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3441

聯一光電 Optoelectronics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 聯一光電 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 23Quality 61Growth 83Momentum 96Chips 58

Is 聯一光電 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 65th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.3%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 85th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 86th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.4% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 46.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.25
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 美商高盛 holds 918 lots
  • sellers have 247 lots left, ~16 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +139% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 918 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 國泰證券 peaked at 516 lots, has sold 80%, 103 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.02pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.77pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -467 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美商高盛康和摩根大通元大證券港商野村群益金鼎-高雄
Distributing
國泰證券台灣摩根士丹利富邦-台北台新統一玉山-台南
Desks
own scale
美好-蘆洲凱基-中港富邦-公益華南永昌-台中
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美商高盛 +918
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 康和 +778
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +757
    sold 17%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +551
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 港商野村 +404
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎-高雄 +323
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 國泰證券 103 left
    sold 80%· paused recently
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 54 left
    sold 80%· paused recently
  • 富邦-台北 103 left
    sold 32%· paused recently
  • 台新 65 left
    sold 53%· paused recently
  • 統一 28 left
    sold 75%· paused recently
  • 玉山-台南 16 left
    sold 85%· paused recently

Desks

  • 美好-蘆洲 -1,494
    unclassified
  • 凱基-中港 -719
    unclassified
  • 富邦-公益 -595
    unclassified
  • 華南永昌-台中 -413
    unclassified
Still selling 247 lots ~16 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +5,727 absorbed / -422 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -218 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

15 historical occurrences (since 2014-07-10)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 46.7%, Sample 15, Median -4.62%, Excess +5.7%, Beat mkt rate 46.7%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 14, Median -1.6%, Excess -0.23%, Beat mkt rate 28.6%；120-day: Win 50%, Sample 14, Median -2.83%, Excess +8.87%, Beat mkt rate 35.7%

120 days after: historical avg +15.87%

20-day +6.72%
60-day +1.8%
120-day +15.87%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
46.7%
50%
50%
Sample
15
14
14
Median
-4.62%
-1.6%
-2.83%
Excess
+5.7%
-0.23%
+8.87%
Beat mkt rate
46.7%
28.6%
35.7%

Over 14 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 15.87%, beat the market by 8.87 pts; win rate 50%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 46.18%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

70 historical occurrences (since 2010-10-04)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 52.4%, Sample 63, Median +1.08%, Excess +3.51%, Beat mkt rate 49.2%；60-day: Win 54.1%, Sample 61, Median +0.69%, Excess +4.42%, Beat mkt rate 45.9%；120-day: Win 50.8%, Sample 59, Median +1.89%, Excess +6.07%, Beat mkt rate 39%

120 days after: historical avg +12.04%

20-day +4.83%
60-day +8.09%
120-day +12.04%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.4%
54.1%
50.8%
Sample
63
61
59
Median
+1.08%
+0.69%
+1.89%
Excess
+3.51%
+4.42%
+6.07%
Beat mkt rate
49.2%
45.9%
39%

Over 59 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.04%, beat the market by 6.07 pts; win rate 50.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 13Insufficient data
20-40 101+17.6% -2% 44.6% -10.9%
40-60 368+14.7% +0.6% 52.4% -27.2%
60-80 520+17% +9.2% 65.6% -19.8%
80-100 You are here448+58.8% +20.5% 67.2% +32.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 78.16, at the 85.9th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+6.6%
Win rate 86.5% Excess -10.9%
37d
+5.2%
Win rate 42.2% Excess -6.2%
211d
Now
+19.2%
Win rate 42.8% Excess +2.2%
451d
60-day momentum down
Insufficient data
(26d)
+15.5%
Win rate 59.3% Excess -13.4%
307d
+19.8%
Win rate 51.9% Excess +6.8%
538d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 451 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 19.2%, win rate 42.8%, beat the market by 2.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

43 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.74%, win rate 53.7%, beating the market by +0.84 pts on average.

What does 聯一光電 do? Company profile

光電業；光學材料／光學玻璃毛胚；櫃買產業鏈分類為電腦及週邊設備 > 光學鏡片、鏡頭 上櫃

Overview

3441 對應證券為聯一光電，屬上櫃普通股，非 ETF/ETN/權證。公司設立於 1984 年 3 月 27 日，原名聯一光學工業股份有限公司，2020 年 3 月董事會決議更名為聯一光電股份有限公司；總部與工廠登記於南投縣草屯鎮稻香路 6-4 號。董事長為陳忠政，總經理為陳忠禮，發言人為陳忠政。2005 年 5 月興櫃掛牌，2010 年 10 月股票上櫃掛牌。實收資本額約新台幣 400,399,200 元。員工規模依 113 年報截至 2024-04-23 為 146 人，Goodinfo 顯示 2025 年全體員工平均年薪約 103.2 萬元。主要股東依 113 年報 2024-03-31 資料包括陳忠政 6.03%、廣曆投資 3.62%、今國光學工業 2.82%、陳忠禮 2.69%、郭美麗 2.14%、林恩平 2.12%、尤惠民 1.77%、林恩舟 1.25%、洪巧芸 1.12%、陳蘇阿邊 0.97%。公司歷史沿革包括 1989 年遷廠至草屯現址並建立鏡片自動成型生產線、1998 年取得 ISO9001、2001 年與日本小原光學及日本河野光學策略聯盟設立東莞生產據點、2005 年與德國 SCHOTT 策略聯盟設立無錫聯一肖特光學，後於 2017 年取得 SCHOTT 持股並更名無錫聯一光學，2018 至 2019 年處分及清算無錫公司。2025 年合併營收 425,484 仟元、年增 28.48%；營業毛利 137,395 仟元、營業淨利 59,512 仟元、合併本期淨利 43,794 仟元、EPS 1.06 元；2026Q1 合併營收 113,335 仟元、歸屬母公司業主淨利 18,741 仟元、EPS 0.47 元；2026 年 1-5 月累計營收 213,863 仟元、年增 33.54%。

Business

聯一光電為光學上游材料廠，核心業務是各種光學玻璃、光學玻璃毛胚之製造、加工與買賣，以及精密光學與部分鋁製品加工、陽極表面處理。2025 年產品組合為光學玻璃毛胚 392,383 仟元、占 92.22%；光學玻璃 1,753 仟元、占 0.41%；其他 31,348 仟元、占 7.37%。光學玻璃毛胚主要應用於醫療檢測儀器、投影機、一般監視器、工業檢測儀器、顯微鏡、天文望遠鏡、車載監控器等鏡片；近年公司亦揭露非破壞性水果甜度計，以及與工研院合作的光學相關產品、雙重殺菌空氣濾清器技轉等自有品牌方向。商業模式以接單客製化光學玻璃毛胚為主，依下游客戶指定玻璃材質與規格進行切片、重量分類、成形、保溫徐冷、回火、折射率與應力檢測後出貨；主要銷售區域高度集中亞洲，112 年度亞洲銷售占比 99%，國內占 1%。年報揭露 112 年度單一主要銷貨客戶 A 公司占銷貨 12.57%，但未揭露公司名稱；近期新聞指出東莞生產重鎮客戶數已由早期十多家成長至 200 多家，主要出貨給中國大陸鏡片加工廠，終端應用包括車載、醫療內視鏡、軍工、無人機、工業檢測、自動化系統與機器人。2025 年新聞稱車載鏡片營收占比約 15%，醫療內視鏡約 15% 至 20%，其餘為少量多樣的儀器、無人機、軍工、工業檢測及自動化等應用；此為媒體採訪揭露，非年報完整產品別拆分。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年公司營收已恢復成長，合併營收 4.25 億元、年增 28.48%，主因光學玻璃毛胚需求回升與新興應用擴大，但 EPS 1.06 元低於 2024 年 1.40 元，顯示營收成長與獲利槓桿仍受匯率、產品組合、費用或營業外項目影響。2026 年截至 5 月累計營收年增 33.54%，董事長陳忠政受訪表示受惠醫療、無人機、車載等需求與歐洲光學大廠合作機會，2026 年營運希望優於 2025 年，法人估全年營收雙位數成長；公司不回應法人財務預估。2025-2028 年主要成長動能包括：一、ADAS、車載環景與自駕感測增加單車鏡頭數，帶動車載光學材料需求；二、醫療內視鏡、眼科檢測與工業檢測儀器需求穩定，利於高品質玻璃毛胚；三、無人機、低空經濟、機器人與自動化設備導入光學感測，創造少量多樣訂單；四、與德國 SCHOTT、日本小原等材料商維持合作，滿足歐美客戶指定材料與交期；五、持續製程改善、自動化、提高良率與縮短交期，並與工研院合作朝終端產品與自有品牌延伸。主要風險包括：一、中國大陸低價毛胚廠競爭，壓縮價格與產品週期；二、光學玻璃原料與稀土相關材料價格波動；三、客戶集中在亞洲與中國鏡片加工鏈，受中國景氣、匯率與地緣政治影響；四、下游客戶外移與在地交貨要求，需維持東莞產能、品質與交期；五、公司規模小、流動性與單一產品依賴高，若車載、醫療或新興應用放量不如預期，營收波動會較大；六、2025 至 2028 的量化展望無公司正式財測，除已公告財務與媒體訪談外，其餘為依產業趨勢與公司策略推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • SCHOTT 集團／德國肖特 光學玻璃主要原料來源之一；年報列示供應狀況良好，且公司曾與德國 SCHOTT 建立策略夥伴以滿足歐美客戶對 SCHOTT 材料需求；非台股掛牌。
  • 成都光明光電股份有限公司 光學玻璃主要原料來源之一；年報列示供應狀況良好；中國大陸公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 小原集團／OHARA 光學玻璃主要原料來源之一，也為國際光學玻璃材料與毛胚競爭者；日本企業，非台股掛牌。
  • 台灣小原光學股份有限公司 年報稱台灣光學玻璃材料廠商除聯一外尚有日資台灣小原；屬上游／同業材料供應體系，未上市櫃。
  • 尤利特 年報列為光學玻璃主要原料來源之一；未查得台股上市櫃代號。
  • 光硝子 HIKARI 年報列為光學玻璃主要原料來源之一，國際知名光學玻璃材料廠商；日本企業，非台股掛牌。
  • U-SHOW 年報列為光學玻璃毛胚主要來源且供應狀況良好；應為集團或關係供應體系，未查得台股上市櫃代號。
Downstream
  • 亞洲光學股份有限公司 3019 年報產業鏈表列為中游光學元件、模組、鏡頭與鏡片組主要廠商；屬潛在或產業下游客群，年報未明示為聯一實際客戶。
  • 大立光電股份有限公司 3008 年報產業鏈表列為中游光學元件主要廠商；屬光學鏡頭／鏡片下游應用鏈，年報未明示為聯一實際客戶。
  • 今國光學工業股份有限公司 6209 年報產業鏈表列為中游光學元件主要廠商，且為聯一主要股東之一；年報未明示為聯一實際客戶。
  • 玉晶光電股份有限公司 3406 年報產業鏈表列為中游光學元件主要廠商；屬光學鏡頭與鏡片組下游應用鏈。
  • 揚明光學股份有限公司 3504 年報產業鏈表列為中游光學引擎、光學元件相關主要廠商；屬潛在下游客群。
  • 佳凌科技股份有限公司 4976 年報產業鏈表列為中游光學元件主要廠商；屬潛在下游客群。
  • 先進光電科技股份有限公司 3362 年報產業鏈表列為中游光學元件主要廠商；屬潛在下游客群。
  • 中國大陸鏡片加工廠 媒體採訪稱聯一新興應用主要出貨給中國大陸鏡片加工廠，東莞生產重鎮客戶已逾 200 家；多數未具名且非台股掛牌。
  • 醫療內視鏡、車載鏡頭、無人機、工業檢測與機器人終端品牌／系統商 終端應用與最終需求來源；公司多透過鏡片加工廠與光學元件廠供應，具名終端客戶未公開。

Competitors

  • 台灣小原光學股份有限公司 年報稱國內光學玻璃材料廠商除聯一外尚有日資台灣小原；未上市櫃。
  • 日本小原／OHARA 國際光學玻璃材料與毛胚主要競爭者；日本上市公司但非台股掛牌，stock_id 依規則填 null。
  • HOYA／保谷 年報列為國際知名光學玻璃材料廠商；日本上市公司但非台股掛牌。
  • 光硝子／HIKARI 年報列為國際知名光學玻璃材料廠商；日本企業，非台股掛牌。
  • SCHOTT／首德、肖特 年報列為國際光學玻璃材料廠商且為聯一材料合作夥伴；德國企業，非台股掛牌。
  • 成都光明光電股份有限公司 年報列為中國大陸大型毛胚廠與原料來源之一；中國大陸公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 晶華集團 年報列為中國大陸大型毛胚廠之一；非台股掛牌，與台股 2707 晶華酒店無關。
Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.