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5905

南仁湖 Tourism & Hospitality As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 南仁湖 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 35Quality 19Growth 98Momentum 39Chips 85

Is 南仁湖 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 20th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.9%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 93th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 92th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 7.3% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 427.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.37
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 群益金鼎-開元 holds 1,013 lots
  • sellers have 1,361 lots left, ~155 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 群益金鼎-開元 has accumulated 1,013 lots since the start (sold 15%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 國泰-敦南 peaked at 935 lots, has sold 29%, 668 left, ~111 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -3.19pp, mid holders -1, retail +2.19pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,895 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
群益金鼎-開元玉山-台南台新-高雄群益金鼎-建成群益金鼎-新竹國泰-台南
Distributing
國泰-敦南永豐金-新莊國泰-台中中國信託台新-宜蘭元大-樹林
Desks
own scale
統一-三多新加坡商瑞銀美商高盛凱基-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 群益金鼎-開元 +1,013
    sold 15%· still adding
  • 玉山-台南 +485
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新-高雄 +409
    sold 15%
  • 群益金鼎-建成 +394
    sold 10%
  • 群益金鼎-新竹 +281
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-台南 +250
    sold 5%

Distributing

  • 國泰-敦南 668 left
    sold 29%· ~111 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-新莊 286 left
    sold 43%· paused recently
  • 國泰-台中 202 left
    sold 31%· ~155 sessions to clear
  • 中國信託 133 left
    sold 46%· ~33 sessions to clear
  • 台新-宜蘭 110 left
    sold 55%· paused recently
  • 元大-樹林 95 left
    sold 55%· ~19 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 統一-三多 -1,562
    unclassified
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -1,087
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美商高盛 -1,056
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -860
    day-trade · selling pressure
Still selling 1,361 lots ~155 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,261 absorbed / -600 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -639 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 427.01%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

49 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 44.7%, Sample 38, Median -0.77%, Excess -1.04%, Beat mkt rate 31.6%；60-day: Win 47.2%, Sample 36, Median -1.65%, Excess -0.38%, Beat mkt rate 41.7%；120-day: Win 51.4%, Sample 35, Median +0.83%, Excess -5.14%, Beat mkt rate 37.1%

120 days after: historical avg +5.55%

20-day -0.17%
60-day +4.13%
120-day +5.55%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
44.7%
47.2%
51.4%
Sample
38
36
35
Median
-0.77%
-1.65%
+0.83%
Excess
-1.04%
-0.38%
-5.14%
Beat mkt rate
31.6%
41.7%
37.1%

Over 35 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.55%, lagged the market by 5.14 pts; win rate 51.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 46+15.4% -0.2% 41.3% -17.9%
20-40 195+17.4% +6.7% 69.7% +1.9%
40-60 191+13.3% +2.8% 70.2% -0.2%
60-80 217+6.9% +0.8% 54.4% -0.9%
80-100 You are here355+30.2% +23.8% 73.5% -2.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 121.0, at the 92.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+11.5%
Win rate 49% Excess +1.2%
96d
+28.1%
Win rate 67.5% Excess +19.7%
154d
+4.8%
Win rate 47.5% Excess -7%
427d
60-day momentum down
+14.9%
Win rate 87.2% Excess -3%
47d
-0.2%
Win rate 41.1% Excess -5.3%
158d
Now
+9.8%
Win rate 84.7% Excess -0.7%
242d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 242 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9.8%, win rate 84.7%, lagged the market by 0.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.6%, win rate 62.5%, beating the market by +7.41 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

60 times historically; 60-day forward avg -2.44%, win rate 42.4%, beating the market by -5.35 pts on average.

What does 南仁湖 do? Company profile

觀光餐旅 上櫃（櫃買中心）

Overview

5905 對應證券為南仁湖育樂股份有限公司之普通股，市場別為上櫃，產業別為觀光餐旅。公司成立於1989年11月21日，於2003年6月17日在證券櫃檯買賣中心上櫃；總部位於高雄市苓雅區光華一路206號21樓之2。依最新可查市場資料，董事長為鄭宜芳，總經理及發言人為何曉光，代理發言人為朱碧蓮；實收資本額約新台幣28.16億元，已發行普通股281,623,235股。113年報揭露，截至114年3月31日員工合計290人，平均年齡44.24歲、平均服務年資5.80年。113年報揭露114年4月25日前十大股東包括高雄汽車客運23,501,151股、8.34%，嘉客來投資22,249,628股、7.90%，東正投資顧問18,858,316股、6.70%，鄭宜芳12,857,177股、4.57%，呂金發11,189,486股、3.97%，詠瑞禾10,903,225股、3.87%，尚發營造7,923,930股、2.81%，大豪森5,486,888股、1.95%，上宇橙3,570,665股、1.27%，花旗託管柏克萊資本SBL/PB投資專戶2,723,384股、0.97%；法人股東背後與東正投資、嘉客來、高雄客運及鍾嘉村、鍾育霖等三地集團相關人物具關聯。

Business

南仁湖是休閒娛樂、國道/公路服務區、交通場站與商場營運、海洋館OT、餐飲零售及不動產開發並行的服務業公司。主要營運內容包含小墾丁渡假村客房、餐飲、休閒設施與夜宿/套裝體驗；國立海洋生物博物館之委託經營；中壢、湖口、古坑、楊梅等國道服務區/休息站及台東大武之心南迴休憩區之餐飲、商品與專櫃營運；臺大醫院新竹分院美食街；台中海洋生態館OT、高雄海洋館、安平港水岸複合觀光遊憩區、平實綜合轉運站等投資或營運案；另有不動產開發。113年度合併營收978,860千元，依部門為休閒娛樂493,173千元約50.38%、國內服務區278,585千元約28.46%、國外服務區15,002千元約1.53%、其他192,100千元約19.62%；依收入性質為休閒育樂359,703千元約36.75%、自營銷貨115,013千元約11.75%、專櫃銷貨241,704千元約24.69%、餐旅服務120,941千元約12.36%、其他141,499千元約14.45%。114年前三季合併營收788,024千元，部門別為休閒娛樂410,460千元、國內服務區219,839千元、國外服務區11,918千元、其他145,807千元，顯示休閒娛樂與國內服務區仍為核心。公司商業模式以政府OT/BOT或租賃經營權、服務區/商場專櫃抽成與自營餐飲零售、住宿與門票活動收入、不動產開發收入為主。主要銷售對象為散客，年報明確揭露無重大單一客戶；終端需求來自國旅與入境旅客、國道用路人、醫院員工與訪客、海洋館/博物館遊客、商場承租品牌與在地農特產品消費者。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望偏向「多點營運權擴張與觀光復甦受益，但獲利修復仍具挑戰」。成長動能包括：1. 觀光政策面，政府Tourism 2030以2030年觀光產值兆元、主題遊程、國旅留宿與智慧景區升級為方向，對南仁湖的海生館、渡假村、服務區與場站商場具需求支撐。2. 公司自揭114年度計畫將小墾丁渡假村朝星空、生態、研學、親子共學、溫泉主題與網路通路行銷推進；海生館強化展覽、夜宿活動、科教、賣場招商與生物展示；服務區導入在地食材、道農市集、食安檢驗、便當品牌、AI/自助點餐與結帳、異業結合；醫院美食廣場及公路驛站持續拓點。3. 中長期標案與投資案包括國立海洋生物博物館委託經營至2030年12月31日，中壢/湖口服務區至2028年5月31日，古坑服務區至2031年8月31日，台東大武之心南迴休憩區至2029年9月26日，台中海洋生態館OT至2043年12月31日，安平港水岸複合觀光遊憩區與平實轉運站案期較長，提供長期營運權基礎。4. 不動產開發方面，公司揭露文福段及新福七小段等地已規劃籌建並預先近完售，若認列進度順利，可能挹注短中期營收；2026年第一季公告營收6.21億元但仍每股虧損0.09元，2026年前5月月營收累計大幅年增，推測部分來自建案或一次性收入認列，需以後續財報確認。主要風險包括：國旅消費外流與住宿價格競爭、陸客未全面恢復及日圓/周邊短程旅遊競爭、服務區權利金與租金負擔、銀行借款利率與財務成本、近年連續虧損導致資產減損評估壓力、食安與服務品質風險、OT/BOT履約及續約風險、不動產景氣與限貸政策變化、颱風地震等天災對墾丁/屏東/台東景點及交通動線的影響。整體而言，2025-2028營收成長機會來自營運據點擴張與建案認列，但常態獲利能力仍需觀察服務區與休閒娛樂本業是否能扭轉營業損失。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 國立海洋生物博物館 政府/公立館舍委託經營契約來源，南仁湖經營海生館至119年12月31日；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 交通部高速公路局 國道服務區委託經營權來源，包括中壢、湖口、古坑等服務區/休息站；政府機關，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 台東縣政府 台東大武之心南迴休憩區委託經營權來源；政府機關，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 臺中市政府 台中海洋生態館營運移轉OT案契約來源；政府機關，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 臺灣港務股份有限公司高雄港務分公司 安平港水岸複合觀光遊憩區租賃、投資興建與地上權相關契約來源；國營事業，非上市櫃公司。
  • 臺南市政府 平實綜合轉運站新建營運轉移投資契約來源；政府機關，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 國立臺灣大學醫學院附設醫院新竹臺大分院 醫院美食街與商店委託經營場域來源；公立醫療機構，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 萊爾富國際股份有限公司 便利商店特許加盟合作方，涉及古坑、中壢、湖口、楊梅等服務區/休息站門市；未上市櫃。
  • 尚發營造股份有限公司 年報列示為工程承攬及設備採購合作方，承作七股漁電共生、艾美巨蛋、文山艾美等工程；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 食材、農特產品、餐飲與專櫃商品供應商 服務區、商場、渡假村及海生館餐飲零售所需供應商；公司揭露會進行供應商評鑑、訪廠、食材溯源與SGS抽檢，未揭露單一重大供應商。
Downstream
  • 散客、國旅與入境旅客 公司年報揭露主要客源為散客，無單一重大客戶；為小墾丁渡假村、海生館、海洋館與觀光場域之終端消費者。
  • 國道用路人與公路旅客 中壢、湖口、古坑、楊梅、大武之心等服務區/休憩區之餐飲、商品、休憩服務終端客群。
  • 醫院員工、病患與訪客 臺大醫院新竹分院美食街等醫療院所商場之終端消費者；公司並提供醫院APP員工訂餐與外送服務。
  • 專櫃、餐飲品牌與商場承租業者 服務區、交通場站、海生館與醫院美食街之招商/專櫃合作對象；公司以專櫃營業額及合約約定成本率或抽成認列收入。
  • 住宅與不動產買方 公司不動產開發案之終端買方；文福段、新福七小段等建案被揭露已規劃籌建並預先近完售。

Competitors

Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.