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6548

長科* Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 長科* to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 25Quality 76Growth 78Momentum 94Chips 91

Is 長科* a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 72th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.2%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 77th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 88th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 10.6% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 36.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.68
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 富邦證券 holds 7,083 lots
  • sellers have 4,924 lots left, ~93 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +77% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 富邦證券 has accumulated 7,083 lots since the start (sold 13%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 2,676 lots, has sold 46%, 1,452 left, ~30 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.45pp, mid holders +11, retail -2.08pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -7,891 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
富邦證券中國信託群益金鼎摩根大通港商野村國泰證券
Distributing
元大證券新加坡商瑞銀美商高盛大展台新元大-竹科
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利凱基-台北港商麥格理宏遠證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 富邦證券 +7,083
    sold 13%
  • 中國信託 +3,046
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎 +2,914
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +2,728
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 港商野村 +2,088
    sold 16%
  • 國泰證券 +1,577
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 元大證券 1,452 left
    sold 46%· ~30 sessions to clear
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 1,437 left
    sold 44%· ~39 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 225 left
    sold 90%· ~46 sessions to clear
  • 大展 152 left
    sold 90%· paused recently
  • 台新 712 left
    sold 51%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 元大-竹科 529 left
    sold 43%· paused recently

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -4,457
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -2,950
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 港商麥格理 -792
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 宏遠證券 -616
    unclassified
Still selling 4,924 lots ~93 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +6,983 absorbed / -2,686 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -4,868 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 36.65%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

47 historical occurrences (since 2016-09-13)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 47.6%, Sample 42, Median 0%, Excess +3.31%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 55%, Sample 40, Median +0.67%, Excess +3.72%, Beat mkt rate 45%；120-day: Win 45%, Sample 40, Median -2.84%, Excess +3.84%, Beat mkt rate 40%

120 days after: historical avg +5.24%

20-day +3.85%
60-day +4.6%
120-day +5.24%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.6%
55%
45%
Sample
42
40
40
Median
0%
+0.67%
-2.84%
Excess
+3.31%
+3.72%
+3.84%
Beat mkt rate
50%
45%
40%

Over 40 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.24%, beat the market by 3.84 pts; win rate 45%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 178+20.4% +12.3% 92.7% -3.5%
20-40 450+59.5% +32.6% 90.7% +17.1%
40-60 516+35.1% +7.7% 64.9% +16.9%
60-80 222+22.8% +15.9% 51.8% +19.5%
80-100 You are here0Insufficient data

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 54.33, at the 87.6th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
0%
Win rate 44.7% Excess -13.1%
132d
+24.6%
Win rate 65.9% Excess +11.3%
640d
Now
+25.4%
Win rate 64.9% Excess -2.1%
74d
60-day momentum down
+22.7%
Win rate 73.4% Excess +7.7%
342d
+9.1%
Win rate 39.2% Excess +5%
296d
Insufficient data
(2d)

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 74 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 25.4%, win rate 64.9%, lagged the market by 2.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.99%, win rate 63.2%, beating the market by +1.47 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

40 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.76%, win rate 46.2%, beating the market by -1.19 pts on average.

What does 長科* do? Company profile

半導體業；半導體封裝材料、導線架 上櫃（櫃買中心 TPEx）

Overview

6548 對應證券為長科*，公司全名長華科技股份有限公司，屬櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司設立於 2009 年 12 月 24 日，總部與主要台灣廠區位於高雄市楠梓科技產業園區，2016 年 9 月 13 日掛牌上櫃。公司原從事 LED 導線架封裝材料，2017 年收購 SH Asia Pacific 及相關事業後跨入半導體金屬導線架並成為全球主要導線架供應商之一。公開基本資料顯示股本約新台幣 3.80 億元，股票面額為新台幣 0.4 元；截至 2024 年底集團總員工人數 2,260 人。2026 年 3 月董事會改選職務後，元耀能源科技代表人陳志宏接任董事長，洪全成專任總經理。主要股東依公司公告民國 114 年 3 月 30 日資料，包括長華電材股份有限公司持股 47.80%、元耀能源科技 3.78%、倍斯捷投資 3.72%、黃修權 3.32%、興正投資 1.95%、新欣投資 1.69%、戴頌琪 1.45%、易華電子 1.45%、戴頌雯 1.13%、雙宸投資 1.05%。公司營運據點包括高雄多座廠區、中國蘇州、成都、馬來西亞、新加坡與上海等。

Business

長科*主要研發、製造與銷售半導體導線架及相關封裝材料，產品包含 IC 引腳導線架（QFP、SO Series、SOT、IPM/Power）、IC 無引腳導線架（QFN、Wettable Flank QFN）、特殊表面處理、EMC LED 導線架與 Pre-Mold 導線架。導線架是半導體封裝中連接晶片與外部電路的重要金屬載體，客戶主要為封測代工廠、IDM 廠及半導體企業。依 2025 年公司法說會揭露，全年產品組合約為 IC 30%、QFN 29%、Discrete 17%、QFP 15%、EMC/LED 9%；2026 年第一季產品組合為 IC 32%、QFN 30%、Discrete 18%、QFP 11%、EMC/LED 9%。製程別方面，2025 年約蝕刻 54%、沖壓 46%；2026 年第一季約蝕刻 56%、沖壓 44%。應用別方面，2025 年約 3C 48%、車用 25%、工控 24%、其他 3%；2026 年第一季約 3C 48%、工控 25%、車用 24%。商業模式以 B2B 零組件供應為主，透過精密模具、沖壓、蝕刻、電鍍與表面處理等能力供應全球封裝產業鏈；公司曾獲日月光、德州儀器、安森美等客戶或半導體企業供應商獎項，但完整客戶名單與各客戶營收占比未完整公開。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年長科*合併營收 134.28 億元、年增 12%，本業需求回溫，但受貴金屬與匯率波動影響，全年歸屬母公司淨利 15.03 億元、年減 21%，EPS 1.63 元。2026 年第一季營收 36.72 億元、季增 5%、年增 15%，毛利率 21.7%，EPS 0.51 元；公司與媒體報導均指出各產品線需求穩健，QFN、IC、Discrete、EMC/LED 及電源管理相關導線架受惠網通、車用、工控、資料中心電源管理與高階封裝需求。公司因應金、銀、鈀、銅等原物料成本上升，自 2025 年第四季與 2026 年第一季起陸續調整 LED、IC、EMC LED 等產品報價，價格轉嫁能否完整反映為 2026 年毛利率關鍵。中期至 2028 年，成長動能主要來自 QFN/aQFN 滲透率提升、車用電子與工控需求、WiFi 7/網通與資料中心電源管理、Mini LED/車用顯示與 Pre-Mold/Wettable Flank 等高階應用，以及馬來西亞與中國山東威海等海外擴產。主要風險包括貴金屬與銅價大幅波動、匯率變動、景氣循環造成封測與 IDM 客戶拉貨調整、導線架被 IC 載板或其他封裝方案部分替代、同業擴產造成價格競爭、海外投資執行與地緣政治風險。2027 至 2028 年尚未見公司正式量化財測，因此僅能以產業趨勢與公司公開擴產方向推估，不能視為公司指引。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 長華電材股份有限公司 8070 長科*母公司與最大股東，持股約 47.80%；長華集團具封裝材料與設備代理業務，與長科*在半導體材料、設備與集團資源上具關係。
  • 銅合金材料供應商（未揭露具體名單） 導線架主要材料包含 C194、C7025 等銅合金；公司產品規格揭露使用銅材，但未完整公開上游供應商名單。
  • 貴金屬與電鍍材料供應商（未揭露具體名單） 產品表面處理涉及銀、PPF、粗化銀、鈀等材料；2025 至 2026 年金、銀、鈀等價格波動為公司成本與報價調整的重要因素，具體供應商未完整公開。
  • 高性能工程塑料與封裝材料供應商（未揭露具體名單） EMC 與 Pre-Mold 導線架結合高性能工程塑料與銅導線架，用於 LED、LASER、高功率 IC 與車用電子等；具體供應商未公開。
  • 精密模具、沖壓、蝕刻與電鍍設備供應商（未揭露具體名單） 公司競爭力來自精密模具設計、沖壓、蝕刻與表面處理製程；設備供應鏈未完整揭露。
Downstream
  • 日月光投資控股股份有限公司 3711 全球封測大廠；長科*曾獲日月光最佳供應商獎，屬導線架下游封測客戶或重要關係客戶。
  • Texas Instruments Incorporated 美國上市 IDM/類比與嵌入式半導體公司；長科*曾獲德州儀器供應商獎，屬下游半導體客戶關係。
  • onsemi 美國上市半導體公司；長科*曾獲安森美半導體 Back End 直接材料最佳供應商，屬下游半導體客戶關係。
  • 全球封測代工廠、IDM 與 IC 設計客戶 導線架主要供應 QFN、QFP、SOT、Discrete、EMC/LED 等封裝需求，終端應用涵蓋 3C、網通、車用電子、工控、醫療、Mini LED、資料中心電源管理等；完整客戶名單與占比未公開。

Competitors

  • 順德工業股份有限公司 2351 台股上市導線架與沖壓零組件廠，為台灣導線架主要競爭者之一，功率與車用導線架具競爭力。
  • 界霖科技股份有限公司 5285 台股上市導線架廠，聚焦功率半導體、車用與工業應用，為長科*在導線架市場的主要台灣同業。
  • 一詮精密工業股份有限公司 2486 台股上市 LED 導線架、散熱與精密金屬零件廠，與長科*在 LED/封裝金屬材料部分產品線具競爭或替代關係。
  • Mitsui High-tec, Inc. 日本上市導線架與精密零組件大廠，非台股掛牌；為全球導線架主要競爭者。
  • Shinko Electric Industries Co., Ltd. 日本半導體封裝材料與基板業者，非台股掛牌；在封裝材料與導線架相關市場具競爭關係。
  • HDS 韓國導線架相關業者，非台股掛牌；公開資料將其列為國外 IC 導線架同業之一。
Sources（20）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.