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5386

青雲 Computer & Peripherals As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 青雲 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 47Quality 94Growth 98Momentum 88Chips 37

Is 青雲 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~87% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 92.6%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 7th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 19th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.3% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 412.8%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.36
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 國票-北高雄 holds 590 lots
  • sellers have 723 lots left, ~100 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +455% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 國票-北高雄 has accumulated 590 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 1,500 lots, has sold 88%, 182 left, ~48 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.09pp, mid holders +0, retail +1.45pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -327 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
國票-北高雄永豐金證券元富-新店富邦-仁愛凱基-高美館第一金-台南
Distributing
美商高盛摩根大通新加坡商瑞銀統一元大證券第一金-自由
Desks
own scale
兆豐-復興華南永昌凱基-雙和台新-新店
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 國票-北高雄 +590
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金證券 +579
    sold 18%
  • 元富-新店 +292
    sold 6%
  • 富邦-仁愛 +212
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 凱基-高美館 +125
    sold 3%
  • 第一金-台南 +117
    sold 2%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 182 left
    sold 88%· ~48 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 309 left
    sold 65%· paused recently
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 76 left
    sold 89%· ~17 sessions to clear
  • 統一 239 left
    sold 41%· paused recently
  • 元大證券 67 left
    sold 78%· ~14 sessions to clear
  • 第一金-自由 51 left
    sold 77%· ~57 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 兆豐-復興 -692
    unclassified
  • 華南永昌 -601
    unclassified
  • 凱基-雙和 -388
    unclassified
  • 台新-新店 -327
    unclassified
Still selling 723 lots ~100 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +524 absorbed / -485 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -256 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 412.79%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

100 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 49.5%, Sample 99, Median -0.06%, Excess +5.88%, Beat mkt rate 47.5%；60-day: Win 48.5%, Sample 97, Median -2.39%, Excess +13.26%, Beat mkt rate 39.2%；120-day: Win 48.9%, Sample 94, Median -1.07%, Excess +13.06%, Beat mkt rate 44.7%

120 days after: historical avg +19.9%

20-day +7.37%
60-day +17.99%
120-day +19.9%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
49.5%
48.5%
48.9%
Sample
99
97
94
Median
-0.06%
-2.39%
-1.07%
Excess
+5.88%
+13.26%
+13.06%
Beat mkt rate
47.5%
39.2%
44.7%

Over 94 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 19.9%, beat the market by 13.06 pts; win rate 48.9%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here0Insufficient data
20-40 138+12.6% -2.4% 39.1% -6.3%
40-60 846+93.6% +59.8% 79.4% +73.3%
60-80 1031+33.5% +19.7% 62.2% +15.3%
80-100 553+12.5% -12% 34.2% -0.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 9.9, at the 18.8th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+286.9%
Win rate 100% Excess +251.4%
31d
+67.6%
Win rate 65.2% Excess +55.9%
626d
-1.3%
Win rate 39.9% Excess -8.5%
722d
60-day momentum down
+165.6%
Win rate 90% Excess +146.3%
40d
+32.1%
Win rate 65.9% Excess +24.3%
736d
+2.3%
Win rate 42% Excess -5.4%
476d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 31 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 286.9%, win rate 100%, beat the market by 251.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +71.88%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by +61.4 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.65%, win rate 52%, beating the market by -3.27 pts on average.

What does 青雲 do? Company profile

電腦及週邊設備業／電子通路與記憶體、伺服器產品代理 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

青雲國際科技股份有限公司為上櫃普通股，成立於1984/06/26，1999/05/13掛牌上櫃，總部位於新北市中和區中正路716號6樓。公開資料顯示董事長為柯聰源、總經理為呂仰鎧，發言人為呂仰鎧。Yahoo股市2026/02/12資料列示股本為360,808,810元、已發行普通股36,080,881股；Goodinfo列示資本額約3.61億元。公司網站與年報顯示主要從事電腦硬體及零件、資訊設備與週邊設備、高階伺服器記憶體模組之製造加工及買賣，但113年年報也明確說明公司目前業務主要為品牌代理通路銷售服務，非屬製造業，僅部分產品有包裝產線。113年年報主要股東名單截至114/04/05包括柯聰源持股8,577,451股、27.05%，仕達投資736,881股、2.32%，寶嘉投資控股618,139股、1.95%，閃耀投資顧問593,973股、1.87%，蘇銘言500,000股、1.58%，劉兆茜367,439股、1.16%，呂仰鎧342,399股、1.08%等。年報列示113年度員工合計33人，114/03/31亦為33人；Goodinfo另揭露2025年全體員工平均年薪250.6萬元。股利政策方面，年報載明原則上至少就累積未分配盈餘提撥50%以上分派股東紅利，現金股利不得低於股利總數20%，但每股配發股利在2元以下得全部以股票股利方式發放。

Business

青雲已由早期顯示器、主機板與繪圖卡自有品牌業務，轉向記憶體、SSD、板卡、伺服器與AI相關硬體之代理通路與加值服務。113年度產品營收比重為記憶體產品3,722,933仟元、83.89%，板卡產品313,763仟元、7.07%，伺服器產品292,222仟元、6.59%，其他108,699仟元、2.45%；112年度記憶體占比為67.73%，顯示記憶體代理比重提升。主要商品包括記憶體模組及固態硬碟、品牌代理板卡、品牌代理伺服器設備、品牌筆記型電腦與電子零組件。MoneyDJ整理其主要經營項目包含Micron產品代理、技嘉板卡代理與主機板經銷、Kikstorage SSD與記憶卡等；公司官網產品線則列有Supermicro、美光Micron/Crucial SSD與記憶體、技嘉主機板/顯示卡、技嘉伺服器/工作站、技嘉筆電/Mini-PC、AI智慧應用、Intel伺服器、MSI EPS Server、PNY顯示卡、JWIPC OPS、DLI儲存等。113年銷售區域比重為內銷70.74%、北美洲20.20%、亞洲8.76%、其他0.30%。113年報揭露近兩年單一供應商與客戶以代號匿名揭露，113年度最大供應商A占進貨淨額88.10%，顯示對主要原廠供貨依賴高；113年度主要客戶C、D、A分別占銷貨淨額29.75%、16.76%、12.61%，但公司說明其餘銷貨客戶比率皆低於10%。2026年最新營運方面，經濟日報報導青雲2026年第1季稅後純益15.53億元、EPS 43.05元，創單季新高；主要營收來源為高階記憶體產品，占營收比重超過七成，其他為板卡、伺服器與週邊產品。Yahoo股市營收資料顯示2026/01單月合併營收2,461,029仟元、年增406.81%，2026/05單月合併營收2,430,798仟元、年增412.79%，2026年前五月累計營收已大幅高於去年同期。商業模式以代理原廠產品、通路銷售、庫存管理、即時供貨、維修換貨、經銷服務與企業／資料中心專案需求支援為主，較不像純製造商以自有產能擴張驅動。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以記憶體供需循環、AI伺服器建置、AI PC與企業資料中心投資為核心。公司113年年報對2025年展望指出，AI、資料中心、邊緣運算、AI PC與AI手機將推升記憶體容量需求；HBM產能排擠、DDR5需求增加與原廠減產可能使傳統DRAM供應偏緊，帶動DRAM價格回升；NAND Flash則面臨消費性電子與企業IT需求疲弱、中國供應商競爭與供給過剩風險，但企業級SSD與邊緣AI需求仍可能支撐部分需求。公司短期計畫為持續經營代理品牌記憶體模組與品牌主板、強化代理產品類別與交叉行銷；長期計畫為開發高毛利工業、應用型、特殊用途工控板卡、美容美甲光療機產品及工業電腦記憶體／模組，並持續尋求產品與通路突破。2025年底法說相關報導指出，青雲新增人工智慧部門，將開拓工控與AI應用市場，因應AI資料中心與企業級應用需求，並規劃每年增加2至3種代理品項；同時與美超微關係更緊密，代理AI伺服器產品線，受惠台灣、日本、東南亞AI資料中心需求。2026年產業外部資料方面，TrendForce預估2026年全球伺服器出貨年增12.8%、AI伺服器出貨年增逾28%，HBM需求仍高速成長，記憶體市場收入在2026、2027年可能續創高；這有利於青雲的高階記憶體、SSD、AI伺服器與GPU相關代理業務。但2026至2028年仍有重大不確定性：一是公司對主要供應商集中度高，原廠配貨、代理權、價格與信用條件變化會直接影響營收與毛利；二是代理通路業務通常毛利率較製造或IP業務低，若記憶體報價反轉或客戶延後採購，庫存跌價與應收帳款風險會放大；三是2026年第1季超高EPS可能含記憶體價格急漲、供需錯配與客戶急單因素，是否可延續至2027至2028尚無公司量化指引；四是AI伺服器供應鏈若因GPU、ASIC、BMC、電源、散熱或機櫃零組件交期拉長，可能影響青雲出貨節奏；五是匯率、關稅、地緣政治與美中科技管制可能影響原廠供貨與終端需求。整體而言，2025至2026成長動能明確偏強，2027至2028需觀察AI資本支出是否延續、記憶體新增產能是否造成價格反轉，以及青雲能否把短期通路景氣轉化為穩定客戶、更多代理線與企業級解決方案能力。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 美光科技 Micron Technology／Crucial 主要記憶體與SSD原廠供應商；青雲為其台灣代理商。美光為美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 技嘉科技 2376 青雲代理技嘉消費性電子產品、主機板、顯示卡、伺服器／工作站相關產品；技嘉為台股上市公司。
  • 微星科技 2377 青雲產品線包含MSI EPS Server，新聞亦提及其代理微星商用伺服器產品；微星為台股上市公司。
  • Super Micro Computer／美超微 AI伺服器與商用伺服器產品供應商，報導稱青雲代理美超微全系列產品線；美超微為美國上市公司SMCI，非台股掛牌。
  • 戴爾科技 Dell Technologies 報導提及青雲代理Dell商用伺服器產品；戴爾為美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 英特爾 Intel 公司官網列有Intel伺服器產品線；Intel為美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • PNY Technologies 公司官網列有PNY顯示卡產品線；PNY為非台股掛牌公司。
  • 海康存儲／Hangzhou Hikstorage MoneyDJ整理其產品包含Kikstorage SSD與記憶卡；非台股掛牌。
Downstream
  • 全台經銷商與通路商 公司年報與MoneyDJ資料顯示其深耕通路市場，MoneyDJ提到約500家經銷商及300家會員；多為未具名或未上市通路。
  • 企業級與AI資料中心客戶 報導指出青雲受惠台灣、日本、東南亞AI資料中心需求，尤其美超微AI伺服器導入；客戶多未具名，無法確認台股代號。
  • OEM、工控、醫療、商用與消費資訊應用客戶 年報列示記憶體、快閃記憶體與板卡應用於行動裝置、桌機、筆電、工業電腦、伺服器、醫療保健、POS、ATM、數位看板等；未揭露具名客戶。

Competitors

  • 展碁國際 6776 MoneyDJ列為青雲同業競爭廠商；上市電子通路公司，經營系統資訊、數位娛樂與電腦軟硬體通路。
  • 富基電通 MoneyDJ列為青雲同業競爭廠商；為興櫃電子通路公司，非上市櫃，故stock_id依規範填null。
  • 至上電子 8112 電子通路與記憶體代理相關同業，市場常將其與記憶體通路族群比較；台股上市。
  • 擎亞國際 8096 電子零組件通路商，代理記憶體與半導體產品，屬記憶體通路相關比較對象；台股上櫃。
  • 文曄科技 3036 大型半導體通路商，業務規模與產品廣度高於青雲，但在電子零組件通路與原廠代理模式上具可比性；台股上市。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.