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4714

永捷 Chemicals As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 永捷 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 44Quality 24Growth 90Momentum 9Chips 14

Is 永捷 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 26th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.3%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 62th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 52th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -3.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 80.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral -0.10
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 兆豐-復興 holds 719 lots
  • sellers have 892 lots left, ~94 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -25% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 兆豐-復興 has accumulated 719 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 元大-松江 peaked at 626 lots, has sold 88%, 72 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.81pp, mid holders -3, retail +1.48pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,553 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
兆豐-復興美林凱基-虎尾元大-潮州元大-善化元大-民生三民
Distributing
元大-松江國泰-敦南元大-沙鹿統一-新台中統一-桃園台新-台南
Desks
own scale
凱基-台北兆豐-南京統一-板橋富邦-板橋
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 兆豐-復興 +719
    sold 0%
  • 美林 +617
    sold 20%
  • 凱基-虎尾 +450
    sold 0%
  • 元大-潮州 +446
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-善化 +425
    sold 4%
  • 元大-民生三民 +390
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 元大-松江 72 left
    sold 88%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 382 left
    sold 30%· ~47 sessions to clear
  • 元大-沙鹿 311 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 統一-新台中 183 left
    sold 54%· paused recently
  • 統一-桃園 63 left
    sold 74%· paused recently
  • 台新-台南 86 left
    sold 46%· paused recently

Desks

  • 凱基-台北 -1,333
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 兆豐-南京 -837
    unclassified
  • 統一-板橋 -597
    unclassified
  • 富邦-板橋 -560
    unclassified
Still selling 892 lots ~94 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,291 absorbed / -334 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,205 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 80.92%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

93 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 56.3%, Sample 87, Median +1.24%, Excess -0.49%, Beat mkt rate 46%；60-day: Win 42.4%, Sample 85, Median -2.5%, Excess -2.61%, Beat mkt rate 38.8%；120-day: Win 47.6%, Sample 82, Median -1.42%, Excess -6.18%, Beat mkt rate 43.9%

120 days after: historical avg -0.32%

20-day +0.85%
60-day +0.75%
120-day -0.32%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56.3%
42.4%
47.6%
Sample
87
85
82
Median
+1.24%
-2.5%
-1.42%
Excess
-0.49%
-2.61%
-6.18%
Beat mkt rate
46%
38.8%
43.9%

Over 82 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 0.32%, lagged the market by 6.18 pts; win rate 47.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 210+4.3% +4.5% 64.3% -38.4%
20-40 184+0.9% -2.6% 38.6% -19.7%
40-60 You are here239+12.7% +16.4% 70.7% -4.3%
60-80 827+20.3% +14% 66.3% +5.3%
80-100 951+10.8% +6.4% 61.5% -5.6%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 26.64, at the 52.2th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-10.2%
Win rate 14% Excess -30.8%
93d
+2%
Win rate 48.6% Excess -9.5%
315d
+5.1%
Win rate 45.4% Excess -0.1%
872d
60-day momentum down
+2.1%
Win rate 46.8% Excess -14.3%
171d
Now
+7.5%
Win rate 56.9% Excess -5.4%
339d
+14.9%
Win rate 66.9% Excess +5%
740d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 339 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 7.5%, win rate 56.9%, lagged the market by 5.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.69%, win rate 43.5%, beating the market by +3.52 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

45 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.06%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -4.52 pts on average.

What does 永捷 do? Company profile

化學工業；PU樹脂、PU合成皮材料與不動產開發認列 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

4714 對應證券為永捷，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，不是 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於1991/08/29，1997/11/22公開發行，2000/03/27上櫃，統一編號86123874，總部與安定廠位於台南市安定區安加里258之26號，另有麻豆廠。公司前身為永捷高分子工業股份有限公司，2019年更名為永捷創新科技股份有限公司。主要經營業務為PU樹脂、住宅及大樓開發租售。依2026年6月10日公告，董事長因董事改選由『梅森控股有限公司代表人張祐銘』改為『宸捷國際有限公司代表人張祐銘』，實質仍由張祐銘續任；總經理由2025/09/01起由蕭世能暫代。公開基本資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣17.81億元，普通股約1.7809億股，特別股0股。2024年報列示2025/03/28合併員工數303人；2024永續報告書公司本體員工數62人，兩者統計範圍不同。2024年報主要股東包括上曜建設開發股份有限公司22,506,152股、持股12.64%，其餘前十大單一股東持股多低於1.1%。

Business

永捷核心為高分子化工材料製造與銷售，主要產品包括PU樹脂、PU接著劑、尼龍樹脂、聚酯多元醇、架橋劑、可撓性顯示器表面耐磨層材料，產品應用於鞋類、皮包、成衣用PU合成皮與人工皮革、PVC乳膠皮與榔皮接著、尼龍定型、防水尼龍布、TPU原料、二液型PU樹脂與壓克力樹脂架橋，以及柔性AMOLED高硬度耐磨保護蓋板材料。2024年報揭露產品營收比重：PU樹脂52.93%、乾濕式PU合成皮與塑膠皮29.90%、剖層皮11.90%、投資性不動產租金1.85%、出售房地1.43%、售電0.97%、其他1.02%。商業模式為承接下游合成皮、鞋材、紡織、服飾、家具、汽車內裝、電子材料與建築應用客戶需求，透過配方調整、合成、分析、測試與客戶共同開發，銷售PU樹脂、合成皮及高機能材料；另因集團化布局與建案完工交屋，部分年度營收與獲利會受到房產銷售認列影響。2024合併營收為新台幣8.25783億元，較2023年成長59.88%，主要來自客戶訂單回流、新產品銷售、子公司合併營收增加與投資利益認列；2025全年營收據公開股市資料為15.29億元，2026年1至5月累計營收約10.43億元、年增約92.56%。主要客戶在2024年報以代碼揭露，單一前三大客戶占比分別約13.25%、10.75%、10.57%，未揭露實名；新聞與產業資料顯示終端需求來自國際運動品牌供應鏈、歐美環保材料需求、半導體與電子材料應用、建築與家具等。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以『環保永續材料、高附加價值PU、合成皮垂直整合、可撓式光學/電子材料、房產案認列』為主要變數。公司2025營運計畫明確列出：發展DMF/DMAC-free材料、無溶劑濕氣硬化PUR與TPU、高固含量與水性產品、家具與汽車皮革用水油性材料、水性表面處理劑、特殊聚酯多元醇、快乾架橋劑、服飾用乾濕式PU改質與水性產品，並在工研院協助下提升精密塗佈技術，加速hard coat film量產。2025年新聞指出環保水性材料、防彈纖維、可撓式HC材料需求增加，並受惠歐洲地區永續要求、國防國造、信立與普大整合，以及建案完工認列。2026年展望方面，公司表示國際運動品牌庫存去化後，世界盃備貨、高機能鞋材與服飾材料PU樹脂、乾濕式PU合成皮拉貨回溫；歐美品牌對碳足跡與化學安全要求提高，環保水性樹脂、無溶劑與高固含量樹脂出貨占比提升，並與國內大廠合作汽車內裝、電子、光學膜等非鞋材應用。2027至2028屬推估：若水性/無溶劑材料完成品牌驗證並擴大導入，永捷有機會提高高毛利產品占比；若可撓式HC材料、光學膜、電子材料與防彈纖維進入穩定放量，可降低對傳統PU合成皮景氣循環的依賴。主要風險包括：PU樹脂仍高度受油價、TDI/MDI/DMF/MEK等原料價格與匯率波動影響；MDI/TDI仰賴進口；下游鞋材與合成皮需求具庫存循環；房產認列使營收與獲利波動加大；2026年公司曾公告重編2025年前三季合併財報，投資人需追蹤財報品質與併購會計處理；環保材料題材若未轉化為穩定毛利與現金流，市場評價可能修正。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台塑石化股份有限公司 6505 上游石化原料生態系廠商，與PU樹脂所需丙烯、苯等石化基礎原料相關；年報未揭露其為永捷直接供應商，列為產業上游參考。
  • 南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司 1303 台灣大型塑化與化工材料供應商，與聚酯、多元醇、塑化材料等產業鏈相關；未確認為永捷直接供應商。
  • 東聯化學股份有限公司 1710 乙二醇等石化中間材料供應商，乙二醇為聚酯多元醇上游原料之一；未確認為永捷直接供應商。
  • 日本、韓國、美國MDI/TDI供應商 年報指出MDI、TDI目前全數仰賴國外供應，MDI主要來自日本，其次包括美國、韓國；年報未揭露供應商實名。
  • Vendor W、ZZ1250、自然人H等年報匿名供應商 2024年報揭露主要供應商以代碼呈現，Vendor W占2024年進貨64.25%，未揭露實名，故stock_id設為null。
Downstream
  • 信立化學工業股份有限公司 4303 上曜集團關係企業與永捷子公司；新聞指出永捷提供PU樹脂配方，信立與普大負責合成皮與材料生產，形成MIT垂直整合供應鏈。
  • 普大應用材料股份有限公司 信立旗下或集團關係材料公司，非台股上市櫃；負責合成皮、水性環保皮革等生產，與永捷、信立上下游整合。
  • 上曜建設開發股份有限公司 1316 主要股東與上曜集團關係企業；與永捷不動產開發、建案及集團資源整合相關，非PU樹脂直接下游客戶。
  • 斐成開發科技股份有限公司 3313 集團關係企業，參與危老都更與建案開發；與永捷房產案及集團多元布局相關。
  • 三芳化學工業股份有限公司 1307 PU合成皮與鞋材廠；舊版產業資料曾列為永捷主要客戶之一，現行年報客戶已匿名，是否仍為直接客戶需再確認。
  • 國際運動品牌與鞋材供應鏈 新聞稱永捷為國際品牌供應鏈重要夥伴，終端應用包含高機能鞋材、服飾材料；品牌多為海外或非台股公司，且多為間接供應關係。
  • 電子、光學膜、汽車內裝、家具與建築材料客戶 公司揭露正拓展可撓式HC材料、光學膜、汽車內裝、家具皮革、水性表處等應用；多數客戶未揭露實名。

Competitors

Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.