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4534

慶騰 Electric Machinery As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 慶騰 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 12Quality 24Growth 78Momentum 78Chips 75

Is 慶騰 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 23th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.2%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 94th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 87th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 4.4% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 36.5%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.93
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 元大-土城永寧 holds 1,345 lots
  • sellers have 451 lots left, ~160 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +71% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-土城永寧 has accumulated 1,345 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 永豐金-敦南 peaked at 1,671 lots, has sold 49%, 844 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.30pp, mid holders +6, retail -4.40pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -890 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-土城永寧摩根大通美林華南永昌-忠孝元大-大里德芳台灣摩根士丹利
Distributing
永豐金-敦南元富-西松華南永昌凱基-土城新光宏遠-館前
Desks
own scale
凱基-信義群益金鼎-竹南國泰-敦南群益金鼎-宜蘭
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-土城永寧 +1,345
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +898
    sold 18%· still adding
  • 美林 +611
    sold 8%· still adding
  • 華南永昌-忠孝 +594
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-大里德芳 +577
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +523
    sold 2%· still adding

Distributing

  • 永豐金-敦南 844 left
    sold 49%· paused recently
  • 元富-西松 751 left
    sold 47%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌 305 left
    sold 68%· paused recently
  • 凱基-土城 142 left
    sold 66%· paused recently
  • 新光 98 left
    sold 74%· paused recently
  • 宏遠-館前 80 left
    sold 76%· paused recently

Desks

  • 凱基-信義 -920
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎-竹南 -717
    unclassified
  • 國泰-敦南 -668
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 群益金鼎-宜蘭 -447
    unclassified
Still selling 451 lots ~160 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +5,274 absorbed / -534 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

23 historical occurrences (since 2009-10-05)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 22, Median -2.91%, Excess +4.26%, Beat mkt rate 40.9%；60-day: Win 40.9%, Sample 22, Median -3.05%, Excess +3.19%, Beat mkt rate 45.5%；120-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 21, Median +11.39%, Excess +14.06%, Beat mkt rate 52.4%

120 days after: historical avg +23.27%

20-day +4.88%
60-day +8.19%
120-day +23.27%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
40.9%
57.1%
Sample
22
22
21
Median
-2.91%
-3.05%
+11.39%
Excess
+4.26%
+3.19%
+14.06%
Beat mkt rate
40.9%
45.5%
52.4%

Over 21 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 23.27%, beat the market by 14.06 pts; win rate 57.1%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 36.46%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

66 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 49.2%, Sample 61, Median 0%, Excess +1.12%, Beat mkt rate 41%；60-day: Win 45.8%, Sample 59, Median -1.2%, Excess +2.6%, Beat mkt rate 40.7%；120-day: Win 50%, Sample 58, Median -0.11%, Excess +2.15%, Beat mkt rate 31%

120 days after: historical avg +9.68%

20-day +2.6%
60-day +6.6%
120-day +9.68%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
49.2%
45.8%
50%
Sample
61
59
58
Median
0%
-1.2%
-0.11%
Excess
+1.12%
+2.6%
+2.15%
Beat mkt rate
41%
40.7%
31%

Over 58 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.68%, beat the market by 2.15 pts; win rate 50%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 183-24.6% -35.7% 18% -43.6%
20-40 262+22.8% -21.5% 28.2% +21.5%
40-60 203+49.8% -15% 40.4% +31.8%
60-80 352+40.5% -9% 42.3% +6.6%
80-100 You are here203+63.8% +48.1% 78.3% -55.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 177.11, at the 87.2th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-26.5%
Win rate 0% Excess -22.7%
81d
+65.3%
Win rate 74.8% Excess +7.7%
103d
Now
+20.8%
Win rate 57.5% Excess -8.8%
207d
60-day momentum down
-9.9%
Win rate 17% Excess -13.9%
324d
+42.6%
Win rate 34.7% Excess +26%
363d
+11.6%
Win rate 58.8% Excess -15.2%
245d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 207 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 20.8%, win rate 57.5%, lagged the market by 8.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.96%, win rate 31%, beating the market by +4.39 pts on average.

What does 慶騰 do? Company profile

電機機械；粉末冶金、金屬粉末射出、粉末鍛造、齒輪箱與精密傳動零組件 上櫃（櫃買中心）

Overview

慶騰精密科技股份有限公司成立於1993/02/23，2003/03/31股票正式上櫃掛牌，為台灣第一家於2003年掛牌的專業粉末冶金製造公司。總部位於苗栗縣頭份市蘆竹里中華路487巷20號。董事長為王瑞甫，總經理兼發言人為王興威。實收資本額依公開公司資料與2026股東會手冊為新台幣867,889,480元、已發行普通股86,788,948股；2026/6/23股東會議案擬辦理減資彌補虧損，若通過並經主管機關核准，減資後實收資本額擬為687,889,480元。員工規模：2024年底合計396人，2025/03/31合計386人。主要股東基準日2025/04/21：慶璉投資17,267,065股、19.89%；王光彬2.33%；黃炳賢1.62%；榮照工業1.47%；謝錫萍1.15%；其餘前十大單一持股均低於1%。公司主要生產基地包括台灣頭份廠、台灣中壢廠、中國昆山廠、中國中山廠；2025/2026法說資料另提及中山舜祥新材料科技有限公司與越南籌備處。公司取得ISO9001、ISO14001、IATF16949等認證，2026法說資料並提及ISO13485醫療系統認證。

Business

慶騰以粉末冶金（PM）、金屬粉末射出（MIM）、粉末鍛造（PF）、鍛造、齒輪箱傳動總成與精密加工為核心，商業模式為客製化材料與精密零組件開發、量產製造及齒輪箱/傳動模組整合，服務汽機車、電動工具、縫紉機、工業機械、家電、園林機械、醫療器械、AI散熱與機器人關節等應用。2024年度營收841,216仟元，產品/應用比重：電動工具457,666仟元、54.40%；汽機車163,562仟元、19.44%；其他74,760仟元、8.89%；工業機械58,608仟元、6.97%；家電用品54,597仟元、6.49%；園林機械32,023仟元、3.81%。2025年度合併營收821,001仟元、較2024年841,216仟元下滑，營業淨損50,318仟元，稅前純益1,327仟元，EPS 0.01元。主要客戶方面，2024年TTI集團銷貨138,162仟元、占16.42%，SNAP-ON集團116,373仟元、占13.83%；2025年第1季TTI占14.07%、SNAP-ON占12.32%。公司年報亦提及縫紉機客戶涵蓋全球龍頭及第二至第五名品牌，工具市場相關客戶包括TTI、MAKITA、JOHNSON、SVP、BROTHER等，但部分客戶名稱屬年報文字描述，未揭露完整交易金額。主要產品包含汽車同步器齒環、連桿、閥座、凸輪軸齒輪、行星齒輪架、商用車粉末鍛造零件、電動工具與縫紉機精密齒輪/減速機構、齒輪箱、醫療器械高強度零件、AI散熱均熱板/水冷板/高導熱材料零件、機器人RV減速機與關節零件等。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028展望以公司公開文件可確認的方向來看，慶騰正由傳統電動工具與汽機車粉末冶金零件，轉型為高端材料與精密傳動解決方案供應商。短期2025-2026重點為AI液冷散熱與封測材料升級、GPU/CPU/Memory高導熱粉末冶金散熱片與水冷板、Kovar等低膨脹材料測試座零件、AI機器人輕量化骨架與小型關節；公司自稱已具備高導熱複合材料量產能力並通過全球頂級客戶認證，2026法說資料亦列出高導銅、高導鋁合金、高導不銹鋼、高導鈦合金、無氧純銅、鈦合金、超級不銹鋼、可伐合金、鎢銅合金與複合材料等材料矩陣。中期2027-2028方向為AI機器人RV齒輪與關節模組、二類醫療MIM精密件與傳動系統、冷板與浸沒式冷卻結構件，並從零件供應升級為關鍵系統供應商。長期方向則是掌握材料配方與製程專利，整合輕量化與高導熱材料於機器人關節熱管理。成長動能包括AI伺服器功耗提高帶動液冷散熱材料需求、人形機器人關節與減速機零件需求、微創/電動醫療器材精密MIM件需求，以及新能源車、商用車、航太、重型機械與半導體測試材料應用。主要風險包括：2025年營收與營業利益仍未明顯改善且有累積虧損需減資彌補；傳統電動工具占比仍高，轉型產品需經長認證與量產爬坡；粉末冶金原料如鐵粉、鎳粉、銅粉、鉬粉、碳粉多仰賴進口，受匯率、金屬價格、交期與關稅影響；新能源車減少傳統燃油車零件需求；AI散熱、醫療與機器人市場技術規格變動快，客戶導入時程與價格競爭存在不確定性。2027-2028具體營收數字、量產規模與客戶名單未公開，屬推估方向。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 瑞典何格納斯／美國何格納斯（Hoganas） 主要鐵粉供應商；年報列為鐵粉來源，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 吉凱恩（霸州）金屬粉末／GKN相關粉末材料供應體系 2024年進貨38,525仟元、占11.27%；2025年第1季進貨18,225仟元、占23.53%；年報稱其為粉末材料主要供應商與全球粉末材料龍頭品牌，非台股掛牌。
  • 全達工業 齒輪箱機加工產品供應商；2024年進貨57,155仟元、占16.73%；未確認為台股掛牌公司。
  • 加拿大魁北克粉末材料供應商 年報列為鐵粉來源之一，非台股掛牌或未揭露具體上市代號。
  • 日本JFE鋼鐵集團 年報列為鐵粉來源之一；日本企業，非台股掛牌。
  • 寶鋼／中國寶武系粉末或鋼鐵材料供應商 年報列為鐵粉來源之一；中國大陸企業，非台股掛牌。
  • 鞍鋼 年報列為鐵粉來源之一；中國大陸企業，非台股掛牌。
  • 元基 年報列為純銅粉與石墨粉供應商；未確認為台股掛牌公司。
  • 石家莊大冶粉末材料、舜祥新材料 年報提及為金屬粉末注塑產品主要供應商；中國大陸或集團相關材料供應來源，非台股掛牌。
Downstream
  • TTI集團（Techtronic Industries） 主要銷貨客戶；2024年銷貨138,162仟元、占16.42%，2025年第1季占14.07%；香港上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • SNAP-ON集團 主要銷貨客戶；2024年銷貨116,373仟元、占13.83%，2025年第1季占12.32%；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • Makita 年報提及工具市場客戶/品牌之一；日本上市公司，非台股掛牌；交易金額未公開。
  • Brother 年報提及縫紉機/工具相關全球品牌客戶之一；日本上市公司，非台股掛牌；交易金額未公開。
  • SVP Worldwide／Singer相關縫紉機品牌體系 年報提及縫紉機相關客戶品牌之一；非台股掛牌，交易金額未公開。
  • 廣汽、東風汽車相關Tier 1供應鏈 年報提及已獲廣汽及東風汽車等Tier 1供應商納入A級合作夥伴；中國大陸汽車供應鏈，非台股掛牌，實際客戶與金額未揭露。
  • AI散熱模組廠、半導體封測/測試介面客戶、醫療設備廠 2026股東會手冊與法說資料提及正在送樣、合作或認證的目標下游客戶群；多數未揭露名稱，故不填台股代號。

Competitors

  • 台灣保來得 4536 台股上櫃粉末冶金同業，產品涵蓋粉末冶金零件，與慶騰在PM零組件市場具競爭關係。
  • 和大 1536 台股上市汽車傳動與齒輪零組件廠；與慶騰齒輪、傳動與車用零件業務部分重疊，但製程與客戶組合不同。
  • 江興鍛 4528 台股上櫃鍛造與汽車零件廠；在車用鍛造/精密零組件領域與慶騰粉末鍛造及車用零件有部分競爭或替代關係。
  • 金雨 4503 台股上櫃電機機械/自動化設備公司，與慶騰同屬櫃買電機機械族群，但直接產品競爭性較低；列為產業比較對象而非純同業。
  • 住友電工、GKN Powder Metallurgy、PMG、Miba等國際粉末冶金廠 國際粉末冶金與汽車/工業精密零件競爭者，非台股掛牌。
Sources（11）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.