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4142

國光生 Biotech & Healthcare As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 國光生 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 29Quality 4Growth 84Momentum 35Chips 69

Is 國光生 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 2th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -4.0%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 86th market percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 3.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 51.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral +0.07
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 台灣企銀-太平 holds 1,577 lots
  • sellers have 344 lots left, ~55 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -14% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣企銀-太平 has accumulated 1,577 lots since the start (sold 1%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大-大里 peaked at 314 lots, has sold 60%, 127 left, ~55 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.26pp, mid holders +7, retail -0.05pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -5,951 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣企銀-太平元大-內湖民權元大-龍潭群益金鼎兆豐-北高雄群益金鼎-忠孝
Distributing
元大-大里群益金鼎-開元富邦-公益凱基-竹北凱基-長庚元大-內湖
Desks
own scale
美商高盛新加坡商瑞銀港商野村凱基-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣企銀-太平 +1,577
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 元大-內湖民權 +1,189
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-龍潭 +844
    sold 10%
  • 群益金鼎 +810
    sold 0%
  • 兆豐-北高雄 +635
    sold 0%
  • 群益金鼎-忠孝 +598
    sold 3%

Distributing

  • 元大-大里 127 left
    sold 60%· ~55 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎-開元 79 left
    sold 72%· paused recently
  • 富邦-公益 51 left
    sold 76%· ~8 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-竹北 144 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 凱基-長庚 60 left
    sold 61%· paused recently
  • 元大-內湖 84 left
    sold 45%· paused recently

Desks

  • 美商高盛 -2,751
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -2,049
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 港商野村 -1,329
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -1,188
    day-trade · selling pressure
Still selling 344 lots ~55 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,564 absorbed / -222 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -4,388 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 51.88%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

93 historical occurrences (since 2012-05-03)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 42.5%, Sample 80, Median -0.62%, Excess -1.24%, Beat mkt rate 35%；60-day: Win 34.6%, Sample 78, Median -5.65%, Excess -4.26%, Beat mkt rate 32.1%；120-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 77, Median -6.81%, Excess -4.97%, Beat mkt rate 32.5%

120 days after: historical avg +1.9%

20-day -0.23%
60-day -1.57%
120-day +1.9%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.5%
34.6%
42.9%
Sample
80
78
77
Median
-0.62%
-5.65%
-6.81%
Excess
-1.24%
-4.26%
-4.97%
Beat mkt rate
35%
32.1%
32.5%

Over 77 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 1.9%, lagged the market by 4.97 pts; win rate 42.9%.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

7 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.26%, win rate 42.9%, beating the market by +0.42 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

56 times historically; 60-day forward avg -2.37%, win rate 37%, beating the market by -8.08 pts on average.

What does 國光生 do? Company profile

生技醫療業；人用疫苗、生物製劑、CDMO 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

4142 對應證券為國光生物科技股份有限公司，股票簡稱國光生，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於 1965/12/22，總部與主要廠區位於台中市潭子區潭興路一段 3 號，統一編號 33259508。公開資料顯示掛牌上市日期為 2012/05/03，興櫃日期為 2010/09/29，公開發行日期為 2010/01/04。Goodinfo 與 Yahoo 股市資料顯示資本額約新台幣 42.95 億元，已發行普通股 429,507,750 股，無特別股。董事長為詹啟賢；部分資料顯示總經理為詹啟賢，鉅亨部分頁面仍列留忠正，依 2025 法說整理與 Goodinfo 較新資料判斷，留忠正退休後暫由詹啟賢兼任總經理。公司自述為台灣重要人用疫苗生物製劑廠，具歐盟 GMP、美國 FDA 相關認證與 PIC/S GMP 規範能力；主要產品包括三價/四價流感疫苗、H1N1 新型流感疫苗、日本腦炎疫苗、破傷風類毒素、結核菌淨素，並提供國際 CDMO/無菌充填包裝服務。主要股東方面，公開可查的董監持股資料列行政院國家發展基金管理會、耀華玻璃股份有限公司管理委員會、精茂投資、川圃投資控股及董事長詹啟賢等為重要持股或董監事相關持股；較新完整前十大股東需以年報或公開資訊觀測站為準。員工規模未能在可直接開啟來源中取得完整最新人數。

Business

國光生的核心商業模式分為自有疫苗產品銷售與國際合作/CDMO 代工。自有產品以季節性流感疫苗為主，並包括日本腦炎疫苗、破傷風類毒素、結核菌淨素等；MoneyDJ 彙整資料指出 2024 年產品營收比重約為流感疫苗 82%、非流感疫苗 18%，但此比例屬第三方彙整，仍應以公司年報為最終準據。公司 CDMO 業務包含與 Protein Sciences／法國 Sanofi 集團合作生產重組蛋白流感疫苗 FluBlok，國光自 2015 年展開合作，2017 年開始商業量產，產品供應美國並拓展至英國、歐盟等市場。公司也承接韓國客戶高價生物相似藥合作生產，另與國際大廠合作無菌充填包裝、製程確效與技術轉移服務。終端應用包括季節性流感防疫、成人與兒童預防接種、政府/公費疫苗採購、海外疫苗市場，以及國際藥廠的疫苗與生物製劑供應鏈。公司旗下/關係企業安特羅生技專注腸病毒 71 型疫苗，國光在製程、生產與集團資源上具關聯；安特羅已向澳門、越南、泰國等市場推進藥證申請或商業布局。國光的收入具高度季節性，流感疫苗每年生產與出貨集中於特定月份，因此公司以南半球市場、CDMO、生物相似藥與新產線利用率提升來平滑產能與營收。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年主要是產線改造、設備安裝、技術轉移、製程確效與新案準備期，法說整理指出公司目標為損益兩平，營收動能來自既有自有產品、CDMO 訂單與為 2026 年新專案準備的技術轉移服務費。2026 年是管理層與多家媒體反覆提及的成長關鍵年：賽諾菲委託的第二條自動化無菌充填線導入後，FluBlok 相關合作產量目標由約 500 萬劑提升至 1000 萬劑，並預期第一、第二條充填線同步生產；南半球四價流感疫苗方面，公司目標 2026 年取得藥證並於同年 11 月啟用商業批次生產，巴西 GMP 認證與南美市場為重要觀察點；腸病毒疫苗則透過安特羅布局澳門、越南與東協市場，越南公費市場若順利放量，將成為長期增量。2027 年展望包含賽諾菲第二項新興傳染病疫苗或新代工項目量產排程，以及歐美製程驗證批次後的商業生產放大；高價生物相似藥 CDMO 若完成歐盟、北美、亞洲商業批次與查核，亦可能帶來較高單價收入。2028 年較缺乏公司明確量化指引，合理推論成長關鍵在於：海外市場佔比提升、南半球疫苗商業化、第三條年產能約 400 萬劑自動化無菌充填線利用率、腸病毒疫苗東協市場滲透，以及國際藥廠 CDMO 長約延續。主要風險包括疫苗藥證與查廠時程延誤、政府採購價格壓力、流感疫苗需求季節波動、產線確效失敗或良率問題、單一大型客戶依賴、匯率波動、海外市場法規與競爭、研發/擴產前期費用壓力，以及生技股募資環境不佳。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 疫苗原料、抗原、佐劑、培養基、無菌耗材與包材供應商 上游原物料與製造耗材；公開來源未揭露完整供應商名單，多為國際生技材料、藥用包材、檢驗試劑與 GMP 設備供應體系。
  • 無菌充填、製程確效與生物製劑設備供應商 上游設備與工程驗證供應商；公司近年新增第二、第三條無菌充填包裝線並添購設備套組，但公開資料未完整揭露供應商名稱。
  • Protein Sciences／Sanofi 集團 國際合作與技術/產品來源之一；Protein Sciences 為 Sanofi 集團旗下公司，與國光合作 FluBlok 重組蛋白流感疫苗生產，屬外國企業。
Downstream
  • Sanofi／賽諾菲 主要國際 CDMO 客戶與合作夥伴，FluBlok 相關產品供應美國、英國、歐盟等市場；Sanofi 為法國上市跨國藥廠，非台股。
  • 台灣政府與疾病管制署等公費疫苗採購通路 國內流感疫苗與防疫產品重要下游客戶/採購通路，屬政府機關而非上市櫃公司。
  • 韓國生物相似藥客戶 高價生物相似藥 CDMO 委託客戶；公開新聞未明確揭露完整公司名稱，屬海外客戶。
  • 安特羅生物科技股份有限公司 集團腸病毒 71 型疫苗產品開發與海外市場推進關係企業；雖有 6564 代號資訊，但公開資料顯示仍有上市櫃規劃討論，未確認為上市櫃普通股，故 stock_id 依規範填 null。
  • 澳門、越南、泰國、印尼及南半球/南美市場代理與公衛通路 海外疫苗銷售與藥證布局通路；越南部分資料稱與當地最大國營疫苗公司合作，名稱未在可查來源中完整確認。

Competitors

  • 高端疫苗生物製劑股份有限公司 6547 台股掛牌生技疫苗公司，與國光同屬疫苗/生物製劑領域，但產品線與市場定位不完全相同。
  • 台康生技股份有限公司 6589 台股掛牌生物製劑與 CDMO/生物相似藥公司，與國光在生物製劑 CDMO、國際查廠與商業批次能力上具部分競爭或比較關係。
  • 永昕生物醫藥股份有限公司 4726 台股掛牌生物藥開發與委託開發製造公司，與國光在生物製劑 CDMO 領域具部分競爭關係。
  • 保瑞藥業股份有限公司 6472 台股掛牌 CDMO/製藥公司，整體 CDMO 能力具比較性，但主要劑型與疫苗專業程度不同。
  • Sanofi、GSK、CSL Seqirus、Moderna、Pfizer 等國際疫苗廠 全球疫苗市場主要競爭者或合作方，多為海外上市公司，非台股上市櫃；其中 Sanofi 同時是國光重要 CDMO 客戶。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.