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4538

大詠城 Electric Machinery As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 大詠城 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 58Quality 39Growth 68Momentum 52Chips 64

Is 大詠城 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 44th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.7%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 82th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 90th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.3% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 24.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.80
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 宏遠-台中 holds 303 lots
  • sellers have 18 lots left, ~30 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +6% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 宏遠-台中 has accumulated 303 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大-鳳中 peaked at 88 lots, has sold 28%, 63 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.34pp, mid holders +0, retail -1.43pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -7 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
宏遠-台中元大-南屯統一-新台中凱基-苗栗台新-緯城華南永昌-苗栗
Distributing
元大-鳳中台新-台南玉山-新竹凱基-台北元大-斗信群益金鼎-板橋
Desks
own scale
第一金-高雄中國信託-高雄永豐金-北高雄台新-三民
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 宏遠-台中 +303
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-南屯 +246
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 統一-新台中 +233
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-苗栗 +220
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新-緯城 +111
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 華南永昌-苗栗 +78
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 元大-鳳中 63 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 台新-台南 18 left
    sold 36%· paused recently
  • 玉山-新竹 15 left
    sold 25%· ~30 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 7 left
    sold 36%· paused recently
  • 元大-斗信 5 left
    sold 29%· paused recently
  • 群益金鼎-板橋 4 left
    sold 43%· paused recently

Desks

  • 第一金-高雄 -379
    unclassified
  • 中國信託-高雄 -267
    unclassified
  • 永豐金-北高雄 -240
    unclassified
  • 台新-三民 -160
    unclassified
Still selling 18 lots ~30 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +528 absorbed / -11 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

11 historical occurrences (since 2020-12-23)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 70%, Sample 10, Median +2.17%, Excess -2.5%, Beat mkt rate 60%；60-day: Win 33.3%, Sample 9, Median -1.91%, Excess -2.7%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%；120-day: Win 25%, Sample 8, Median -5.35%, Excess -2.06%, Beat mkt rate 75%

120 days after: historical avg -2.45%

20-day +1.74%
60-day +1.22%
120-day -2.45%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
70%
33.3%
25%
Sample
10
9
8
Median
+2.17%
-1.91%
-5.35%
Excess
-2.5%
-2.7%
-2.06%
Beat mkt rate
60%
66.7%
75%

Over 8 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 2.45%, lagged the market by 2.06 pts; win rate 25%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 23.96%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

56 historical occurrences (since 2019-01-15)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 74.1%, Sample 27, Median +2.07%, Excess +1.01%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%；60-day: Win 63%, Sample 27, Median +1.99%, Excess -1.08%, Beat mkt rate 40.7%；120-day: Win 60%, Sample 25, Median +4.05%, Excess -3.87%, Beat mkt rate 60%

120 days after: historical avg +2.99%

20-day +2.52%
60-day +3.25%
120-day +2.99%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
74.1%
63%
60%
Sample
27
27
25
Median
+2.07%
+1.99%
+4.05%
Excess
+1.01%
-1.08%
-3.87%
Beat mkt rate
55.6%
40.7%
60%

Over 25 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.99%, lagged the market by 3.87 pts; win rate 60%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 119+6.8% +6.4% 72.3% -31.1%
20-40 128+2.8% +3.6% 79.7% -24.7%
40-60 234+6.6% +4.8% 75.2% -21%
60-80 159+0.1% -2.1% 42.1% -13.1%
80-100 You are here106-8.8% -10.6% 17.9% -38.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 66.96, at the 89.6th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-8%
Win rate 15.4% Excess -16.1%
123d
+4.3%
Win rate 78.1% Excess -6.4%
128d
Now
-5.7%
Win rate 33.3% Excess -25.6%
147d
60-day momentum down
+15.8%
Win rate 96.3% Excess -3.4%
107d
+3.3%
Win rate 61.5% Excess -3.7%
192d
+1.5%
Win rate 52.7% Excess -24.2%
150d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 147 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 5.7%, win rate 33.3%, lagged the market by 25.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

What does 大詠城 do? Company profile

電機機械／機械零件鑄造／工具機鑄件 上櫃（櫃買中心）

Overview

4538 對應證券為大詠城機械股份有限公司，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股。公司成立於1980/01/10，總部與工廠位於彰化縣鹿港鎮鹿工南六路23號，統一編號60256758，主要營業為工具機鑄件生產銷售與鑄件模具開發設計。公司於2019/01/15上櫃掛牌。董事長為謝順民，總經理為謝宜軒，發言人為簡安琪。公開資料顯示資本額約新台幣5.94億元；公司登記資料顯示實收資本額594,696,040元。員工規模不同來源略有差異：104人力銀行揭露約120人，台灣鑄造品工業同業公會會員資料揭露123人，較早媒體報導曾列150人，故以約120至150人區間看待。113年度財報附表四揭露主要股東為天雁投資股份有限公司17,079,093股、持股29.06%，謝依樺7.59%，謝秉蓁6.52%，謝宜軒6.06%，楊麗雲5.36%。

Business

大詠城是專業鑄造廠，核心產品為工具機及產業機械用鑄件，包含工具機底座、床身、立座、主軸頭、PCB鑽孔機底座、臥式立柱、立式搪床工作台等，也提供鑄件模具開發設計、鑄造、熱處理與部分加工相關服務。公司官網強調工具機鑄件客製化設計與鑄造、數位化轉型、機械手臂、智慧冶金、複合應力消除控制技術與快速鑄件開發能力。113年度財報顯示公司為單一應報導部門，收入主要來自各類鑄件；113年度鑄件收入313,182千元、其他收入2,126千元，合計315,308千元。114年度年報摘錄顯示營收379,786千元，年增20.45%，其中鑄件377,854千元、占99.49%，其他1,932千元、占0.51%。113年度地區別收入為台灣172,821千元、亞洲111,197千元、歐洲16,083千元、美洲15,207千元，顯示台灣與亞洲仍為主要市場。主要客戶在財報中以甲、乙、丙匿名揭露，113年度前三大客戶收入占比分別約26%、15%、11%，客戶集中度需留意。終端應用以工具機、注塑機、PCB鑽孔機、汽車模具、半導體與高階設備相關機械結構件為主；商業模式為依客戶機械設備設計需求客製化鑄造，接單生產並透過品質、交期、材料與製程能力建立長期供應關係。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年已知結果：114年度營收379,786千元，較113年315,308千元成長20.45%，稅後淨利17,329千元，較113年11,155千元成長55.35%；公司在年報中指出雖面臨工具機出口低迷、價格競爭、匯率與關稅壓力，仍透過內部優化與外部策略調整改善營運。2026年展望：公司年報對115年度採審慎樂觀看法，認為台美關稅談判、全球減少對中國市場依賴、印度等新興市場剛性需求、匯率與競爭環境改善、全球自動化需求與日本工具機訂單回升，可望帶動台灣工具機產業溫和復甦；內銷則可能受AI伺服器與半導體設備需求帶動，使部分高階工具機內需回溫。公司策略包括永續與綠色製造、數位化與技術創新、市場多元化、供應鏈優化、成本控制、品質管理、低碳鑄造、廢砂循環、能源管理、設備升級與彈性產能調整，並提升高毛利產品與利基型鑄件比重。2027至2028年未找到公司公開量化財測，合理推估成長動能將來自高階工具機、半導體設備、AI伺服器相關設備、注塑機與全球自動化投資週期；新產品與新技術重點可能在智慧冶金、數據化品質監控、礦物鑄件、低碳鑄造與一站式客製化鑄件服務。主要風險包括工具機景氣循環、台灣工具機出口競爭力、日圓及新台幣匯率變動、關稅與地緣政治、廢鐵／廢鋼／生鐵等原料價格波動、客戶集中度、鑄造業環保法規與碳成本、公司規模較小造成營運槓桿與股票流動性風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 國內廢鐵、廢鋼與回收料供應商 大詠城鑄件原料公開報導指出以廢鐵為最大宗，另有廢銑、原銑等；供應商名稱未公開，主要屬國內回收料與金屬原料供應鏈。
  • 生鐵、廢銑、原銑等鑄造原料供應商 鑄鐵件生產需生鐵、廢銑、原銑與合金添加材料；公開資料未揭露具名供應商，stock_id留空。
  • 鑄造設備、電爐、退火爐、品管與自動化設備供應商 公司曾揭露彰濱廠投入中周波電爐、大型電腦溫控退火爐與品管設備，並導入機械手臂、智慧冶金與雲端品質監控；具名設備供應商未公開。
Downstream
  • 國內工具機整機廠 大詠城主要供應國內工具機大廠所需鑄件；財報主要客戶以甲、乙、丙代稱，未公開具名。
  • 程泰機械股份有限公司 1583 台股上市工具機整機廠，屬大詠城產品可能服務的下游工具機產業客群；未查得公開資料確認為大詠城具名客戶，列為產業鏈關聯推估。
  • 亞崴機電股份有限公司 1530 台股上市工具機廠，生產加工中心等設備，屬工具機鑄件下游應用族群；未查得公開資料確認為大詠城具名客戶，列為產業鏈關聯推估。
  • 東台精機股份有限公司 4526 台股上櫃工具機與自動化設備廠，屬工具機鑄件下游應用族群；未查得公開資料確認為大詠城具名客戶，列為產業鏈關聯推估。
  • 高鋒工業股份有限公司 4510 台股上市工具機廠，屬工具機鑄件下游應用族群；未查得公開資料確認為大詠城具名客戶，列為產業鏈關聯推估。
  • 海外工具機、注塑機及產業機械客戶 公司官網稱客戶遍及亞洲、歐洲及美洲；財報揭露113年度亞洲、歐洲、美洲均有收入，但未公開客戶名稱。

Competitors

  • 永冠能源科技集團有限公司 1589 台股上市鑄件／大型鑄鐵件廠，產品涵蓋風電、注塑機、產業機械等大型鑄件，與大詠城在部分工業鑄件與機械鑄件市場具可比性。
  • 嘉鋼精密工業股份有限公司 2067 台股上櫃鑄造與精密零組件廠，屬鑄造與機械零組件相關同業。
  • 勤美股份有限公司 1532 台股上市公司，具鑄造與金屬成形相關事業，部分鑄件／金屬零件領域可比，但公司業務多元化程度較高。
  • 慶騰精密科技股份有限公司 4534 台股上櫃機械零件與模具零件相關公司，第三方資料列為大詠城模具零件相關競爭者之一；產品線與大詠城不完全相同。
  • 大寶精密工具股份有限公司 台股上櫃機械加工與工具相關公司，第三方資料列為模具零件相關競爭者；與大詠城鑄件業務有部分產業重疊但非完全同質。
  • 國內外未上市鑄造廠 工具機鑄件市場亦面對台灣、日本、中國及東南亞鑄造廠競爭；多數未具名或非台股掛牌。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.