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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 5251 天鉞電. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=5251
5251
steady quality, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 天鉞電 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 45th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.8%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 100th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -7.2% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -12% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 國泰-敦南 has accumulated 441 lots since the start (sold 2%), still adding.
- Main distributor 美林 peaked at 194 lots, has sold 38%, 121 left, ~31 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.01pp, mid holders -1, retail +1.93pp — drifting down to retail.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -265 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 國泰-敦南 +441
- 凱基-士林 +213
- 元大-大統 +133
- 國泰-台中 +115
- 兆豐-高雄 +107
- 華南永昌-楠梓 +100
Distributing
- 美林 121 left
- 港商野村 51 left
- 大昌-樹林 7 left
- 新光-台中 10 left
- 國泰-新莊 24 left
- 致和-崇德 10 left
Desks
- 新加坡商瑞銀 -487
- 第一金-新興 -235
- 凱基-台北 -205
- 華南永昌-桃園 -199
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 20-40 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 40-60 | 25 | Insufficient data | |||
| 60-80 | 92 | +2.7% | +0.2% | 52.2% | -32.7% |
| 80-100 You are here | 358 | +31.9% | +15.8% | 88.5% | -162% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 3065.0, at the 99.5th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
(0d)
(5d)
(0d)
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 248 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 26.6%, win rate 79.8%, lagged the market by 41.4%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
12 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.29%, win rate 41.7%, beating the market by -3.37 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
61 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.57%, win rate 46.9%, beating the market by +6.06 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
19 times historically; 60-day forward avg -3.17%, win rate 27.8%, beating the market by -8.66 pts on average.
What does 天鉞電 do? Company profile
Overview
天鉞電子股份有限公司，統一編號86710851，成立於1992年5月23日，總部位於新北市中和區中正路700號3樓之3，2012年11月26日上櫃。可查基本資料顯示董事長為汪攘夷、總經理為徐宛瑜、發言人為莊士漢；實收資本額約新台幣337,333,770元，已發行普通股約33,733,377股。104人力銀行資料列示員工人數約200人。公司前身資料可見變更前名稱為普行科技股份有限公司。主要股東與董監持股方面，可查資料顯示香港商ARGUS HOLDINGS LIMITED約持有7,600,000股，董事長汪攘夷約持有2,170,978股，董事黃仁虎約持有300,000股；另經理人徐宛瑜持股數於不同資料頁有約38萬至47萬股差異，故僅作區間式揭露。公司在中國東莞設有產品開發與製造據點，荷蘭子公司ALC Electronics B.V.負責歐洲自有品牌銷售。
Business
公司主要經營智慧型家庭安防應用相關產品，定位為無線安防安控系統、智慧家庭與門禁安防產品的研發、製造與銷售業者。主要產品包括安全監視產品、智慧網路攝影機、數位無線監控錄影系統、可視門鈴、智能電子門鎖、車用行車記錄器與車用周邊、紅外線與雷射防盜偵測器等。自有品牌包括SecuFirst與ALC，並在台灣代理OPTEX、ABUS、dormakaba等品牌。商業模式包含自有品牌線上與線下通路銷售、國際客戶ODM/OEM設計製造服務、台灣代理品牌銷售，以及歐洲子公司品牌銷售。可查年報聚合資料列示114年度產品組合為安全監視產品185,898千元、約60.88%；智能電子門鎖38,941千元、約12.75%；車用周邊產品35,620千元、約11.66%；其他44,920千元、約14.71%。公司法說資料列示2025年前三季合併營收240,228千元，年增36%；Yahoo與嗨投資月營收資料列示2025全年累計營收約305,379千元，較2024年276,821千元成長約10.3%。終端應用涵蓋居家安全、商用監控、門禁控制、智慧家庭、車用影像紀錄、長者與幼兒照護、辦公室與戶外防盜偵測等。主要市場包含台灣、歐洲、北美、日本、澳洲等，公司網站與104資料均提及歐美、日本、澳洲等地銷售實績；法說資料則將歐洲與北美列為重要外銷市場。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年公司營運受惠安防、智慧門禁與車用自有品牌需求回溫，前三季營收年增36%，全年累計營收約3.05億元、年增約10%。2025至2026年公司策略聚焦由單一產品製造商轉型為安全科技解決方案供應商，從單一攝影機、門鎖產品擴展為智慧安防生態系，重點包括智慧攝影機、智慧門鈴、智慧門控與電子鎖、邊緣運算設備、全屋感測報警、Matter協議整合、AI本地運算、JSW Cloud與手機App中控平台。公司法說資料揭露四大策略方向為重新定義產品定位、提升技術門檻、配合客戶供應鏈重整、提升商業營運模式；年報聚合資料亦提到由高度客製化轉向全面客製化，與一級品牌客戶深化合作，開發智能鎖、傳感器與IPC整合型產品，增加軟體收入與延伸服務。2027至2028年並無公司量化財測；依已揭露策略推估，成長動能將來自智慧居家安防滲透率提升、歐美去中化與可信任供應鏈需求、Matter智慧家庭標準普及、AI邊緣辨識與隱私資安需求、訂閱費以外的差異化產品定位，以及ALC車用周邊與SecuFirst歐洲品牌布局。主要風險包括公司規模小且營收基期低、客戶與訂單波動、匯率與業外匯兌損益影響、全球通膨與關稅成本、地緣政治與供應鏈重整成本、歐盟AI法案與隱私資安合規要求、智慧家庭平台競爭激烈、安防硬體價格競爭，以及東莞製造基地可能面臨的供應鏈與貿易限制。
Supply Chain
- 天鉞電子（東莞）有限公司 公司中國東莞製造與開發據點，負責軟硬體及產品開發製造；未在台股掛牌。
- OPTEX Group 日本高精度感測器品牌，天鉞電2023年取得台灣地區總代理業務；非台股掛牌。
- ABUS 德國安全科技品牌，法說資料列為台灣代理品牌之一；非台股掛牌。
- dormakaba 門禁與安全解決方案品牌，法說資料列為台灣代理品牌之一；非台股掛牌。
Competitors
Sources（12）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.