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4588

玖鼎電力 Other Electronics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
Revenue ≥20% Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 玖鼎電力 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 62Quality 73Growth 76Momentum 26Chips 25

Is 玖鼎電力 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 80th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.9%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 32th market percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -1.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 33.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20%, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.30
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 元大-天母 holds 196 lots
  • sellers have 143 lots left, ~70 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -14% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-天母 has accumulated 196 lots since the start (sold 7%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美林 peaked at 121 lots, has sold 82%, 22 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -3.85pp, mid holders +0, retail +2.31pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -142 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-天母永豐金-台南群益金鼎-忠孝國票-台南元富-潮州群益金鼎-東大
Distributing
美林凱基-松山富邦-公益新加坡商瑞銀摩根大通富邦-板橋
Desks
own scale
富邦-仁愛凱基-台北統一-新竹中國信託
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-天母 +196
    sold 7%· still adding
  • 永豐金-台南 +78
    sold 18%
  • 群益金鼎-忠孝 +78
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國票-台南 +74
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元富-潮州 +59
    sold 0%
  • 群益金鼎-東大 +55
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 美林 22 left
    sold 82%· paused recently
  • 凱基-松山 10 left
    sold 89%· paused recently
  • 富邦-公益 48 left
    sold 39%· ~34 sessions to clear
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 10 left
    sold 84%· ~50 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 14 left
    sold 77%· paused recently
  • 富邦-板橋 12 left
    sold 73%· paused recently

Desks

  • 富邦-仁愛 -843
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -99
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 統一-新竹 -94
    unclassified
  • 中國信託 -86
    unclassified
Still selling 143 lots ~70 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +538 absorbed / -80 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 33.36%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

12 historical occurrences (since 2024-02-15)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 54.5%, Sample 11, Median +1.22%, Excess -2.05%, Beat mkt rate 27.3%；60-day: Win 30%, Sample 10, Median -3.48%, Excess -7.65%, Beat mkt rate 30%；120-day: Win 22.2%, Sample 9, Median -8.65%, Excess -15.96%, Beat mkt rate 11.1%

120 days after: historical avg -4.47%

20-day +3.38%
60-day -0.68%
120-day -4.47%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.5%
30%
22.2%
Sample
11
10
9
Median
+1.22%
-3.48%
-8.65%
Excess
-2.05%
-7.65%
-15.96%
Beat mkt rate
27.3%
30%
11.1%

Over 9 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 4.47%, lagged the market by 15.96 pts; win rate 22.2%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 5%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

13 historical occurrences (since 2024-03-11)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 12, Median -0.97%, Excess -3.44%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%；60-day: Win 9.1%, Sample 11, Median -7.57%, Excess -14.28%, Beat mkt rate 27.3%；120-day: Win 0%, Sample 9, Median -10.11%, Excess -22.05%, Beat mkt rate 11.1%

120 days after: historical avg -13.34%

20-day -2.02%
60-day -7.52%
120-day -13.34%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
9.1%
0%
Sample
12
11
9
Median
-0.97%
-7.57%
-10.11%
Excess
-3.44%
-14.28%
-22.05%
Beat mkt rate
33.3%
27.3%
11.1%

Over 9 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 13.34%, lagged the market by 22.05 pts; win rate 0%.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

What does 玖鼎電力 do? Company profile

其他電子業；智慧電網、智慧電表、電力監控設備與電能管理系統 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

玖鼎電力資訊股份有限公司成立於2005年6月15日，總部位於新竹科學園區新竹縣寶山鄉工業東九路3-2號4樓，另有新竹市香山區景觀大道256-15號新廠。公司自工研院能源與資源研究所移轉核心團隊及智慧電表相關技術專利成立，股票代號4588，2022年7月26日公開發行、2022年11月4日登錄興櫃，2024年1月29日於台灣證券交易所上市，上市有價證券種類為普通股。公司董事長為陳展鵠，總經理與發言人為曾文良。公司官方基本資料列示資本額為新台幣429,850,000元，主要經營業務為智慧電網、電能管理系統、電力監控設備。員工規模依2023年年報為112人，截至2024年3月31日亦為112人；更新至2026年的員工數未能由官方公開資料確認。主要法人股東包含士林電機廠股份有限公司，2024年年報揭露其為持股超過10%的股東；2025年法說資料另列投資法人包含士林電機、旺玖科技、亞力電機、TIEF FUND、創新公司、和業投資、富邦證券、第一創投等，但各別最新持股比率未逐一確認。

Business

公司主要業務為智慧電網、電力監控設備及電能管理系統。2023年營收新台幣1,036,959千元，產品比重為智慧電網883,881千元、占85.24%；電力監控設備116,310千元、占11.21%；電能管理系統36,768千元、占3.55%。2024年法說資料顯示營收1,070,905千元，其中智慧電網901,811千元、占84.2%；電力監控設備127,185千元、占11.9%；電能管理系統41,909千元、占3.9%。2025年前三季營收620,271千元，其中智慧電網503,189千元、占81.1%；電力監控設備97,202千元、占15.7%；電能管理系統19,880千元、占3.2%。核心產品包括台電新型模組化智慧電表、國外ANSI與IEC智慧電表、配電盤用電力監控儀表、電能管理用電表、套裝化與客製化電能管理系統、預付費電能管理系統、非侵入式家電負載監測NIALM感測與AI識別應用、EV充電樁用電力量測與漏電偵測模組、直流電表等。商業模式以台電智慧電表標案為主要營收來源，並透過系統整合商、配電盤廠、高科技廠、大型工商用戶、學校、醫院、商業大樓、連鎖店與電信基地台等通路或終端應用銷售電力監控與能源管理產品。2023年主要客戶為台電公司，銷售869,983千元、占83.90%；士林電機為關係人與長期合作銷售客戶，2023年銷售51,049千元、占4.92%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年主要成長動能來自台電AMI智慧電表全面建置、香山新廠產能倍增、海外智慧電表、電力監控與能源管理需求、EV充電與電業加值服務。公司2025年1月啟用香山新廠，總投資約新台幣8.6億元，廠區約3,600坪，規劃兩條台電智慧電表生產線、一條電力監控儀表與電能管理設備線、一條國外智慧電表線；台電智慧電表月產能由約4萬具提升至約8萬具。公司2025年3月取得台電智慧電表標案約90萬具、金額約新台幣19.17億元，台電另可於原合約增購50%約45萬具、約9.58億元；若增購執行，2026至2028年平均年交貨量約45萬具，高於2023至2025年前期標案平均約33萬具。海外方面，公司已為東亞特定國家的下世代智慧電表進行開發，預計2026年與當地策略夥伴進行認證，目標參與2027年標案，並與國內通訊廠商合作輸出系統化方案。電力監控與電能管理方面，受ESG、碳盤查、資料中心、再生能源、儲能、配電自動化與高科技廠用電品質需求帶動，公司規劃量產高階電力監控儀表並加入暫態電力品質量測、快速頻率響應、IEC61850通訊等功能，目標每年銷售雙位數成長。衍生產品方面，AC充電樁電力量測與漏電偵測模組、DC快充直流電表已量產；配電變壓器用電力量測與無線通訊模組規劃2026年導入批量製造；NIALM電業加值服務預計2026年擴大測試用戶，2027年商業化推廣。主要風險包括營收高度集中台電標案、標案交貨時程與驗收波動、海外認證與標案不確定性、電子零件與五金塑膠件供應及成本波動、國外智慧電表市場競爭較激烈、擴產後產能利用率與新產品商業化進度不確定。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 關鍵晶片、通訊模組、電路板、五金件與塑膠件供應商 主要原物料與零組件供應來源；年報揭露主要供應商以P22-01、P23-02、P23-03等代號匿名列示，未揭露真實公司名稱，故無法確認是否為台股上市櫃公司。
  • AMETEK, Inc. 美國上市公司，玖鼎電力年報列示與其有代理合約，自2015年起代理高階智慧電表銷售；非台股掛牌，stock_id設為null。
  • 通訊廠商與後端平台廠商 AMI系統中游合作夥伴，與電表廠共同形成智慧電表通訊與後端平台方案；公司未完整揭露個別供應商名單。
Downstream
  • 台灣電力股份有限公司 國營電力公司，為玖鼎電力最大智慧電表客戶；2023年銷售占比83.90%，2025年3月再取得約90萬具、約新台幣19.17億元智慧電表標案。
  • 士林電機廠股份有限公司 1503 台股上市公司，為玖鼎電力關係人、重要股東及長期合作銷售客戶；2023年銷售占比4.92%，並具重電、配電與系統通路資源。
  • 宏碁智新股份有限公司 未確認為台股上市櫃公司；年報列示為班班有冷氣相關硬體設備買賣合約客戶。
  • 遠傳電信股份有限公司 4904 台股上市公司；年報列示為校園能源管理系統EMS案相關銷售合約客戶。
  • 中華電信股份有限公司 2412 台股上市公司；法說資料列為電能管理系統合作推廣的國內主要系統商之一。
  • 研華股份有限公司 2395 台股上市公司；法說資料列為電能管理系統合作推廣的國內主要系統商之一。
  • 台達電子工業股份有限公司 2308 台股上市公司；法說資料列為電能管理系統合作推廣的國內主要系統商之一。

Competitors

  • 大同股份有限公司 2371 台股上市公司；年報列為國內主要智慧電表供應商，營業項目包含重電產品、配電盤、變壓器、智慧電表、太陽能與系統整合。
  • 中興電工機械股份有限公司 1513 台股上市公司；年報列為國內主要智慧電表供應商，產品與服務包含供配電產品、電力工程、智慧電表、電力自動化與系統整合。
  • 康舒科技股份有限公司 6282 台股上市公司；年報列為國內主要智慧電表供應商，產品與服務包含電源供應器、交直流轉換器、智慧電表與智慧電表通訊系統。
  • 華新儀表股份有限公司 年報列為國內主要智慧電表供應商，主要產品為智慧型電表與電子式電表；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 斯其大科技股份有限公司 年報提及其提供智慧電表通訊系統；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • Schneider Electric 海外同業，年報列為全球電力監控設備領導性廠家之一；非台股掛牌。
  • ABB 海外同業，年報列為全球電力監控設備領導性廠家之一；非台股掛牌。
  • Siemens 海外同業，年報列為全球電力監控設備與能源管理系統重要廠商之一；非台股掛牌。
  • 三菱電機株式會社 日本上市公司，年報列為全球電力監控設備領導性廠家之一，亦為士林電機主要股東；非台股掛牌。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.