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4306

炎洲 Plastics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 炎洲 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 64Quality 45Growth 80Momentum 61Chips 98

Is 炎洲 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 45th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.4%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 71th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 89th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 22.9% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 40.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.97
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 5,344 lots
  • sellers have 367 lots left, ~70 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +14% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 5,344 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大-北港 peaked at 468 lots, has sold 88%, 56 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.29pp, mid holders +4, retail -2.11pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,177 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利新加坡商瑞銀元大-新盛美商高盛凱基-台北美林
Distributing
元大-北港花旗環球富邦-板橋元大-鳳山凱基-三重富邦-樹林
Desks
own scale
高橋德信(牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐國泰-敦南
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +5,344
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +4,382
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-新盛 +4,034
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +2,674
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +1,340
    sold 19%
  • 美林 +1,197
    sold 9%· still adding

Distributing

  • 元大-北港 56 left
    sold 88%· paused recently
  • 花旗環球 188 left
    sold 47%· paused recently
  • 富邦-板橋 175 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 元大-鳳山 55 left
    sold 74%· paused recently
  • 凱基-三重 76 left
    sold 64%· ~6 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-樹林 98 left
    sold 51%· paused recently

Desks

  • 高橋 -2,894
    unclassified
  • 德信 -542
    unclassified
  • (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 -525
    unclassified
  • 國泰-敦南 -467
    day-trade · selling pressure
Still selling 367 lots ~70 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +11,659 absorbed / -484 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -391 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

32 historical occurrences (since 2008-04-28)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 51.6%, Sample 31, Median +0.32%, Excess +0.82%, Beat mkt rate 41.9%；60-day: Win 48.4%, Sample 31, Median -0.2%, Excess -2.39%, Beat mkt rate 35.5%；120-day: Win 58.1%, Sample 31, Median +5.16%, Excess -2.37%, Beat mkt rate 41.9%

120 days after: historical avg +2.98%

20-day +0.7%
60-day +0.5%
120-day +2.98%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
51.6%
48.4%
58.1%
Sample
31
31
31
Median
+0.32%
-0.2%
+5.16%
Excess
+0.82%
-2.39%
-2.37%
Beat mkt rate
41.9%
35.5%
41.9%

Over 31 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.98%, lagged the market by 2.37 pts; win rate 58.1%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 40.04%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

63 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 43.1%, Sample 58, Median -0.92%, Excess +0.31%, Beat mkt rate 43.1%；60-day: Win 42.1%, Sample 57, Median -1.53%, Excess -0.57%, Beat mkt rate 40.4%；120-day: Win 46.4%, Sample 56, Median -0.58%, Excess -1.11%, Beat mkt rate 51.8%

120 days after: historical avg +1.78%

20-day -0.27%
60-day +0.6%
120-day +1.78%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
43.1%
42.1%
46.4%
Sample
58
57
56
Median
-0.92%
-1.53%
-0.58%
Excess
+0.31%
-0.57%
-1.11%
Beat mkt rate
43.1%
40.4%
51.8%

Over 56 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 1.78%, lagged the market by 1.11 pts; win rate 46.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 255-13.9% -11.9% 12.5% -14.7%
20-40 633+9.1% +10% 64.9% -15.5%
40-60 267+4.9% +3% 62.9% -27.1%
60-80 503+11% +5.8% 56.5% -17.7%
80-100 You are here928+6.3% +3% 54.2% -6.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 41.97, at the 89.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-4.1%
Win rate 42.1% Excess -9.5%
373d
+3.8%
Win rate 53.1% Excess -10.3%
429d
Now
+10.1%
Win rate 68.4% Excess +1.3%
532d
60-day momentum down
-1.3%
Win rate 33.9% Excess -4.6%
354d
+0.3%
Win rate 33% Excess -17.5%
191d
+4.2%
Win rate 45.3% Excess -7.4%
827d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 532 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 10.1%, win rate 68.4%, beat the market by 1.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

58 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.07%, win rate 47.4%, beating the market by -3.85 pts on average.

What does 炎洲 do? Company profile

塑膠工業 上市

Overview

炎洲股份有限公司為台灣上市普通股公司，股票代號4306，英文名稱YEM CHIO CO., LTD.，主要屬塑膠工業。公司成立於1978年3月7日，公開發行日為1998年4月8日，上櫃日期為2001年4月4日，上市日期為2008年1月21日。總部位於台北市內湖區行善路397號7樓，統一編號35894259。依2026年股東會年報及股市基本資料，董事長為李書緯，總經理為李其政，發言人為張詠傑。股本約新台幣67.68億元，已發行普通股約676,757,216股。合併員工人數截至2026年3月31日為2,245人，2025年底為2,232人。前十大股東包含亞朔股份有限公司7.98%、英群股份有限公司7.80%、英全國際股份有限公司6.44%、華南商業銀行受李志賢信託財產專戶4.09%、洲際國際有限公司3.11%、詠宸國際有限公司3.08%、鄭仰鈞2.69%、兆豐國際商業銀行受託保管英屬維京群島炎洲公司投資專戶2.54%、鄭大目投資股份有限公司0.90%、李志賢0.75%。主要轉投資包含YEM CHIO (BVI) 100%、萬洲化學100%、炎洲流通3171持股38.86%且綜合持股61.4%、炎洲營建100%、炎洲旅館100%、炎潤開發40%、鴻晶新科技66.36%。

Business

炎洲是以膠帶、薄膜、包裝材料通路、特用化學、房地產與新能源為主的多角化包材與材料集團。2025年合併營收132.76億元，年減16.5%；依部門別，膠帶製造部93.61億元、占70.5%，包裝材料通路部19.11億元、占14.4%，房產事業部10.42億元、占7.9%，特用化學部5.59億元、占4.2%，新能源部4.03億元、占3.0%。依主要產品分類，膠帶84.53億元、占64%，包材19.11億元、占14%，薄膜9.08億元、占7%，房產事業10.42億元、占8%，其他9.62億元、占7%。主要產品包括BOPP薄膜、PVC軟質薄膜、PE薄膜、OPP包裝膠帶、PVC電氣絕緣與汽車線束膠帶、文具膠帶、保護膠帶、雙面膠帶、泡棉膠帶、水性黏著劑、塑膠袋、打包帶與各類包裝材料；特化產品包含半導體黃光製程用EBR、顯影液、去光阻劑、電子級高純度溶劑、客製化配方與廢溶劑回收純化再利用。銷售以外銷為主，2025年合併外銷約67%、內銷約33%；膠帶外銷比重約94%，薄膜外銷約64%，包材通路內銷約79%，房產與其他以內銷為主。商業模式為上中游薄膜與膠帶製造、包材通路銷售、特化化學品製造/代工與回收純化、以及房地產開發交屋收益並行；公司強調BOPP/PVC/PE薄膜到膠帶塗佈、分切、包裝的垂直整合，並透過炎洲流通的包材通路與自有品牌包大師擴大下游覆蓋。2025年無單一供應商或單一銷售客戶達合併進貨或銷貨總額10%以上。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年實績顯示膠帶塑化產業仍處調整期，受下游客戶去庫存、中國大陸與東南亞供給競爭、價格壓力、新台幣升值造成匯兌損失、出口毛利承壓、房地產交屋量減少及部分海外營運政策因素影響，炎洲全年合併營收132.76億元、稅後淨利1.72億元、EPS 0.26元，獲利低於前一年。2026年經營方針包括優化膠帶各生產基地產品組合與產能稼動率、提高營運效益與毛利穩定度，並不排除策略性併購；特化事業聚焦半導體與面板製程用顯影劑、清洗劑、去光阻液、矽烷類等電子級材料與客製化配方，培養回收與純化技術，新廠建置中以增加現有產品產能、提升研發與服務能力。房地產方面，新莊「炎洲THE ONE」預計自2026年第1季交屋，北投「炎洲奇玉」及中正區「炎洲晴」預計自2026年第3季起陸續交屋，另持續推進新北塭仔圳重劃區中長期開發。中長期到2027至2028年，較明確的成長動能來自全球庫存去化接近尾聲後的膠帶與包材需求修復、電商與物流包裝需求、ESG綠色包裝與環保材料、無溶劑PVC膠帶、UV膠線束膠帶、回收材質環保包材、再生環保減碳膜、生物可分解膠帶、低VOC汽車線束膠帶、食品抗菌膜、醫療用薄膜，以及AI、半導體與面板供應鏈帶動電子級化學品需求。主要風險包括中國與東南亞產能過剩及削價競爭、美國關稅與貿易政策變化、原油與PP/PVC/PE等石化原料價格波動、台灣非東協會員造成部分關稅障礙、傳產缺工與業務人才傳承、匯率波動、房地產交屋進度與房市政策、半導體客戶認證與擴產進度、環保法規與碳盤查成本。2027至2028年的具體營收或獲利數字公司未公告，本研究僅能依已揭露策略與產業趨勢做定性推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台灣化學纖維股份有限公司 1326 年報列為聚丙烯PP主要供應商之一，屬台灣上市塑化原料供應商。
  • 台灣塑膠工業股份有限公司 1301 年報列為聚丙烯PP與丙烯酸異辛酯等主要供應商之一，亦為PVC/PE等塑化產業重要上游。
  • 南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司 1303 年報列為聚丙烯薄膜BOPP原布與聚氯乙烯薄膜SPVC原布主要供應商之一。
  • 中國石油化學工業開發股份有限公司 1314 年報列為2024年度聚丙烯PP供應商之一；屬台灣上市石化公司。
  • 世坤塑膠股份有限公司 4305 年報列為聚氯乙烯薄膜SPVC原布主要供應商之一，為台灣上櫃塑膠公司。
  • 巴斯夫 年報列為丙烯酸異辛酯主要供應商之一；德國化工集團，非台股掛牌。
  • 住友 年報列為聚丙烯PP主要供應商之一；日本集團，非台股掛牌。
  • 沙伯亞太 年報列為聚丙烯PP主要供應商之一；SABIC亞太體系，非台股掛牌。
  • 福融 年報列為聚丙烯薄膜BOPP原布供應商之一，未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 中景石化 年報列為聚丙烯PP主要供應商之一，未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
Downstream
  • 炎洲流通股份有限公司 3171 炎洲持股38.86%、綜合持股61.4%的上櫃子公司，負責包裝材料通路銷售與包大師零售/企業通路。
  • 彩藝印刷與食品包裝廠 年報列為BOPP薄膜下游應用，包含食品包裝、生鮮農產、民生用品包裝與印刷加工；未揭露特定公司名稱。
  • 各類膠帶加工製造與包裝業客戶 BOPP薄膜及膠帶下游，應用於封箱、物流、包裝、標籤與商標等；年報揭露無單一銷售客戶達合併銷貨10%以上。
  • 電子業與半導體/晶圓封裝/面板廠 膠帶用於PCB、半導體晶圓切割研磨蝕刻、電子產品黏合固定；特化產品用於黃光製程、晶圓生產、封裝與面板製程。公司未揭露特定客戶名稱。
  • 汽車工業與線束供應鏈 PVC電氣絕緣膠帶、汽車線束膠帶、低VOC環保汽車線束膠帶為主要應用；公司未揭露特定客戶。
  • 建材、機械、五金、醫療器材、文具與一般家庭消費通路 膠帶與保護膜廣泛應用於鋼鋁板、五金、建材、機械、醫療器材、印刷文具及日常用品，屬分散型下游需求。

Competitors

Sources（8）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.