國際儲運股份有限公司 2607 2026年3月27日主要股東，持股4.56%；台股上市公司，屬長榮集團關係企業。
長榮航空股份有限公司 2618 2026年3月27日主要股東，持股3.58%；台股上市公司，屬長榮集團關係企業。

Downstream

國內產物保險公司中再保主要下游客戶群之一，承接其車險、火險、工程險、責任險、住宅地震險等再保險需求；公司未公開逐一揭露客戶名單。
國內人身保險公司中再保下游客戶群之一，承接壽險、健康險、傷害險再保需求；公司未公開逐一揭露客戶名單。
富邦金融控股股份有限公司 2881 旗下富邦產險、富邦人壽屬台灣主要保險業者，為中再保潛在或典型再保需求來源；未由中再保公開確認個別交易金額。
國泰金融控股股份有限公司 2882 旗下國泰產險、國泰人壽屬台灣主要保險業者，為中再保潛在或典型再保需求來源；未由中再保公開確認個別交易金額。
臺灣產物保險股份有限公司 2832 台股上市產險公司，屬產險再保市場可能下游客戶；未由中再保公開確認個別交易金額。
新光產物保險股份有限公司 2850 台股上市產險公司，屬產險再保市場可能下游客戶；未由中再保公開確認個別交易金額。
兆豐金融控股股份有限公司 2886 旗下兆豐產險屬台灣產險業者，為再保需求來源之一；未由中再保公開確認個別交易金額。
第一金融控股股份有限公司 2892 旗下第一產物保險屬台灣產險業者，為再保需求來源之一；未由中再保公開確認個別交易金額。

Competitors

英屬百慕達商美國再保險股份有限公司臺灣分公司金管會保險局列示的台灣再保險公司之一；外商台灣分公司，非台股掛牌。
德商科隆再保險股份有限公司臺灣分公司金管會保險局列示的台灣再保險公司之一；General Reinsurance AG Taiwan Branch，屬 Gen Re／Berkshire Hathaway 相關再保體系，非台股掛牌。
慕尼黑再保險全球大型再保險人，海外上市公司，參與國際與亞洲再保市場競爭，非台股掛牌。
瑞士再保險全球大型再保險人，海外上市公司，參與國際與亞洲再保市場競爭，非台股掛牌。
漢諾威再保險全球大型再保險人，海外上市公司，在台灣設有台北聯絡處，非台股掛牌。
SCOR 法國再保險集團，全球再保市場競爭者，海外上市公司，非台股掛牌。
Reinsurance Group of America 美國人身再保險集團，海外上市公司，非台股掛牌。
Korean Re 韓國再保險公司，亞洲再保市場競爭者，海外上市公司，非台股掛牌。

Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.