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3702

大聯大 Electronics Distribution As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 大聯大 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 66Quality 63Growth 90Momentum 74Chips 98

Is 大聯大 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 36th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 6.5%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 17th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 69th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 21.4% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 82.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.93
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 80,123 lots
  • sellers have 2,315 lots left, ~560 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +67% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 80,123 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 國泰證券 peaked at 7,006 lots, has sold 87%, 918 left, ~2 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.92pp, mid holders +72, retail -3.82pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -543 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利摩根大通美商高盛新加坡商瑞銀香港上海匯豐凱基-台北
Distributing
國泰證券玉山證券群益金鼎-新莊新光-新竹國票-長城富邦-敦南
Desks
own scale
永豐金證券元大證券群益金鼎國票-敦北法人
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +80,123
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +35,407
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +31,774
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +24,368
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 香港上海匯豐 +18,459
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +17,029
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 國泰證券 918 left
    sold 87%· ~2 sessions to clear
  • 玉山證券 1,016 left
    sold 41%· ~31 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎-新莊 237 left
    sold 51%· paused recently
  • 新光-新竹 55 left
    sold 83%· paused recently
  • 國票-長城 199 left
    sold 34%· paused recently
  • 富邦-敦南 56 left
    sold 80%· ~560 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 永豐金證券 -33,964
    unclassified
  • 元大證券 -28,251
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎 -21,416
    unclassified
  • 國票-敦北法人 -15,034
    unclassified
Still selling 2,315 lots ~560 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +60,315 absorbed / -5,627 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -9 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 82.9%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

74 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 64.3%, Sample 70, Median +1.84%, Excess +1.42%, Beat mkt rate 51.4%；60-day: Win 67.6%, Sample 68, Median +5.61%, Excess +5.17%, Beat mkt rate 61.8%；120-day: Win 68.7%, Sample 67, Median +8.21%, Excess +6.83%, Beat mkt rate 52.2%

120 days after: historical avg +11.97%

20-day +2.89%
60-day +9.43%
120-day +11.97%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
64.3%
67.6%
68.7%
Sample
70
68
67
Median
+1.84%
+5.61%
+8.21%
Excess
+1.42%
+5.17%
+6.83%
Beat mkt rate
51.4%
61.8%
52.2%

Over 67 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 11.97%, beat the market by 6.83 pts; win rate 68.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1415+16.6% +11.3% 76.9% +5.4%
20-40 615+13.8% +13.2% 82.8% -3.4%
40-60 374+10.1% +11.9% 74.6% -2.7%
60-80 You are here131+21.9% +6.1% 64.1% +2.8%
80-100 471+8.5% -7.6% 36.7% -25%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 13.06, at the 68.7th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+5.5%
Win rate 71.3% Excess +0.6%
1053d
+5.9%
Win rate 69% Excess -2%
523d
Now
+14.5%
Win rate 53% Excess -4.4%
355d
60-day momentum down
+7.5%
Win rate 74.8% Excess +0.9%
786d
+15.6%
Win rate 96.1% Excess +3.8%
129d
+3.3%
Win rate 45.9% Excess -9.4%
279d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 355 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 14.5%, win rate 53%, lagged the market by 4.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

32 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.77%, win rate 56.2%, beating the market by -1.12 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

75 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.84%, win rate 52.1%, beating the market by -0.29 pts on average.

What does 大聯大 do? Company profile

電子通路業；全球半導體零組件通路商 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

3702 對應大聯大控股股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，股票代碼 3702，英文簡稱 WPG。公司成立於 2005 年 11 月 9 日，並於同日在台灣證券交易所掛牌上市。總部位於台北市南港區經貿二路 189 號 22 樓。董事長為黃偉祥，總經理為張蓉崗，發言人為袁興文。公司定位為亞太起家的全球半導體零組件通路商，官網揭露約 5,000 名員工、全球 69 個服務據點、代理超過 250 家國際供應商。公司 2025 年合併營收為新台幣 9,991.1 億元，營業利益 199.71 億元，稅後淨利 101.05 億元，EPS 5.77 元；2025 年底普通股股本約新台幣 167.91 億元。公開市場資料顯示主要內部人持股包含董事長黃偉祥約 4,141 萬股，董監持股約 4.3% 左右；ETF/基金及外資亦為重要股東群，但完整前十大股東需以最新年報及公開資訊觀測站為準。

Business

大聯大是半導體與電子零組件通路平台，透過世平、詮鼎等子集團及全球區域平台，向上游原廠取得授權代理或經銷產品，向下游 OEM、ODM、EMS、品牌廠、工業與車用客戶提供零組件供應、設計導入、技術支援、庫存與物流、跨境交付、信用與金融支援等服務。主要產品包含核心元件、CPU/GPU/ASIC/晶片組、記憶體、類比與混合訊號 IC、離散與邏輯元件、被動元件、連接器、感測器、光學元件、電源管理、網通與無線通訊模組等。2025 年中法說相關報導顯示，應用面約為電腦相關 46%、手機 19%、消費性電子 9%、工控與車用各約 6%；產品組合中核心零件維持四成以上、記憶體約 25%、被動元件約 7%、類比與離散元件各約 8%。2026 年 5 月外資報告引用法說資訊指出，大聯大運算、通訊、消費、工業與汽車業務分別占獲利約 49%、15%、8%、7%、7%，產品類型中記憶體與核心零組件分別約 45%、23%；不同口徑與期間差異大，宜視為法說/法人估計而非固定長期結構。商業模式屬高週轉、低毛利率、大規模營運資金管理模式，獲利關鍵在代理線組合、庫存週轉、美元匯率、融資成本、客戶信用風險與供應鏈服務附加價值。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年已由生成式 AI、AI/傳統伺服器、電源、網通與相關電子零組件拉貨推升，全年營收年增 13.5%、獲利年增 39.5%。2026 年公司首季財測指出 AI 需求持續暢旺；2026 年 5 月法說相關報導顯示第 2 季營收預估 3,450 億至 3,650 億元、毛利率 4.25% 至 4.45%，顯示 AI 算力、資料中心、記憶體、電源管理及高速互連仍為主成長動能。2025-2028 展望重點包括：1. AI 伺服器與推論/邊緣 AI 帶動 GPU、ASIC、記憶體、電源、網通、連接器、被動元件需求；2. AI PC、AI 手機、機器人、自駕車與工業 AI 擴大終端應用；3. 公司 2025 年啟動全球轉型，組織由四大集團整併為世平與詮鼎雙核心，推動 WPG 2.0、數據驅動與 LaaS 智慧物流；4. 2025 年完成對華經資訊 47.67% 股權投資，可能延伸資訊服務與解決方案協同；5. 地緣政治與關稅使客戶採 China Plus One，台灣、東南亞與美國等區域營收比重提高，有助分散中國大陸/香港集中度。風險包括半導體景氣循環、AI 需求或資本支出放緩、記憶體價格反轉、代理線流失或競爭加劇、原廠直供比例提高、客戶提前拉貨後庫存修正、美元匯率與利率波動、營運資金與應收帳款風險、關稅與出口管制、低毛利通路商對費用率高度敏感。外資報告曾預估大聯大 2026 年營收年增 34.5% 且成長延續至 2028、毛利率由 2025 年 3.96% 升至 2026-2028 年約 4.3%，但此屬法人預測，非公司保證。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 聯發科技 2454 上游 IC 原廠與授權代理線之一；公司 Line Card 列示 MediaTek，屬台股上市 IC 設計公司。
  • 瑞昱半導體 2379 上游 IC 原廠與授權代理線之一；公司 Line Card 列示 Realtek，屬台股上市網通/音訊 IC 設計公司。
  • 華邦電子 2344 上游記憶體供應商之一；公司 Line Card 列示 Winbond，屬台股上市記憶體公司。
  • 南亞科技 2408 上游記憶體供應商之一；公司 Line Card 列示 Nanya，屬台股上市 DRAM 公司。
  • 群聯電子 8299 上游儲存控制晶片供應商之一；公司 Line Card 列示 Phison，屬台股上櫃公司。
  • 創惟科技 6104 上游 USB/控制 IC 供應商之一；公司 Line Card 列示 Genesys，屬台股上市櫃公司。
  • 祥碩科技 5269 上游高速介面 IC 供應商之一；公司 Line Card 列示 ASMedia，屬台股上市公司。
  • Intel 上游處理器、伺服器與平台晶片原廠；美國上市公司，非台股。
  • AMD 上游 CPU/GPU/資料中心晶片原廠；美國上市公司，非台股。
  • Qualcomm 上游通訊與手機平台晶片原廠；美國上市公司，非台股。
  • Micron 上游記憶體原廠；美國上市公司，非台股。
  • Samsung Electronics 上游記憶體、半導體與電子元件原廠；韓國上市公司，非台股。
Downstream
  • EMS/ODM/OEM 客戶群 公司主要下游客戶型態，涵蓋電子製造服務、原始設計製造、原始設備製造與品牌客戶；公司公開資料多以客戶類型揭露，未完整逐名列出客戶。
  • 鴻海精密 2317 AI 伺服器、PC、通訊與消費電子供應鏈代表下游 EMS/ODM；未查得大聯大官方逐名確認為客戶，列為終端應用鏈代表。
  • 廣達電腦 2382 AI 伺服器與筆電 ODM 代表下游；未查得大聯大官方逐名確認為客戶，列為終端應用鏈代表。
  • 緯創資通 3231 AI 伺服器與資通訊 ODM 代表下游；未查得大聯大官方逐名確認為客戶，列為終端應用鏈代表。
  • 緯穎科技服務 6669 雲端資料中心伺服器下游應用代表；未查得大聯大官方逐名確認為客戶，列為終端應用鏈代表。
  • 英業達 2356 伺服器、筆電與智慧裝置 ODM 代表下游；未查得大聯大官方逐名確認為客戶，列為終端應用鏈代表。
  • 仁寶電腦 2324 筆電與智慧裝置 ODM 代表下游；未查得大聯大官方逐名確認為客戶，列為終端應用鏈代表。
  • 和碩聯合科技 4938 消費電子與資通訊 ODM/EMS 代表下游；未查得大聯大官方逐名確認為客戶，列為終端應用鏈代表。
  • 華碩電腦 2357 PC、主機板與品牌終端應用代表；未查得大聯大官方逐名確認為客戶，列為終端應用鏈代表。

Competitors

  • 文曄科技 3036 台股上市半導體零組件通路商；與大聯大同屬大型 IC 通路商，近年亦受惠 AI/資料中心零組件需求。
  • 聯強國際 2347 台股上市資通訊、通路與半導體事業集團；半導體通路業務與大聯大部分重疊。
  • 至上電子 8112 台股上市電子零組件通路商，記憶體與半導體代理線為主要競爭領域之一。
  • 增你強 3028 台股上市電子零組件代理通路商，產品涵蓋半導體、被動與系統解決方案。
  • 擎亞電子 8096 台股上櫃電子零組件通路商，代理半導體與電子元件。
  • 益登科技 3048 台股上市電子零組件通路商，與大聯大在 IC 代理與技術服務市場競爭。
  • 全科科技 3209 台股上櫃通訊與電子零組件通路商，部分產品與客戶市場重疊。
  • Arrow Electronics 美國上市全球電子零組件通路商，非台股。
  • Avnet 美國上市全球電子零組件通路商，非台股。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.