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6776

展碁國際 Electronics Distribution As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 展碁國際 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 68Quality 54Growth 84Momentum 30Chips 88

Is 展碁國際 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 34th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.6%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 24th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 88th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 9.2% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 52.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral -0.07
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 凱基-台北 holds 680 lots
  • sellers have 643 lots left, ~162 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -4% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-台北 has accumulated 680 lots since the start (sold 20%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 341 lots, has sold 26%, 254 left, ~67 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.54pp, mid holders +1, retail +0.00pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -84 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-台北新加坡商瑞銀群益金鼎-瑞豐永豐金-台南新光-台南台灣摩根士丹利
Distributing
摩根大通美商高盛台新證券台新-松江中國信託-忠孝元大-桃興
Desks
own scale
元大-土城永寧凱基國票-北高雄統一-南京
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-台北 +680
    sold 20%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +249
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎-瑞豐 +221
    sold 3%
  • 永豐金-台南 +158
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 新光-台南 +151
    sold 10%
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +138
    sold 22%

Distributing

  • 摩根大通 254 left
    sold 26%· ~67 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 125 left
    sold 44%· paused recently
  • 台新證券 79 left
    sold 53%· paused recently
  • 台新-松江 51 left
    sold 66%· paused recently
  • 中國信託-忠孝 97 left
    sold 33%· ~162 sessions to clear
  • 元大-桃興 78 left
    sold 41%· ~17 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 元大-土城永寧 -659
    unclassified
  • 凱基 -355
    unclassified
  • 國票-北高雄 -243
    unclassified
  • 統一-南京 -207
    unclassified
Still selling 643 lots ~162 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +736 absorbed / -217 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 52.05%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

30 historical occurrences (since 2021-03-31)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 21, Median +0.72%, Excess -2.58%, Beat mkt rate 38.1%；60-day: Win 36.8%, Sample 19, Median -1.69%, Excess -2.66%, Beat mkt rate 63.2%；120-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 18, Median +0.25%, Excess -0.05%, Beat mkt rate 61.1%

120 days after: historical avg -2.47%

20-day -1.93%
60-day -2.61%
120-day -2.47%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.1%
36.8%
55.6%
Sample
21
19
18
Median
+0.72%
-1.69%
+0.25%
Excess
-2.58%
-2.66%
-0.05%
Beat mkt rate
38.1%
63.2%
61.1%

Over 18 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 2.47%, lagged the market by 0.05 pts; win rate 55.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 0Insufficient data
20-40 1Insufficient data
40-60 79+4.7% +3.3% 68.4% -16.1%
60-80 93-1.8% -4.6% 24.7% -22.9%
80-100 You are here106+3.3% +6.1% 69.8% -58.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 14.65, at the 88.5th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(0d)
Insufficient data
(12d)
-0.8%
Win rate 47.7% Excess -15.6%
155d
60-day momentum down
Insufficient data
(1d)
+4.7%
Win rate 73.9% Excess -13.1%
111d
Now
+2%
Win rate 48.3% Excess -22.9%
120d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 120 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 2%, win rate 48.3%, lagged the market by 22.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

6 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.78%, win rate 33.3%, beating the market by -14.27 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.59%, win rate 52.9%, beating the market by -4.21 pts on average.

What does 展碁國際 do? Company profile

電子通路業 上市（臺灣證券交易所）

Overview

6776 對應證券為展碁國際，屬臺灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司統一編號 20773257，官方年報與公司資料顯示設立日為 1977-12-22，2021-03-31 掛牌上市；公司官網新版簡介另寫成立於 1997 年，推測係指宏碁集團通路事業整併或品牌化後沿革，基礎設立日期以公開資訊與年報為準。總部/台北總公司位於台北市南港區南港路三段9號10-12樓，另有高雄分公司、北區物流中心與南區物流中心。董事長截至 2026-05-26 起由宏碁股份有限公司法人代表人林佳璋接任，總經理亦為林佳璋，發言人鄭明琪。公司為宏碁集團旗下 3C 與資訊產品通路代理商；2024 年報列示 2024 年底實收股本為 815,814 千元，2026 年公開股市資料則顯示現增後資本額約 9.16 億元、已發行普通股約 91,581,430 股。員工規模依 2024 年報截至 2025-03-31 為 445 人。主要股東以宏碁股份有限公司為最大股東，2024 年報列示持股 48,073,116 股、58.93%；其他前十大股東包括聖化股份有限公司、林佳璋、木實投資有限公司、中盈投資開發股份有限公司等，但除宏碁外未見單一逾 10% 大股東。

Business

展碁國際是專業電子產品通路代理商，非製造業。主要業務為 3C 電腦週邊、電腦、電腦軟體、遊戲機、家電、系統整合與部分橡膠製品等產品代理及銷售，商業模式為取得國內外品牌代理/經銷授權，向下游經銷商、3C 連鎖、電商、企業客戶與系統整合通路銷售，並提供備貨、物流配送、技術支援、售後維修、教育訓練、授信管理與 B2B 平台服務。2024 年營收 255.13 億元，年增 12.0%；2024 年產品營收結構為：橡膠及各類橡膠製品 23.79%、系統產品 23.36%、資訊週邊產品 18.55%、生活科技產品 16.31%、軟體產品 13.34%、系統整合產品 4.38%、其他 0.27%。主要商品包括螢幕、印表機與耗材、主機板、顯示卡、硬碟、記憶卡、視訊系統、桌機、筆電、平板、手機、作業系統、防毒軟體、Office、繪圖與字型軟體、遊戲主機/遊戲軟體、電視、冰箱、洗衣機、冷氣、空氣清淨機、除濕機、AI GPU 伺服器/工作站、網路資安、儲存、不斷電/儲能節電系統、機房設備與數位看板。官網稱代理超過 150 個國內外品牌，活躍交易客戶超過 3,000 家；年報另提到面對 6,000 多家下游經銷商需嚴謹授信與物流配送。重要品牌/產品線包括 Apple、acer、AMD、ADATA、Apacer、AVer、AOPEN、CyberPower、Microsoft、Adobe、ESET、Kaspersky、Trend Micro、Nintendo、Anker/eufy、Amazfit、Moxa、QNAP、Seagate、NETGEAR、LG、小米、Philips、Sharp、Whirlpool 等。2024 年上市、上櫃及興櫃電子通路業合計營收約 3.18 兆元，展碁銷售額占比約 0.80%。2025 年公司新聞/法說整理顯示全年營收達約 293 億元、EPS 4.20 元、擬配現金股利 3 元，成長主因包含任天堂產品、記憶體拉貨、AI/商用 PC、Apple 專案與訂閱制軟體。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年展望與已揭露結果：公司 2024 年報對 2025 年營業計畫重點為強化既有代理產品線、引進新創商品、開發新營運模式與新通路、深化夥伴合作、投資數位轉型與創新技術；市場動能來自 AI PC、AI 工作站/伺服器、雲端服務、資安、工業控制/IIoT 資安、節能家電、儲能節電與任天堂 Switch 2 新機週期。2026 年展望：公司官網新聞與法說整理指出 2026 年營運受惠記憶體漲價、AI 商用需求、Apple 產品、商務換機潮、資料中心基礎建設、訂閱制軟體與 Nintendo 相關商品，市場文章整理管理層目標為全年營收挑戰 350 億元；不斷電系統/UPS、儲能節電與 CyberPower 合作亦是系統整合與 ESG 解決方案延伸。2027-2028 年推估：若 AI PC 滲透率提升、企業軟體訂閱與資安支出維持成長、雲端/資料中心與工業網通需求延續，展碁可望由單純 3C 通路向較高附加價值的軟體、資安、雲端、系統整合與售後服務提高占比；生活科技/家電則受房市、節能補助與消費景氣影響。主要風險包括電子通路業毛利率低且價格競爭激烈、產品生命週期短造成庫存跌價、記憶體/零組件價格反轉、代理品牌更替或授權條款變動、匯率與利率、消費性電子需求波動、供應鏈/地緣政治、下游客戶授信風險、物流與倉儲費用上升。年報揭露 2022-2023/2024 未有單一供應商進貨占比或單一客戶營收占比達 10%，降低集中風險，但也反映業務高度仰賴多品牌、多品項管理能力。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 宏碁股份有限公司 2353 最大股東與宏碁集團關係企業，展碁代理 acer 等資訊設備並承接集團通路資源。
  • 蘋果公司 Apple Inc. 美國上市公司；展碁代理/銷售 Apple 商用與消費性產品，2024 年報提及針對 Apple 進行市場教育活動。
  • 微軟 Microsoft 美國上市公司；年報重要契約列示授權於台灣境內販售 Microsoft 產品，屬應用軟體與雲端服務上游原廠。
  • Adobe Systems Software Ireland Limited Adobe 集團海外公司；年報重要契約列示授權於台灣境內販售 Adobe 產品，Adobe VMP 平台為軟體訂閱業務重點。
  • 任天堂 Nintendo 日本上市公司；展碁數位娛樂代理品牌之一，Switch 2 新機週期為 2025-2026 成長動能之一。
  • 威剛科技股份有限公司 3260 記憶體、SSD、儲存裝置品牌供應商；展碁官網列為資訊設備品牌，年報亦提到 SSD 相關產品代理或銷售。
  • 宇瞻科技股份有限公司 8271 記憶體與儲存產品供應商；展碁官網列為資訊設備品牌。
  • 圓展科技股份有限公司 3669 視訊會議與影像設備供應商；展碁官網列為資訊設備品牌。
  • 建碁股份有限公司 3046 AOPEN 品牌供應商；展碁官網資訊設備與系統整合品牌均列示 AOPEN。
  • 微星科技股份有限公司 2377 電競與電腦硬體品牌供應商；展碁官網數位娛樂品牌列示 msi。
  • 友訊科技股份有限公司 2332 網通設備品牌供應商；公司官網新聞提及 D-Link M95 等 Wi-Fi 7 產品。
  • 麗臺科技股份有限公司 2465 AI 工作站/顯示與專業運算產品供應商；2024 年報提及麗臺 AI 工作站帶動相關周邊需求。
  • 碩天科技股份有限公司 3617 CyberPower 不斷電系統/電源管理相關產品供應商；2024 年報與 2026 官網新聞均提及 CyberPower/碩天不斷電系統。
  • 四零四科技 Moxa 工業網通與自動化連網品牌；展碁官網列為系統整合品牌，年報提及 MOXA 技術顧問與需求評估。
  • QNAP 未上市台灣儲存/NAS 品牌；展碁官網列為系統整合品牌。
Downstream
  • 燦坤實業股份有限公司 2430 3C 連鎖通路客戶；年報重要契約列示供應代理及經銷產品至燦坤通路銷售。
  • 富邦媒體科技股份有限公司 8454 momo 電商通路客戶；年報重要契約列示供應代理及經銷產品至 MoMo 通路銷售。
  • 經銷門市與一般通路商 未逐一揭露名稱；公司官網稱服務活躍交易客戶超過 3,000 家，年報提及面對 6,000 多家下游經銷商。
  • 3C 連鎖門市、大型電商平台與電視購物頻道 未逐一揭露名稱；為展碁資訊設備、軟體、數位娛樂與家電產品的主要銷售通路。
  • 企業客戶、系統整合商與加值服務商 未逐一揭露名稱；承接 AI PC、AI 工作站/伺服器、雲端、資安、工業網通、UPS/儲能節電與機房設備需求。
  • 終端消費者與商用終端客戶 透過經銷、電商、連鎖與企業專案間接觸達；終端應用包含個人/商用 PC、遊戲娛樂、智慧家電、雲端軟體、資安與資料中心。

Competitors

Sources（18）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.