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3653

健策 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 健策 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 14Quality 92Growth 79Momentum 71Chips 14

Is 健策 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~94% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 6.3%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 91th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -3.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 37.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral +0.06
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 元大證券 holds 1,708 lots
  • sellers have 2,392 lots left, ~52 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +64% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大證券 has accumulated 1,708 lots since the start (sold 4%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 2,622 lots, has sold 60%, 1,056 left, ~52 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.54pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.30pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,867 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大證券群益金鼎-大安凱基摩根大通中國信託國票-敦北法人
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利花旗環球富邦證券統一國泰證券兆豐證券
Desks
own scale
美商高盛新加坡商瑞銀港商麥格理永豐金-匯立
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大證券 +1,708
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎-大安 +638
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基 +630
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +596
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 中國信託 +198
    sold 20%
  • 國票-敦北法人 +150
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 1,056 left
    sold 60%· ~52 sessions to clear
  • 花旗環球 924 left
    sold 28%· ~41 sessions to clear
  • 富邦證券 337 left
    sold 54%· paused recently
  • 統一 286 left
    sold 59%· paused recently
  • 國泰證券 256 left
    sold 54%· paused recently
  • 兆豐證券 67 left
    sold 83%· paused recently

Desks

  • 美商高盛 -1,341
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -1,318
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 港商麥格理 -678
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 永豐金-匯立 -450
    unclassified
Still selling 2,392 lots ~52 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +812 absorbed / -870 sold sellers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -2,846 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 37.74%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

82 historical occurrences (since 2009-12-10)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 63%, Sample 81, Median +4.74%, Excess +4.26%, Beat mkt rate 58%；60-day: Win 60%, Sample 80, Median +7.7%, Excess +9.45%, Beat mkt rate 58.8%；120-day: Win 74.7%, Sample 79, Median +21.09%, Excess +20.59%, Beat mkt rate 72.2%

120 days after: historical avg +28.95%

20-day +5.49%
60-day +12.9%
120-day +28.95%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
63%
60%
74.7%
Sample
81
80
79
Median
+4.74%
+7.7%
+21.09%
Excess
+4.26%
+9.45%
+20.59%
Beat mkt rate
58%
58.8%
72.2%

Over 79 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 28.95%, beat the market by 20.59 pts; win rate 74.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 325-0.2% -13.7% 47.1% -5.1%
20-40 229+71.8% +88.9% 73.4% +58.8%
40-60 525+80.9% +76.4% 93.1% +64.8%
60-80 813+60.2% +55.7% 86.5% +39.2%
80-100 You are here1145+43.2% +29.9% 84.1% +25.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 110.37, at the 99.4th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+3.8%
Win rate 34.1% Excess +3.3%
123d
+30.8%
Win rate 90.8% Excess +24.4%
578d
Now
+21.4%
Win rate 69% Excess +10.2%
1272d
60-day momentum down
+1.3%
Win rate 31.2% Excess -1.6%
317d
+26.8%
Win rate 76.6% Excess +20%
351d
+38.3%
Win rate 79.3% Excess +27.8%
516d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1272 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 21.4%, win rate 69%, beat the market by 10.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

34 times historically; 60-day forward avg +10.96%, win rate 70.6%, beating the market by +3.8 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

70 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.12%, win rate 67.1%, beating the market by +8.87 pts on average.

What does 健策 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；高階散熱、精密金屬零組件、導線架與連接器相關零組件 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

3653 對應證券為台灣證券交易所上市普通股「健策」，公司全名健策精密工業股份有限公司，英文名 Jentech Precision Industrial Co., Ltd.。公司成立於 1987/03/28，2008/11/20 興櫃，2009/11/18 掛牌上市；總部位於桃園市龜山區文化里19鄰科技一路40號。董事長為趙宗信，總經理與發言人為林錦隆；公司統一編號 22415854，簽證會計師為資誠聯合會計師事務所。公開股市資料顯示 2026 年資本額約新台幣 14.67 億元，員工規模公司官網揭露為全球 2000 人以上。生產與服務據點包含台灣桃園龜山、大園，中國無錫，並布局馬來西亞製造與美國、歐洲物流服務。主要股東與董監事持股方面，114 年股東常會董事改選公告揭露董事信昌國際實業股份有限公司持股 17,460,592 股、董事恆山股份有限公司持股 16,672,994 股、董事趙永昌持股 2,068,292 股、董事長趙宗信持股 2,032,002 股；Goodinfo 2025 年資料亦顯示信昌國際與恆山分別約持股 12.2% 與 11.7%。

Business

健策以高精密模具、沖壓、冷鍛、表面處理、電鍍、塑膠嵌入射出與自動化量產能力為核心，商業模式為與半導體、AI/HPC、伺服器、車用與電子客戶共同開發高可靠度、高精密金屬零組件，並以垂直整合製程縮短交期、提升良率與保護客戶機密。主要產品包含散熱產品（均熱片、Heat Spreader、Vapor Chamber Lid、Micro Channel Lid、液冷模組、氣冷模組、車用水冷板與電池冷卻系統）、互連與機構件（IC Socket、ILM/Loading Mechanism、RF Connector）、導線架（LED Leadframe、Semiconductor Leadframe）、電子週邊設備及相關配件。114 年年報揭露產品組合為：散熱產品 14,683,033 千元、占 72.42%；導線架 1,865,893 千元、占 9.20%；電子週邊設備及相關配件 1,440,362 千元、占 7.10%；通訊設備及相關配件 176,818 千元、占 0.87%；其他 2,109,471 千元、占 10.41%。2025 年全年合併營收 20,275,577 千元，年增 42%，稅後純益 5,310,342 千元，EPS 36.75 元。終端應用以 AI 伺服器/HPC 高功耗晶片、半導體封裝、CPU/GPU/ASIC 機構與散熱、車用電力電子與照明、通訊射頻連接為主；媒體與產業報導指稱 Intel、AMD、NVIDIA 等為高階 HPC/AI 均熱片客戶，台積電封裝供應鏈亦與健策關係密切，但公司年報未逐一揭露客戶名稱與占比。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年已是高成長年度，主因 AI 伺服器與高階半導體封裝散熱需求推升散熱產品出貨與產品組合升級，全年營收年增 42%、毛利率由 2024 年約 38% 升至 2025 年約 42%，稅後純益年增 55%。2026 年截至 5 月累計合併營收 9,929,814 千元、年增 20.3%，顯示散熱產品仍維持成長，但月度波動與基期墊高需留意。2026-2028 年主要成長動能包含：（1）AI GPU/ASIC、HPC 晶片功耗提升，使封裝級均熱片、Vapor Chamber Lid、Micro Channel Lid 與液冷板 ASP 與需求同步提升；（2）公司從單一金屬件延伸至散熱模組、連接器機構與完整熱解決方案，有助提高單機價值量；（3）Dayuan 廠區擴產、馬來西亞與海外物流布局，有助因應全球客戶產能與地緣分散要求；（4）車用電力電子與電池熱管理產品提供中長期第二曲線；（5）法人與媒體報導多次提及 MCL 可能在 2026 下半年至 2027 年逐步導入、2027-2028 年放量，但實際量產時程、良率、價格與市占仍未由公司完整量化確認。主要風險包含：AI 伺服器平台規格變更或出貨遞延、客戶多家分單導致市占低於預期、MCL/液冷量產良率與資本支出回收風險、銅/鐵/銀與電鍍化學品價格波動、新台幣匯率升值壓縮獲利、半導體與伺服器景氣循環、國際競爭者及台灣散熱同業在液冷與均熱板方案追趕。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 銅、鐵、銀等金屬材料供應商 重要原料來源；公司與年報/產業資料僅揭露原料類別，未揭露具名主要供應商，金屬價格波動會影響成本。
  • 電鍍化學品與表面處理材料供應商 用於電鍍、表面處理與高可靠度金屬零件製程；供應商名稱未公開揭露。
  • 塑膠材料與熱固性樹脂供應商 用於導線架、連接器與嵌入射出等產品；供應商名稱未公開揭露。
  • 模具、自動化與精密加工設備供應商 支援沖壓、冷鍛、模具與自動化量產；具名供應商未公開揭露。
Downstream
  • NVIDIA 美國上市公司；媒體報導指其為高階 HPC/AI 均熱片與新世代散熱方案相關客戶/終端平台，惟健策未在年報具名揭露銷售占比。
  • Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.（AMD） 美國上市公司；媒體報導指其為高階 HPC/AI 晶片均熱片客戶之一，非台股掛牌。
  • Intel Corporation 美國上市公司；媒體報導指其為高階 HPC/CPU 散熱與機構件客戶之一，非台股掛牌。
  • 台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司 2330 台股上市公司；媒體報導指出健策與半導體封裝/CoWoS 散熱供應鏈關係密切，並曾列入台積電優良供應商相關敘述；是否為直接銷售客戶與金額未由公司公開量化。
  • AI 伺服器與雲端服務供應商供應鏈 終端應用包括 AI 伺服器、資料中心與高階運算設備；實際 OEM/ODM 與 CSP 客戶多受保密限制，年報未具名揭露。
  • 車用電力電子與電池熱管理客戶 應用於 EV pin fin heat sink、battery cold plate、MCU cooler、ECU cold plate 等；主要客戶未具名公開。

Competitors

Sources（17）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.