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6469

大樹 Biotech & Healthcare As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 大樹 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 大樹 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 36th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.2%.
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 44th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 3th percentile.
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 3.1% of volume (net buy).

Chip flow

Bearish -0.34

BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

Distribution to retail — bearish
中國信託-中壢 holds 238 lots
sellers have 336 lots left, ~68 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -19% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 中國信託-中壢 has accumulated 238 lots since the start (sold 10%), still adding.
Main distributor 美林 peaked at 390 lots, has sold 32%, 267 left, paused recently.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.83pp, mid holders -4, retail +3.35pp — drifting down to retail.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -619 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

中國信託-中壢華南永昌-彰化凱基-三峽群益金鼎-新莊元大-歸仁國票-北高雄

Distributing

美林台灣摩根士丹利兆豐-鹿港國泰-敦南統一富邦-新竹

Desks

own scale

新加坡商瑞銀美商高盛摩根大通港商麥格理

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

中國信託-中壢 +238

sold 10%· still adding
華南永昌-彰化 +209

sold 0%· still adding
凱基-三峽 +206

sold 4%
群益金鼎-新莊 +153

sold 0%· still adding
元大-歸仁 +125

sold 12%
國票-北高雄 +95

sold 17%

Distributing

美林 267 left

sold 32%· paused recently
台灣摩根士丹利 181 left

sold 34%· paused recently
兆豐-鹿港 168 left

sold 30%· paused recently
國泰-敦南 73 left

sold 62%· ~49 sessions to clear
統一 28 left

sold 81%· paused recently
富邦-新竹 84 left

sold 32%· paused recently

Desks

新加坡商瑞銀 -2,572

hedge desk · will cover
美商高盛 -1,307

hedge desk · will cover
摩根大通 -1,045

hedge desk · will cover
港商麥格理 -820

hedge desk · will cover

Still selling 336 lots ~68 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +1,017 absorbed / -210 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -196 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 Insufficient data Now

20-40 +159.8%

40-60 +33.7%

60-80 +14%

80-100 +52.3%

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here	5	Insufficient data
20-40	58	+159.8%	+197.1%	100%	+111.3%
40-60	305	+33.7%	+21.6%	51.5%	-8.9%
60-80	271	+14%	+19.6%	59.8%	-12%
80-100	863	+52.3%	+47.4%	67.9%	+37.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 19.79, at the 3.0th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

Insufficient data
(8d)

+4.5%

Win rate 46.9% Excess -15.4%

273d

+34.9%

Win rate 89.2% Excess +27.4%

778d

60-day momentum down

Now

-7%

Win rate 29.6% Excess -51.7%

71d

-4.9%

Win rate 38.8% Excess -13.6%

245d

-3.1%

Win rate 33.6% Excess -15%

247d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 71 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 7%, win rate 29.6%, lagged the market by 51.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +14.44%, win rate 57.9%, beating the market by +11.03 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

99 times historically; 60-day forward avg +10.84%, win rate 72%, beating the market by +7.45 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

39 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.04%, win rate 65.8%, beating the market by +5.61 pts on average.

What does 大樹 do? Company profile

生技醫療業；連鎖藥局與健康照護零售通路上櫃

Overview

6469 對應證券為大樹醫藥股份有限公司普通股，股票簡稱大樹，櫃買中心上櫃公司。公司前身為添進藥業股份有限公司，成立於 2001 年 5 月 15 日，興櫃日期為 2014 年 12 月 29 日，上櫃日期為 2016 年 3 月 30 日。總部位於桃園市桃園區復興路 186 號 18 樓。董事長兼總經理為創辦人鄭明龍，發言人為副總經理盧山峰。官方投資人專區揭露截至查詢時實收資本額為新台幣 1,496,992,020 元，已發行普通股 149,699,202 股，無特別股，簽證會計師事務所為安永聯合會計師事務所。主要經營業務為銷售各式藥品、保健食品、婦嬰用品、化妝品之連鎖通路。官方成長歷程顯示，2025 年藥局含機場門市突破 426 家，其中藥局 411 家、便利商店複合式藥局 3 家、量販店中店 12 家，並整併博登藥局連鎖體系、加盟合作約 54 家；同年與中國大陸漱玉平民大藥房合作開設 5 家大樹漱玉實體門市，並打造大樹聽力中心。官方主要股東名單日期為 2025 年 3 月 31 日，前十大包含峻韋投資有限公司 12.86%、禎翰投資有限公司 10.72%、豪成投資股份有限公司 7.48%、饗賓餐旅事業股份有限公司 4.86%、日龍投資有限公司 2.72%、鄭明龍 2.51%、劉淑亮 1.43%、新制勞工退休金 1.42%、盧山峰 1.06%、中國信託商業銀行受託保管杉控股株式會社投資專戶 0.75%。員工規模在不同來源與時點差異大，2023 年法說會資料曾揭露截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日員工數 2,781 人；較新官方頁面未在可擷取文字中確認 2025 或 2026 員工數，因此不以此作為最新確數。

Business

大樹是台灣連鎖藥局與健康照護通路商，核心商業模式是以自營藥局門市、複合式門市、量販店中店、加盟合作體系及線上會員服務銷售商品與提供處方箋領藥、健康諮詢、婦幼與銀髮照護、營養保健、醫療器材、寵物健康、聽力中心等服務。官方及法說資料顯示，大樹的營業項目包含健保處方籤收受服務的實體藥局經營、婦幼健康品類線上購物平台、寵物商品零售及美容等相關零售服務。2025 年營收分布資料顯示，婦嬰用品約新台幣 6,408,211 千元、占 33.91%；保健藥品約 5,275,466 千元、占 27.92%；健保處方藥品約 3,141,989 千元、占 16.63%；健康照護用品約 2,820,618 千元、占 14.93%；其他約 1,249,632 千元、占 6.61%。2025 年全年合併營收約新台幣 18,874,365 千元，年增約 9.35%。2023 年永續報告書指出，大樹屬生技醫療產業下游藥局連鎖通路商，主要進貨對象以國內藥商及代理商為主，在地採購占總進貨量超過 99%，合作供應商超過 1,000 家，採分散採購，最大供應商交易金額約占進貨總額 10%。主要客戶為社區消費者、會員、婦嬰家庭、慢性處方箋領藥客群、銀髮與健康照護需求客群，終端應用涵蓋藥品、保健食品、婦嬰用品、醫療器材、健康照護用品、美妝生活用品、寵物健康與聽力照護服務。通路合作方面，曾與全家便利商店、量販店中店、SUGI 杉藥局商品與品牌合作等模式擴大接觸點。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年主要展望可分為展店恢復、品類增量、健康服務平台化與海外試點。2025 年公司在競爭仍激烈與藥師人力短缺下維持較保守展店，全年營收仍成長至約 188.7 億元，年底全台門市約 428 家，全年淨增約 42 家。2026 年 3 月法說與媒體報導指出，管理層認為 2023 至 2025 年藥局市場不理性搶人、搶店與削價競爭逐步趨緩，大樹費用率上升進入平緩期，新事業由投入期轉入複製期，品類與服務擴充已對沖少子化壓力，2026 年起將重返較正常成長軌道。展店方面，公司目標 2026 至 2027 年將台灣門市推進至約 520 家，2030 年朝 700 家，長期 2035 年挑戰 1,000 家；2028 年屬全台複製與平台化整合的中段期。品類方面，管理層提出以日系 SUGI 商品、美容保養、寵物健康、聽力中心、慢病管理、疾病預防、健康諮詢等服務提高單店營收與毛利額；2026 年 7 月台灣開放動物用人藥政策被公司視為寵物健康服務放大的重要契機，擬將既有寵物團隊與全台 400 多家藥局串聯，並對接寵物醫院及診所。平台方面，公司提出「千人千面、千廠千店」的精準健康交易平台，2025 年完成初期平台，2026 至 2027 年導入與優化 OMO 藥局無界限服務，2028 至 2030 年朝大健康產業服務整合。海外方面，中國大陸已完成 5 家示範店，2026 至 2027 年規劃推廣加盟與優化，2028 至 2030 年長期目標朝 1,000 家加盟；自有品牌海外發展則規劃 2025 年馬來西亞啟動，2026 至 2027 年布局大陸與東南亞，2028 至 2030 年複製至 5 個品牌、5 個國家或地區。主要風險包括連鎖藥局價格競爭再起、藥師與專業人力短缺、租金與人事成本上升、少子化壓抑婦嬰用品需求、展店密度提高造成單店稀釋、海外加盟模式與中國大陸法規及在地化不確定性、寵物用藥政策落地速度與醫療合作執行風險、平台化投資回收期較長。

Supply Chain

Upstream

國內藥商及代理商主要進貨來源；永續報告書揭露大樹主要進貨商以國內藥商及代理商為主，在地採購占總進貨量超過 99%，合作供應商超過 1,000 家，採分散採購。未揭露完整單一供應商名單。
藥品、保健食品、醫療器材、美容保養與婦嬰用品供應商供應大樹門市銷售品類；公司要求供應商提供法規許可文件，並透過資格審查、樣品評估、品類小組審核與必要訪廠確保品質。多數未揭露上市櫃代號。
SUGI 杉藥局／杉控股株式會社日本上市企業體系，非台股掛牌；大樹股東名單出現杉控股投資專戶，且大樹通路販售 S-SELECT 等日系商品，屬商品與品牌合作關係。

Downstream

一般消費者與會員主要終端客戶，包含婦嬰家庭、慢性病處方箋領藥者、銀髮照護、保健食品、醫材、美容保養、寵物健康與聽力服務需求客群。
醫院、診所與健保處方箋客群下游需求來源與服務場景；大樹提供健保處方籤收受與慢箋領藥服務，客流部分來自醫療院所處方與慢病管理需求，非單一台股公司。
全家便利商店股份有限公司 5903 台股上櫃公司；曾與大樹合作便利商店複合式藥局門市，屬通路合作與場域導流關係。
量販店、超市與複合店通路大樹設有量販店中店及不同店型，包含商圈店、社區店、商辦店、超市複合店等；具體合作對象多未完整公開，非全部為台股掛牌公司。

Competitors

杏一醫療用品股份有限公司 4175 台股上櫃公司；醫療用品、照護、保健與藥局相關通路，與大樹在醫療照護用品、保健及藥局零售場景競爭。
諾貝兒寶貝股份有限公司 6844 台股上櫃公司，旗下丁丁藥局；主要營業項目為連鎖藥局經營，婦嬰、健康照護與藥妝品類與大樹高度重疊。
佑全藥品股份有限公司 6929 台股上櫃公司；旗下佑全保健藥妝、健康人生藥局等連鎖通路，與大樹在藥品、保健食品、婦嬰用品、醫材及藥妝零售競爭。
統一生活事業股份有限公司／康是美 2912 康是美為統一超商體系藥妝通路，統一超商為台股上市公司；康是美跨入藥局市場後，與大樹在藥妝、保健與藥局零售場景競爭。
躍獅連鎖藥局 8403 躍獅為敏盛醫療體系相關通路，媒體報導曾提及盛弘旗下躍獅；盛弘為台股上櫃公司。競爭關係主要在連鎖藥局與處方箋服務。
屈臣氏 A.S. Watson 集團旗下藥妝通路，非台股掛牌；與大樹在藥妝、美容保養、保健品與部分藥局服務競爭。

Sources（22）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.