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4533
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 協易機 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 32th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.2%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 100th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.0% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Distribution to retail — bearish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price 0% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 福邦證券 has accumulated 1,294 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 港商野村 peaked at 1,299 lots, has sold 88%, 156 left, ~16 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.99pp, mid holders -2, retail +2.88pp — drifting down to retail.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,120 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 福邦證券 +1,294
- 中國信託-嘉義 +672
- 康和-台中 +549
- 台新 +475
- 兆豐-桃鶯 +431
- 元富-草屯 +342
Distributing
- 港商野村 156 left
- 國泰-敦南 537 left
- 新光 67 left
- 台灣摩根士丹利 127 left
- 元大-沙鹿 339 left
- 華南永昌-豐原 102 left
Desks
- 富邦證券 -3,529
- 摩根大通 -976
- 元大-中壢 -744
- 玉山-新竹 -670
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 47 | -12.3% | -15.2% | 14.9% | -9.3% |
| 20-40 | 195 | -10.6% | -12.1% | 19.5% | -6.6% |
| 40-60 | 442 | +62.6% | +48.3% | 76.9% | +30.5% |
| 60-80 | 895 | +7.8% | -1.2% | 46.6% | -4.8% |
| 80-100 You are here | 1189 | +9.5% | +1.8% | 56% | -9.6% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 1495.0, at the 99.4th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 961 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 4.3%, win rate 66.5%, lagged the market by 3.8%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.51%, win rate 52.9%, beating the market by +3.22 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
87 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.97%, win rate 47.3%, beating the market by +0.64 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
48 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.81%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +2.45 pts on average.
What does 協易機 do? Company profile
Overview
協易機械工業股份有限公司，股票代號4533，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股。公司設立日期為1982年3月2日，股票上櫃掛牌日期為2002年4月26日，總部位於桃園市龜山區南上路446號。董事長為郭雅慧，總經理兼發言人為李丞偉；實收資本額約新台幣15.84億元，已發行普通股158,434,110股。公司主要從事沖床、壓床、伺服沖床、自動化周邊設備與相關零配件之研發、製造、銷售與售後服務。公開資料顯示公司在美國、德國、墨西哥、泰國、中國等地設有分公司或營運據點，生產基地包括台灣桃園與中國昆山。2023年年報揭露公司主要從事沖床等產品之研究、開發、生產及銷售，為單一營運部門；2023年度合併營收新台幣34.98億元，其中商品銷售收入33.43億元、維修及其他收入1.55億元。主要股東與內部人方面，公開財經網站揭露董事長郭雅慧及法人董事宇宬投資等為重要持股者，Yahoo股市資料顯示董監持股比例約10.92%；完整最新5%以上主要股東名單未能由可抓取公開頁逐項確認。
Business
協易機的核心產品為各式金屬成型沖壓設備，包括C型與直壁式機械沖床、伺服沖床、直壁式2至4點機械沖床、特殊應用沖床、高速沖床，以及自動化周邊設備與整線整合方案。商業模式以資本財設備銷售為主，並搭配安裝、試車、維修、零件與售後服務；近年策略從單機銷售轉向大型噸數沖壓產線、自動化周邊整合、智慧沖壓製造與客製化解決方案。2023年年報顯示其產品銷售區域以中國、美洲、其他地區為主，且2023年度無單一外部客戶收入達合併營收10%以上，客戶集中度相對分散。2024年報導指出，協易機因應汽車景氣與電動車供應鏈變化，將汽車零件供應商營收占比由約五成降至四成後又回升，2024年法說資料指出汽車應用超過50%、高階電子與家電各約20%；2025年法說整理則指出汽車零配件約40%、高階電子含AI伺服器約20%、高階家電約20%、醫療航太精密光學等其他新興應用約20%。主要終端應用包括汽車與新能源車零件、車體鈑金、電池殼與電池蓋板、AI伺服器機殼/滑軌/散熱片、水冷散熱片、家電一體成形零件、航太零件、醫療器械、農機、3C電子、建材五金及五金沖壓件。公開資料提及其已打入德國Bosch、Miele、瑞典Electrolux、日本與美國高階家電品牌的一階或二階供應鏈體系；公司報導亦提到曾交付設備予Tesla相關電池儲能應用、漢翔航太零件供應鏈及美國汽車零配件客戶，但部分終端客戶層級與直接交易關係仍需以公司公告或合約揭露為準。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年展望的主軸是高階伺服沖床、智慧製造、自動化整線與新興應用滲透。成長動能包括：一、伺服沖床具備節能、衝頭可控、成型曲線彈性調整等特性，受惠淨零碳排、綠色工具機、智慧工廠與高張力鋼、鋁合金、薄不鏽鋼、鈦合金等難加工材料需求；二、AI伺服器帶動機殼、滑軌、機架、散熱片與水冷零件沖壓設備需求，公開報導指出AI伺服器應用營收已出現雙位數成長且占比提升；三、氫能源燃料電池金屬雙極板需要高精度伺服沖床，協易機規劃展示雙極板應用設備並將其視為中長期明星產品；四、航太、無人機、無人艇、精準醫療與精密光學等高附加價值應用可提高產品含金量；五、供應鏈去中國化與台商、中資客戶往越南、泰國、馬來西亞等東南亞布局，可能帶來設備移轉與新產線需求。2024與2025年公開報導皆指出在手訂單逾新台幣20億元，沖床交期約6至9個月，訂單能見度看到2026年上半年或更長。主要風險包括：工具機屬資本財，受全球景氣、汽車與電子資本支出循環影響大；美國關稅與貿易政策、匯率波動可能侵蝕毛利；中國市場內捲與景氣放緩、歐洲受地緣政治影響、俄烏戰爭後復甦時點不確定；大型設備存貨與客製化規格可能帶來呆滯存貨、應收款信用與交期風險；高階AI、氫能源、航太與醫療題材需觀察實際訂單、出貨與毛利率貢獻，不能僅以題材推估。
Supply Chain
- 漢翔 2634 台股上市航太公司；公開報導指出協易機伺服沖床已提供漢翔生產航太零件，切入空巴供應鏈相關應用。
- Bosch 德國未上市大型工業與汽車零組件集團；2023年年報提及協易機加強打入Bosch等高階家電/零組件供應鏈體系，非台股掛牌。
- Miele 德國未上市高階家電品牌；2023年年報提及其一階或二階供應鏈體系，非台股掛牌。
- Electrolux 瑞典上市家電品牌；2023年年報提及其供應鏈體系，非台股掛牌。
- Tesla 美國上市電動車與能源公司；協易機年報提及2017年成功交付伺服沖床於Tesla，生產電池儲能系統應用，非台股掛牌。
- 美國汽車輪圈蓋與汽車零配件客戶 公開報導指出美國汽車輪圈蓋廠購入協易機1600噸伺服沖床並帶動後續接單；客戶名稱未完整揭露，非台股掛牌或無法確認掛牌。
- AI伺服器機殼、滑軌、機架與散熱片供應鏈客戶 公開報導指出協易機切入AI伺服器金屬件與水冷散熱零件設備需求，供應台商與東南亞生產據點，具體客戶未完整揭露。
Competitors
- 金豐機器 台灣專業機械沖床與鍛造機廠，公開資料列為協易機國內沖床同業競爭者。
- 亞崴 1530 台股上市工具機廠；屬工具機族群同業，但產品線與協易機的沖床主軸不同。
- 喬福 1540 台股上市工具機廠；屬工具機族群同業，與協易機在金屬加工設備資本財市場有廣義競爭。
- 錩泰 1541 台股上市機械設備廠；公開財經資料列為工具機同業比較名單之一。
- AIDA Engineering 日本上市沖床與金屬成型設備大廠，非台股掛牌，為國際競爭者。
- Komatsu 日本上市機械集團，旗下有沖壓設備業務，非台股掛牌，為國際競爭者。
- Schuler 德國沖壓與成型設備大廠，非台股掛牌，為高階沖壓產線國際競爭者。
- SIMPAC 韓國沖床與成型設備廠，MoneyDJ列為協易機國外競爭廠商，非台股掛牌。
- 寧波米斯克 中國沖床設備業者，MoneyDJ列為協易機國外競爭廠商，非台股掛牌。
Sources（15）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.