Ask AI to review this stock
Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.
Tell your AI:
Help me set up FinLab and analyze 4528 江興鍛. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=4528
4528
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 江興鍛 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
-
Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 22th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.6%.
-
Valuation is high.PE is in the 99th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 97th percentile.
-
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.7% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -19% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 統一 has accumulated 90 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 國泰-敦南 peaked at 67 lots, has sold 81%, 13 left, ~12 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +1, retail -0.56pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -4 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 統一 +90
- 永豐金-忠孝 +66
- 光和-嘉義 +53
- 兆豐-台中港 +45
- 群益金鼎-東門 +38
- 群益金鼎-彰化 +23
Distributing
- 國泰-敦南 13 left
- 凱基-台北 19 left
- 凱基-文心 6 left
- 元大-民雄 5 left
- 群益金鼎-崇德 9 left
- 臺銀-臺中 8 left
Desks
- 凱基-高雄 -167
- 元大-大雅 -66
- 國泰-台中 -44
- 安泰-大發 -42
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 92 | +95.5% | +117.2% | 96.7% | +75% |
| 20-40 | 434 | +1.1% | -10.8% | 27.4% | -4.7% |
| 40-60 | 748 | +20.3% | -6% | 41% | -0.2% |
| 60-80 | 902 | +17.4% | +5.1% | 56.5% | +2.4% |
| 80-100 You are here | 662 | -9% | -4.6% | 37% | -19.3% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 425.0, at the 97.4th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 407 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 8.9%, win rate 26.8%, lagged the market by 11.9%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.55%, win rate 52.2%, beating the market by +9.99 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
77 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.21%, win rate 43.5%, beating the market by +3.88 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
35 times historically; 60-day forward avg +14.9%, win rate 75.8%, beating the market by +10.67 pts on average.
What does 江興鍛 do? Company profile
Overview
江興鍛壓工業股份有限公司為台灣上櫃普通股，代號4528，英文簡稱CHF。公司成立日期為1980/09/05，掛牌上櫃日期為2001/02/12，總部位於台中市西屯區協和里協和南巷3-1號，電話04-2359-2000。董事長為江木山，總經理為莊懷煙，發言人為郭永義。股本為新台幣841,656,950元，已發行普通股84,165,695股。2024年年報揭露截至2025/03/31員工合計444人，其中行政159人、研發40人、製造245人；2024年底員工447人。主要股東截至2025/04/30為江木山29.90%、廖素鑾12.32%、江立夫8.09%、江雅品2.69%、江秋桂2.11%、江淑姿1.69%、林鈺臻1.44%、林佩頤1.44%、李永州0.81%、郭永義0.73%。公司有中國大陸轉投資，包括江興(淮安)汽車部件有限公司、福上(淮安)精密汽車配件有限公司等；年報指出近年轉投資政策仍以中國大陸汽車鍛件市場為主。2024年合併營收1,713,397仟元、稅後淨利823仟元、EPS 0.01元；2026年1至5月合併營收約594,778仟元，年減約6.45%。
Business
江興鍛是汽車傳動系統與金屬鍛件製造商，具冷鍛、溫鍛、熱鍛等綜合鍛造能力，商業模式以OEM／Tier 1汽車零組件供應鏈之鍛件代工與共同開發為主，產品多交由汽車、機車、自行車中心廠或其零件衛星工廠進一步加工組裝。2024年營收結構為汽車零件鍛壓製造加工92.05%、自行車零件0.69%、機車零件0.07%、機械零件及五金工具7.19%。主要汽車產品包括前輪傳動主件、後傳動軸件、懸吊系統鍛件、底盤配件、齒輪、冷媒瓶、鋁合金鍛造、傘形齒輪、電氣鍛件、後軸、發電機心軸、冷氣皮帶輪、離合器、差速器；另有自行車前後花鼓、碗組、曲柄軸承、變速器零件，機車傳動軸、齒輪胚、鏈輪，以及機械五金、軌道車座墊塊等鍛件。2024年主要銷售地區約中國57%、台灣17%、美國25%、其他1%，台灣外銷以美洲為主，東南亞比重近年有增加趨勢。年報揭露2024年前兩大銷貨客戶以代號揭露，分別占銷貨淨額21.13%與11.97%，第三大9.87%；因契約或非關係人因素未揭露名稱。MoneyDJ 2026年報導指出台灣廠主要承接全球傳動系統大廠AAM等訂單，且AAM併購GKN後訂單呈穩定增長；中國廠近年切入對接中國本土車廠的Tier 1傳動系統客戶。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年：公司2024年報對114年表示景氣復甦仍有變數，汽車零組件客戶受電動車競爭影響，訂單仍不穩定；但歐美系汽車零組件廠開始結束當地生產改採外購，公司承接開發新鍛件。114年營業計畫預期銷售汽車鍛件15,552仟個、自行車鍛件1,146仟個、機車鍛件19仟個、其他鍛件2,582仟個，合計19,299仟個，並以彈性調整鋼料庫存、維持ISO9001、ISO14001、IATF16949品質系統為重點。2025年公司營運仍受中國日系客戶訂單衰退、中國本土車企與新能源車競爭、美國車廠產能下降、通膨與利率影響。2026年：截至2026/05累計營收仍年減，但MoneyDJ報導指出公司力拚轉盈，台灣廠有AAM訂單支撐，原料、匯率、船運成本有轉嫁機制，台灣廠預期維持穩定獲利；中國市場尚未明顯回升，但2026年起新增兩家中國Tier 1傳動系統客戶，期待下半年改善。2027至2028年：公司未提供明確量化財測，較合理的中期觀察重點為歐美車廠與Tier 1供應商外包亞洲鍛件、AAM/GKN整合後傳動件需求、中國本土車廠供應鏈滲透率、C2F-5000沖床與外輪鍛件自動化量產後的良率與產能利用率、大型汽車與卡車鍛件如曲軸、變速箱、差速器鍛件開發進度。主要風險為中國車市價格競爭與日系車市占下滑、電動車對傳統傳動系統零件需求結構的替代、印度與中國本地鍛造業競爭、鋼材價格波動、高級鋼品仰賴進口、匯率與關稅、環保與品質認證成本、客戶集中與未揭露主要客戶變化。
Supply Chain
- 中鋼公司 2002 年報揭露台灣主要原料直棒、盤元以中鋼產製為主；為台股上市鋼鐵公司。
- 江陰興澄製鋼 年報揭露大陸端配合客戶指定以江陰興澄製鋼為主；非台股掛牌，屬中國鋼鐵供應商。
- 國外進口鋼材供應商 年報指出若台灣中鋼或大陸興澄製鋼額度不足，擬改部分鋼材自國外進口；供應商未具名。
- 模具與鍛造自動化設備供應商 公司推動大型沖床、自動化與智能產線，C2F-5000沖床外輪鍛件自動化仍需模具配合開發；具體供應商未揭露。
- American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.（AAM） MoneyDJ報導指出江興鍛台灣廠主要承接全球傳動系統大廠AAM等訂單；AAM為美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- GKN Automotive／GKN相關傳動系統業務 MoneyDJ報導指出AAM先前併購GKN，訂單呈穩定增長；GKN相關業務非台股掛牌。
- 日系汽車零組件Tier 1客戶 年報指出中國大陸廠日系客戶受中國本土車企與新能源車競爭影響，訂單衰退；客戶名稱因契約未揭露。
- 中國本土車廠供應鏈Tier 1客戶 MoneyDJ報導指出2022年起已有三家對接中國本土車廠的Tier 1客戶進入前十大客戶，2025年底再新增兩家；客戶名稱未揭露，非台股資訊無法確認。
- 國內外汽車、機車、自行車中心廠之零件衛星工廠 年報揭露產品主要銷售給國內外汽、機、自行車中心廠之零件衛星工廠，加工組裝後交車廠或供維修市場使用；具體名單未揭露。
Competitors
- 和大 1536 台股上市汽車傳動系統零組件廠，與江興鍛在汽車傳動零件供應鏈具部分競爭或替代關係。
- 倉佑 1568 台股上櫃汽車傳動系統零組件廠，產品包含傳動相關零件，屬較接近同業。
- 六方科-KY 4569 台股上市精密金屬零組件供應商，車用金屬件與鍛造／加工供應鏈有競爭重疊。
- 世德 2066 台股上櫃汽車扣件與金屬零組件供應商，與車用金屬件市場相關。
- 東陽 1319 台股上市汽車零組件大廠，主要偏AM與車身塑膠件，為廣義汽車零組件同業但非直接鍛造競爭者。
- 昭輝 1339 台股上市汽車零組件廠，屬廣義汽車零組件競爭族群。
- 堤維西 1522 台股上市車燈與汽車零組件廠，屬廣義汽車零組件同業；StockFeel同業清單列為江興鍛競爭對手之一。
- 江申 1525 台股上市汽車零組件廠，屬廣義汽車零組件同業；StockFeel同業清單列為江興鍛競爭對手之一。
Sources（11）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.