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3454

晶睿 Electronics As of 2026-07-29 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 晶睿 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
估值 30品質 42成長 27動能 50籌碼 50

Is 晶睿 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • 獲利能力偏弱。營業利益率僅勝過全市場約 36% 的個股。最新一季 ROE 約 1.9%。

  • 估值偏貴。本益比落在全市場第 88 百分位，比多數個股貴。以自身歷史看，目前本益比約在第 100 百分位。

  • 營收衰退。最新月營收年增率約 -21.1%，較去年同月下滑。

Chip flow

Bullish +0.63
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 元大-土城 holds 521 lots
  • sellers have 8 lots left, ~10 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +0% · branches to 2026-03-18· TDCC to 2026-04-24

  • Largest holder 元大-土城 has accumulated 521 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 元大-大雅 peaked at 11 lots, has sold 45%, 6 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.01pp, mid holders +3, retail -2.12pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -60 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-土城群益金鼎-大甲元富-城東國泰-新莊凱基-大直美商高盛
Distributing
元大-大雅富邦-仁愛台新-三民元大-基隆臺銀-金山富邦-高雄
Desks
own scale
富邦-陽明凱基-文心元大-四維摩根大通
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-土城 +521
    sold 0%
  • 群益金鼎-大甲 +278
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元富-城東 +207
    sold 1%
  • 國泰-新莊 +189
    sold 0%
  • 凱基-大直 +187
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +173
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 元大-大雅 6 left
    sold 45%· paused recently
  • 富邦-仁愛 3 left
    sold 70%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 台新-三民 2 left
    sold 78%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 元大-基隆 1 left
    sold 80%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 臺銀-金山 3 left
    sold 40%· paused recently
  • 富邦-高雄 2 left
    sold 50%· ~10 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 富邦-陽明 -241
    unclassified
  • 凱基-文心 -159
    unclassified
  • 元大-四維 -97
    unclassified
  • 摩根大通 -80
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 8 lots ~10 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,476 absorbed / -18 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -7 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

估值位階與後續報酬

把這檔股票每天的本益比，換算成「截至當天為止的自身歷史百分位」，再看不同估值位階之後 240 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 142+29.8% +18.2% 90.1% +13.8%
20-40 483+12.5% +9.3% 77.6% -0.7%
40-60 682-1.2% -8.8% 39.6% -14.4%
60-80 496+10.7% +3% 57.1% -5.4%
80-100 You are here1163+17.4% -9.1% 39.5% +2.1%

百分位以當天為止的自身歷史滾動計算（expanding），不含未來資訊；前瞻報酬為還原股價 240 交易日。樣本日重疊，僅供分布參考。

目前本益比約 80.81，落在自身歷史第 100.0 百分位，屬於 80-100 區間。

估值 × 動能的歷史對照

把自身歷史的每一天，依估值位階（本益比自身歷史三分位）與 60 日動能方向分成六格，看各情境之後 120 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

Valuation
Momentum
便宜
中等
昂貴
向上
+25.1%
Win rate 92% Excess +17.3%
174d
+3.7%
Win rate 51.1% Excess -4.2%
526d
Now
+13.8%
Win rate 44.9% Excess +5.1%
857d
向下
+14.4%
Win rate 80.1% Excess +7.8%
251d
-3.7%
Win rate 39.6% Excess -8.5%
523d
-1.1%
Win rate 34.2% Excess -9.1%
755d

Currently in “昂貴（自身歷史後 1/3） × 60 日動能向上”: across 857 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 13.8%, win rate 44.9%, beat the market by 5.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

這個訊號在全市場是否站得住腳

「月營收年增率 ≥ 20%」過去 243 個月，每月平均約 404 檔個股符合條件；這些個股之後 60 個交易日的還原股價報酬，等權平均為 6.99%，平均贏過大盤 2.32 個百分點，在 64.2% 的月份中跑贏發行量加權股價報酬指數。

每月對全市場符合訊號的股票取等權平均前瞻 60 日還原報酬，再對月份平均；超額相對發行量加權股價報酬指數

目前未成立的訊號（歷史統計供參）

這些訊號現在沒有發生，列出歷史樣本以供對照

股價創 252 日新高（突破日）

Pending

還原股價首次站上過去 252 個交易日最高；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

27 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.04%, win rate 59.3%, beating the market by +3.48 pts on average.

月營收年增率 ≥ 20%（公告截止日起算）

Pending

單月營收年增率達 20% 以上；事件日為公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到未公告資訊

101 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.49%, win rate 54.5%, beating the market by +6.05 pts on average.

外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日

Pending

外資（不含自營商）買賣超連續 5 日為正，事件日為第 5 日；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

57 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.42%, win rate 43.6%, beating the market by -3.73 pts on average.

方法與限制

  • 所有報酬以還原股價（etl:adj_close）計算，已還原除權息與股票分割。
  • 超額報酬以發行量加權股價報酬指數（含息）為基準。
  • 估值位階與分位統計以「截至當天為止的自身歷史」滾動計算，不使用未來資訊。
  • 營收訊號的事件日對齊到公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到尚未公開的資訊。
  • 事件樣本之間日期可能重疊，統計僅描述歷史分布，樣本數較少時參考價值有限。

本頁內容為歷史資料統計與教育用途，不構成投資建議。投資一定有風險，過去績效不代表未來表現，交易前請自行評估並承擔風險。